TC Bertha

[vacanechaser]

Jesse,you were right,look at the position from ssd:

06/1745 UTC 17.4N 46.4W T3.0/3.0 BERTHA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

thanx... i had been looking at the area north near 18 myself... then realized to look closer and see the low level circulation... due west young man- i mean young lady... lol.. the models are off already on the wnw movement.. they are imo not giving the ridge enough street cred!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

As Bertha moves over warmer waters, every burst of convection should make the storm more interesting.

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1729787#p1729787

Are the "early recurvature" proponents still sticking to their original forecasts and opinions despite contrary evidence?

['CaneFreak]

and the plot thickens....(drum roll)

[gatorcane]

I do agree that we need to see some kind of WNW turning and slowing of movement soon. To me WV loop analysis shows the ridge above Bertha is just too strong. Better yet, the "weakness" created by a weak trough of low pressure NW of Bertha seems to be having little impact.

I wonder if we will see a significant westward shift in the cone?

[vacanechaser]

and the plot thickens....(drum roll)

yea, the candian has some interesting thoughts!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

ATCF has a little higher latitud 17.8n.I think is the correct one as is more to the center of convection.

AL, 02, 2008070618, , BEST, 0, 178N, 462W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 30, 0, 75, 1012, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA

[HURAKAN]

The new GFDL is calling for Bertha to reach 30°N at 61.6°W. Right now I don't see that happening.

[MiamiensisWx]

It is also interesting to note one important detail. Although the NHC's five day cone has been shifting east based on the model "cluster", it has consistently remained on the extreme western end of the guidance. The NHC's discussions have also mentioned that their five day cone has remained along the western side of the model guidance as well. That fact is revealing to me. Additionally, I doubt the LLC has moved more WNW or further north; it was simply initialized too far south by some models. 17.8 N seems accurate to me per visible data.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Ivanhater]

No one is confident on what scenario will happen..track west or curve. Very much in the air at this point...

[Nimbus]

Look at the low level clouds feeding into the storm. Anyone think the circulation is looking a little elongated SW to NE?

[Ivanhater]

The new GFDL is calling for Bertha to reach 30°N at 61.6°W. Right now I don't see that happening.

I remember hearing last year, the GFDL runs somewhat off the GFS..I would imagine with the GFS tracking much further west, the next GFDL run will follow suite...

[KWT]

Hmmm well the NHC is on the lefthand side of the guidence still so may only slightly shift westwards. UKMO, GFS and CMC all in broad agreement on track whilst the GFDL and from what I hear the ECM are further east. We shall see but right now its still heading westward.

So its picked up 0.1N and nearly 4 degrees longitude!
If its going to recuvre as soon as the GFDL thinks its going to have to get more to the north pretty soon.

[wxman57]

That 18Z Dvorak position estimate does seem a bit off. I just don't see anything that far south. Here's a high-res McIDAS shot with 1-deg lat/lon markers and the position 17.4N/46.4W plotted. Can't really pinpoint any low clouds streaming in toward a center near that location. 17.8N is better, but that still looks too far south.

[RL3AO]

ATCF data

6 hour movement of 287 @ 19.2kt
24 hour movement of 278 @ 19.5kt

[Ed Mahmoud]

What is McIdas?

[cycloneye]

57,and what about 17.8n that ATCF has.

[KWT]

Yeah that does look a little too far south really, track then is 280 according to the NHC, still further south then the models are generally suggesting it should be, the GFDL has it at 286 right now. Its going to be interesting to see how this one pans out, some models really keen on recurve others suggests a possible threat?!

Edit- actually I see 6hr movement is 287, very close to the GFDL.

[wxman57]

What is McIdas?

McIDAS is software for displaying satellite imagery. "Man computer Interactive Data Access System", actually.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/mcidas/

[ExBailbonds]

Boy this has sure turned into a very intresting storm. Very difficult to forcast. When this first came off the coast of africa i thought it was doomed. I think Bertha will continue to surprise us .