ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[TTheriot1975]

Can any promets or someone of knowledge give any details on the forecasts for the high and the trough? What has changed?

[Stormcenter]

oddly enough...I am not expert on the upper level charts (I did stay at a holiday inn recently though)...But I would appear that in the short term, like tomorrow night ito Saturday morning the weakness is much greater in the eastern gulf. The Ridge still seems to start to build in a little later and slows it down but doesnt seem to actually stop it.

My brother just called me (from N.O) and he said Bob Breck (local weathercaster) just mention something about
a trough not possibly lifting out but digging in further down in the GOM. Is this what the new model guidence is seeing? If so look for a eastward shift tomorrow. I'm crossing my fingers and toes (again).

[ROCK]

OK this run is odd as it gets pushed back into the GOM and heads west?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

[PTPatrick]

I respectfully disagree JB...storms dont care what the cone says. This always comes up.... storm X jumped North of the forecast point, have to adjust the forecast north. nature has a way of correcting things and these storms often stair step. If NHC went moving their forecast east or west chasing ever model or wobble they would have no credibility and, probably go insane. The fact is just because it has moved a little more west now, doesnt make any model or forecast that brough it NW any less reliable...just means it may take some time to catch back up. Dont get me wrong...sometimes these little unexpected jogs make a huge difference...particularly if they happen near landfall...but for the most part and a think most pro mets would agree the whole argument taht a slight job will shift the landfall 4 days away is bunk.

[Air Force Met]

i was talking about overall runs, not just this storm...

It has been going slightly east the past 3 runs if memory serves...

Your memory is failing you.

27/06Z: Pieces towards SE LA...and pieces towards FL.
27/12Z: Goes towards Terrebonne Par then follows the coast to a south TX landfall.
27/18Z: Goes towards Terrebonne Par then follows the coast until it loses it.
28/00Z run: E LA
06Z run: Terrebonne Par. at 120 hrs.
12Z run: Goes towards Vermillion Par at 120...then follows the coast until it makes landfall south of Corpus at 192 hrs.
18Z run: Landfall back at Terrebonne Par at 108 hrs.
Tonight: Well...

[dwg71]

OK this run is odd as it gets pushed back into the GOM and heads west?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

wouldnt think it could restrengthen much after stayin 2 days inland, but who knows..

[Stormcenter]

OK this run is odd as it gets pushed back into the GOM and heads west?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

Okay now what? Is this believable?

[PTPatrick]

Back on the GFS model at 150 hours...this the same nonsense GFS called with FAY...dont these storms now they are supposed to go north at a certain latitude! not....craziness



AND PS...Enter Hanna Stage Right on the 168 hour...now GFS and EURO have her Gulfbound...GFS looks to be via the Florida Straight.

[Air Force Met]

OK this run is odd as it gets pushed back into the GOM and heads west?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

Snicker....

Doing the same thing as before...just further east.

Hey DWG...that is a trend...No? The trend is to push it due west near the coast. That IS the one thing about the GFS that has stayed consistant.

[ronjon]

00Z NAM seems to be getting its act together on Gus - Yes, I know its the NAM but at least its not driving the storm into the Mex now.

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif


off the coast of LA and heading west.....this is a jacked up run...

[TTheriot1975]

AFM...what is your thinking right now regarding the high? I understand the trend is to move it west...but my local met is concerned that the trough coming down is not going to be strong enought to erode the high. What is your take?

[PTPatrick]

just an observation...
If Gustav hits the coast and the bounces southwest...and we know Fay got pushed West and eventually more SW than storms typically do....and now it looks as though Hanna is going to come in southwest...that will make for some pretty crazy spaghetti maps of this years Hurriane season come November. I have never seen that many storms in one season move SW in this part of the Atlantic Basin(ie gulf/FL and East of the Bahamas) in one year.

[Stormcenter]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_162l.gif


off the coast of LA and heading west.....this is a jacked up run...

I guess ultimately it ends up going west like the other models. The NAM run is interesting
to say the least.

[Wx_Warrior]

That should tell you no one is out of the cone...

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_162l.gif


off the coast of LA and heading west.....this is a jacked up run...

I guess ultimately it ends up going west like the other models. The NAM run is interesting
to say the least.

NAM? that model hasnt nailed a tropical system since Alberto in 06....

[TTheriot1975]

AFM...what is your thinking right now regarding the high? I understand the trend is to move it west...but my local met is concerned that the trough coming down is not going to be strong enought to erode the high. What is your take?

[Stormcenter]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_162l.gif


off the coast of LA and heading west.....this is a jacked up run...

I guess ultimately it ends up going west like the other models. The NAM run is interesting
to say the least.

NAM? that model hasnt nailed a tropical system since Alberto in 06....

I guess then maybe it's due for one.

[ROCK]

quote="ROCK"]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_162l.gif


off the coast of LA and heading west.....this is a jacked up run...

I guess ultimately it ends up going west like the other models. The NAM run is interesting
to say the least.

NAM? that model hasnt nailed a tropical system since Alberto in 06....[/quote]

I guess then maybe it's due for one. [/quote]

[ronjon]

We might be seeing the first signs of ridging over FL being a little weaker in the models then suggested yesterday over the next 2-3 days. This may lead to a track a little more east at least into the northern GOM before it might drift west.