Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[NDG]

Does the GFS have an intensity report?

No it does not, that's why there is the gfdl that run out of the gfs.
But the gfs is still coming out with maybe some light southerly shear in 24-48hrs, but I am not too sure if it will affect it too much, especially if it starts moving parallel to it may not feel the effects.

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFS = South Florida Landfall!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

[jlauderdal]

New GFS = South Florida Landfall!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

no way, lol...what is channel 7 going to do without bill kamal

[hurricanefloyd5]

If all but two models make FAY landfall in south florida then that mean the track shifts eastward if I am not mistaken. Thought models are doing a great job!!!!!!!!!

[jlauderdal]

If all but two models make FAY landfall in south florida then that mean the track shifts eastward if I am not mistaken. Thought models are doing a great job!!!!!!!!!

oy yeah, the models were awesome yesterday, they were great picking up the flow

[DESTRUCTION5]

New GFDL WAY EAST over Lake OKeeChobee to NC!

[NDG]

New gfdl big shift east, 30 miles west of Miami

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL:


WHXX04 KWBC 161128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM FAY 06L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.6 71.6 275./12.0
6 18.8 73.3 278./16.4
12 19.1 74.4 288./10.7
18 19.3 75.4 281./ 9.0
24 19.7 76.3 291./ 9.5
30 20.2 77.3 295./10.8
36 20.9 78.1 312./10.5
42 21.5 78.9 310./ 9.7
48 22.4 79.6 320./10.8
54 23.4 80.4 322./13.0
60 24.1 80.8 328./ 7.4
66 25.0 80.7 7./ 9.6
72 26.2 80.9 353./11.7
78 27.2 80.6 14./10.5
84 28.4 80.4 12./12.0
90 29.4 80.3 4./10.0
96 30.3 79.9 24./ 9.2
102 31.5 79.6 13./13.0
108 32.7 79.2 22./12.1
114 33.5 78.7 28./ 8.9
120 34.2 78.5 21./ 6.8
126 34.9 78.2 20./ 7.8


BIG SHIFT EAST

[Toyota Thundra]

WOW No subtle change there

[HURAKAN]

WOW. Look at the GFDL. I was expecting the cone to possible shift westward today. I'm really surprised.

[Thunder44]

6z/16 GFDL loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

BTW, I don't buy it yet.

[ronjon]

That latest GFDL run looks screwy. I don't see any strong trough to pitch it NE nor does the orientation of the mid-level ridge look correct. Either that ridge will be oriented N-S or N-NW-S-SE. Just doesn't add up with the upper air patterns. Now personally I'd like this storm to go inland well south of me but the track looks strange to me.

[cycloneye]

6z/16 GFDL loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

BTW, I don't buy it yet.

Why Thunder?

[DESTRUCTION5]

6z/16 GFDL loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

BTW, I don't buy it yet.

Looks Hard to believe but the GFS,EURO,and Now GFDL have shifted East...1100 AM Track has to have thid making landfall in SW FL AGain...Although weaker prob..

[NDG]

6z/16 GFDL loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

BTW, I don't buy it yet.

Me neither, the gfdl has been right bias with recurving storms, for example Bertha. I think that the NHC track is still a good bet.

[Trader Ron]

The GFDL run looks a little screwy, but who knows. In any event, The Keys could take quite a whack.

[Thunder44]

Take a look at 500mb. At 84hrs, the trough moving off the East Coast bypass the storm already before it moves north of 30N. I don't buy it making a sharp turn after hitting South FL, then racing northward along into the Carolina coast:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFDL Strength Model out yet?

[NDG]

The GFDL run looks a little screwy, but who knows. In any event, The Keys could take quite a whack.

Yeah especially Key West.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 06z GFDL animation that ends with second landfall in the Carolinas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation