ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[AJC3]

Did any models forecast her to stall and intensify???

Actually, most of the global models showed this.

[bahamaswx]

I don't think she's really stalled. The LLC appears to have been moving along at a decent pace, to me, and is now on the NW corner of the blob, but still under the convection. WSW winds in grand turk would seem to support this.

[cpdaman]

I don't think she's really stalled. The LLC appears to have been moving along at a decent pace, to me, and is now on the NW corner of the blob, but still under the convection. WSW winds in grand turk would seem to support this.

yes i concur, i wish the microwave data was more up to date as this would stop the debate on my mind

[blp]

I can't remember the last time I saw white on this loop. Those are cold cloud tops. I can even see some rotation in the blob. If this keeps up I can see the LLC tucking under this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[cpdaman]

I can't remember the last time I saw white on this loop. Those are cold cloud tops. I can even see some rotation in the blob. If this keeps up I can see the LLC tucking under this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

bring your attention to the points 24/75 and draw a line to another point at 27.5/65

now speed loop up. notice that something is pressing downward on that line toward the end.

lets see if that is a convecton flatner or not. appears that may be a line dividing even higher shear.

[bahamaswx]

[BigA]

Unfortunately, the 2008 season seems to be following the motto "Go west, young storm."

[terrapintransit]

Unfortunately, the 2008 season seems to be following the motto "Go west, young storm."

Or as the late Jim Morrison once said "The West is the Best". Although in the case of a hurricane maybe it's the East....meaning...gone Phishing..

[Patrick99]

From a climatological perspective, the NHC track doesn't seem right to me. A storms where Hanna is, at this time of year, usually either wants to hit the Outer Banks/NC coast, or continue on into S. FL, from about Palm Bay S to the Keys......not coastal GA up to the GA/SC line. I don't think I place much faith in this in between scenario.

[jaxfladude]

New GFS run is heading to northern Florida, trailing NW, but with more of a west component rather than north:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml

Evil Jeremy, from now on and retroactively I will/have put those to say NFL landfall or close call etc. on my FOE list....

[blp]

I can't remember the last time I saw white on this loop. Those are cold cloud tops. I can even see some rotation in the blob. If this keeps up I can see the LLC tucking under this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

bring your attention to the points 24/75 and draw a line to another point at 27.5/65

now speed loop up. notice that something is pressing downward on that line toward the end.

lets see if that is a convecton flatner or not. appears that may be a line dividing even higher shear.

I think you are right that could be the nasty shear that was forecasted. Looks fierce... So I guess we enjoy this blow-up while it lasts....

[cpdaman]

with all the earlier debate to where the LLC actually is

can anyone intepret this microwave data imagery from about 3 hours ago (storm has not really moved since then)

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

24/72 ?

[bahamaswx]

Blob still growing, but only to the east. North and west side look like the shear is hampering it from expanding any further.

Winds are picking up here, gusting in the upper 30's.

[cpdaman]

Blob still growing, but only to the east. North and west side look like the shear is hampering it from expanding any further.

Winds are picking up here, gusting in the upper 30's.

ya but blob has not updated for last hour and a half thanks to the satelite eclipse

last frame was at 1145 pm (3:45utc)

at 215 that ends and we should have a new image out by 230-245 am. which will have a time stamp of 6:15 utc , lets see how are blob friend looks

[bahamaswx]

Blob still growing, but only to the east. North and west side look like the shear is hampering it from expanding any further.

Winds are picking up here, gusting in the upper 30's.

ya but blob has not updated for last hour and a half thanks to the satelite eclipse

last frame was at 1145 pm (3:45utc)

at 215 that ends and we should have a new image out by 230-245 am. which will have a time stamp of 6:15 utc , lets see how are blob friend looks

No, this satellite still updates during eclipse, it just gets pretty low-res:

[bahamaswx]

995mb in Providenciales. She's getting stronger.

[cpdaman]

995mb in Providenciales. She's getting stronger.

what is the longitude latitude there, and where are you getting the 995 from , if you don't mind, so i can add some things up.

edit appox 22/ 72.2


on latest IR2 you can see a center outline better at 615 utc putting center about 23.2 72

if 995 pressure is accurate , then pressure at center is probably 992 or so and strengthening pretty rapidly

[meteorologyman]

as soon as new image appear i'm going to bed. plz leave link for who ever finds 1

[cpdaman]

as soon as new image appear i'm going to bed. plz leave link for who ever finds 1

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

nite nite

[Hockey007]

Here's one.
And another one. She grew considerably eastward.