ATL: IKE Discussion

[Vortex]

its likely Ikewill be one beauty from space in the bahamas with the very low shear forecasted and an anticyclone building above

[Brent]

Latest pic at 7:15 PM EDT: Nice ring around eye.

Ike says "what shear?"

[jlauderdal]

18Z Nogaps very similar to GFS with a NW bahamas hit then turn North

i believe that is a slight shift to the east for the navy

Exactly the same

you are correct dest

[canetracker]

I totally agree if the GFS can't even see the intensity its not worth looking at right now. Other models that are based on GFS may not be worth it yet either. Recon will be out tomorrow and maybe we can get better data fed in.

[KWT]

Very impressive looking still cycloneye, I doubt thats 25kts of shear on Ike there, there is some as you can see the outflow is far better on the SE side but its not 25kts IMO.

[jlauderdal]

Latest pic at 7:15 PM EDT: Nice ring around eye.

Ike says "what shear?"

looks like its feeling something from the NW, could be the ridge pushing on ike which would make sense as we are looking for this wsw turn in the wee hours tomorrow

[tracyswfla]

My relative in Miami that I evacuated to for Charley is borderline hysterical. Her husband is away on business. This is a perfect ***** of a track if it happens because I want to go fetch her but could end up stuck there. Even worse the exit track to take her over here isn't of any help. It's good to try to prevent panic but there's no doubt the possible track is a possible civil emergency for south Florida. I hope some unexpected weakening occurs.

Well since I moved from Ft. Myers to NY I find it very difficult to watch this unfold. My mother is still in Estero and I wish she would just get on a plane now and get out of there. My thoughts and prayers are to all of you waiting and watching!

Tracy

[cape_escape]

My relative in Miami that I evacuated to for Charley is borderline hysterical. Her husband is away on business. This is a perfect ***** of a track if it happens because I want to go fetch her but could end up stuck there. Even worse the exit track to take her over here isn't of any help. It's good to try to prevent panic but there's no doubt the possible track is a possible civil emergency for south Florida. I hope some unexpected weakening occurs.

Sanibel - I know it will be a little better here - if track holds - for bringing your relative
over. BUT - won't we be getting a lot here too??? Am in a quandry right now as to
how to plan. Know we are 5 days out - but think preparation and plans are a good
thing right now - right or wrong?

I depend on your postings as we are on the same side of the track (so to speak)

I was thinking the same thing! My husband was just talking to my father-in-law, whom was here In the cape when Andrew went through Homestead, and he said it was really bad all the way up here! He also compared Ike to Andrew...not something that makes me feel to good seeing how he never thinks anything of a hurricane!

[Recurve]

If you want to go crazy with models, see the link that A3JR or whatever his/her handle is, posted:
[url]
http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/09-googlemaps.shtml[/url]

What I mainly see of the model I know --

GFDL and ilk: bouncing off Cuba. Bad track for the Keys, but Cuban land interaction could be a mitigating factor

HWFI, TVCN -- I don't even know what these models are, but they take it into South Florida around Miami.

BAMD, AVN, SHIP: Starting recurve through northern Bahamas and missing SFLa.

A while back models were showing a bounce off Hispaniola. Bad for them, possibly interference for miami.

I hope this isn't prophetic. The Middle and Upper Keys have been spared basically since 1965.

[Brent]

Latest pic at 7:15 PM EDT: Nice ring around eye.

Ike says "what shear?"

looks like its feeling something from the NW, could be the ridge pushing on ike which would make sense as we are looking for this wsw turn in the wee hours tomorrow

Definitely, but the rest of the storm(particularly the outflow to the southeast) looks great.

[KWT]

Yeah looks like the ridge is squashing the northern quadrant its been doing that for the last 6-9hrs and seems like the system is responding by turning westwards.

[fasterdisaster]

Latest pic at 7:15 PM EDT: Nice ring around eye.

Ike says "what shear?"

looks like its feeling something from the NW, could be the ridge pushing on ike which would make sense as we are looking for this wsw turn in the wee hours tomorrow

The thing is it has been for 18 hours now.

[jlauderdal]

max mayfield and the gang will be on at 8 with a special report, channel 10 miami

[dizzyfish]

max mayfield and the gang will be on at 8 with a special report, channel 10 miami

Please let us know what he says as all of us don't get the Miami channels up here in the sticks!

[cpdaman]

I hope this isn't prophetic. The Middle and Upper Keys have been spared basically since 1965.

seriously? i had no idea it's been that long for them, that is insane considering there location.

[Scorpion]

The models have shifted further south, but I think a track across Cuba is very unrealistic considering it is already north of that latitude now.

[jlauderdal]

max mayfield and the gang will be on at 8 with a special report, channel 10 miami

Please let us know what he says as all of us don't get the Miami channels up here in the sticks!

i will provide an executive report for the board although i dont expect anything earth shattering although max may comment on some of the new model data and this upcoming turn

[Vortex]

The trends today IMO really increase the threat to southern florida and the keys...

[thetruesms]

Very impressive looking still cycloneye, I doubt thats 25kts of shear on Ike there, there is some as you can see the outflow is far better on the SE side but its not 25kts IMO.

I believe it - According to CIMSS, the environment ahead of Ike has 10 knot winds from the southwest at low levels, and winds out of the northeast at 35 knots aloft. That western half looks well-structured, but that shear's the only thing keeping it from looking exactly like the eastern half

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[deltadog03]

Until the GFS can hold a cyclone, and a pretty good representation of one...I am not gonna buy the solution.