ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Since the models don't seem to want to develop this, I guess it wouldn't be suprising it doesn't amount to much(strength wise)...

[gulfcoastdave]

Nat. Weather Service Office Mobile


MEANWHILE...AN UNPLEASANTRY IS THE REALITY THAT WE ARE MOVING INTO
THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON. ATLANTIC BASIN ACTIVITY IS RAMPING UP
WITH NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV NOW ON THE MAPS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER (21Z) TAKES GUSTAV NORTHWEST THROUGH HAITI TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THEN UP ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE BENDING BACK MORE TO
THE WEST AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA.
ALTHOUGH WE HAVEN`T GOT FAY OUT OF THE PICTURE YET...WILL HAVE TO BE
KEEPING A WATCH ON THIS ONE AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR GUSTAV TO
GET INTO THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED. /10

[dwg71]

The day 3 point is 120 miles further west. Day 5 is 180 miles further west. That's a pretty big shift.[/quote]

I'm not sure how you get that looking at this animated loop of the cone evolution:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml[/quote]

3 day:

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.0N 75.5W


vs

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.3N 77.5W...INLAND



5 day:

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W...INLAND

vs

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.5N 78.0W[/quote]


What about the other two numbers. If you add additional north movement to a NW heading, you will increase the distance between the two points.

[Air Force Met]

I'm not sure how you get that looking at this animated loop of the cone evolution:

I just measured the amount of distance the western edge of the CONE traveled west from the first to the last advisory...and amazingly...it was also 177 nm.

[Stormcenter]

And it begins. All you have to do is mention "tropical and storm" in the same sentence and they jack the prices up.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080825/ap_ ... oil_prices

[Ivanhater]

I'm not sure how you get that looking at this animated loop of the cone evolution:

I just measured the amount of distance the western edge of the CONE traveled west from the first to the last advisory...and amazingly...it was also 177 nm.

Math tends not to lie

[KWT]

Well to be fair the ECM does end up developing this system, the GFDL/HWRF also develops this pretty strongly as well, the GFS doesn't do much but then again it had Bertha and Felix as open waves when they were majors, so you shouldn't really use that as a strength forecast.

AFM, yep its a pretty major shift by NHC standards anyway.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

How come it is forecasted to slow down in forward speed
in 3 days??? It moves much more slowly over Cuba. How come??
Less steering currents as trough moves out and ridge builds in?

[RL3AO]

Days 3-5 was sped up which is why the track change is so much in the long term.

[dwg71]

I'm not sure how you get that looking at this animated loop of the cone evolution:

I just measured the amount of distance the western edge of the CONE traveled west from the first to the last advisory...and amazingly...it was also 177 nm.

Even if the previous track was an exact extension of the prior, your path is NW, the cone will move west, but the forecast track did not move at all west. It was not a major shift in the path. Measure the distance from last point on 11AM forecast and go perpendicular to the 4PM forecast line and that number will not be 180, but closer to 50 by my estimation.

[gatorcane]

I'm not sure how you get that looking at this animated loop of the cone evolution:

I just measured the amount of distance the western edge of the CONE traveled west from the first to the last advisory...and amazingly...it was also 177 nm.

Thanks I do see it now

[Stormcenter]

Since the models don't seem to want to develop this, I guess it wouldn't be suprising it doesn't amount to much(strength wise)...

I think the last time the models refused to significantly develop a system was Chris (I think I have the right name). Many on this board jumped (like they always do ) on the major development bandwagon and refused to believe what the models were correct. Well we all know what happened to Chris.

[baygirl_1]

Here's what the Mobile NWS Office has to say about Gustav in the afternoon forecast discussion:

MEANWHILE...AN UNPLEASANTRY IS THE REALITY THAT WE ARE MOVING INTO
THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON. ATLANTIC BASIN ACTIVITY IS RAMPING UP
WITH NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV NOW ON THE MAPS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER (21Z) TAKES GUSTAV NORTHWEST THROUGH HAITI TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THEN UP ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE BENDING BACK MORE TO
THE WEST AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA.
ALTHOUGH WE HAVEN`T GOT FAY OUT OF THE PICTURE YET...WILL HAVE TO BE
KEEPING A WATCH ON THIS ONE AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR GUSTAV TO
GET INTO THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED. /10

What fun! And the timeline for this being in the neighborhood up here looks to be the weekend, right??? Labor Day weekend, no less. And the first Auburn football game of the year. Looks like we may have to do storm preps before heading upstate for the game.

[funster]

Since the models don't seem to want to develop this, I guess it wouldn't be suprising it doesn't amount to much(strength wise)...

I think the last time the models refused to significantly develop a system was Chris (I think I have the right name). Many on this board jumped (like they always do ) on the major development bandwagon and refused to believe what the models were correct. Well we all know what happened to Chris.

Yes, Chris was a secret nudist and couldn't keep his clothes on.

[ColdFusion]

Since the models don't seem to want to develop this...

They don't?

[jlauderdal]

Days 3-5 was sped up which is why the track change is so much in the long term.

i put my 3d glasses on to look at that and magically it made one track right to miami,

[Wx_Warrior]

Just way too early to start pinpointing where Gustavo Mendoza will end up on the Gulf Coast. Opinions change on here like underwear.

[srainhoutx]

Snipet from LCH this afternoon...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
245 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008



CONDITIONS BEYOND LABOR DAY WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON THE MOVEMENT
OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WHERE EARLY INDICATIONS FROM
HPC, THE EUROPEAN MODEL, AND THE OFFTIME GFS HAVE THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF. ALL INTERESTS AROUND THE GULF
WILL NEED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST DEVELOPMENT ON GUSTAV OUT
OF THE HURRICANE CENTER THIS WEEKEND. MUCH DEPENDS ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHICH WOULD NOT RULE OUT OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SHADED TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE TNITE DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEYOND THIS WEEKEND.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLCH

[AL Chili Pepper]

I'm not sure how you get that looking at this animated loop of the cone evolution:

I just measured the amount of distance the western edge of the CONE traveled west from the first to the last advisory...and amazingly...it was also 177 nm.

Math tends not to lie

Oh, I don't know. Mine said 175.

[Air Force Met]

What about the other two numbers. If you add additional north movement to a NW heading, you will increase the distance between the two points.

Remember you aren't dealing with 60 NM per degree at that latitude...more like 57 NM.