ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Well whatever comes first the vis or recon!

Looks like the NHC are back to expecting this to become a hurricane before landfall again.

THIS TYPE OF DUAL JET PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...AND HANNA COULD EASILY BE A
HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL

[Scorpion]

I'm thinking the models are definitely seeing something with Hanna. They have made her a very large and intense hurricane for quite some time now. The only question is where she makes landfall.

[jlauderdal]

Well whatever comes first the vis or recon!

Looks like the NHC are back to expecting this to become a hurricane before landfall again.

THIS TYPE OF DUAL JET PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...AND HANNA COULD EASILY BE A
HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL

visible will come first, i called for a 50-75 mile track shift west yesterday before the 5 pm but nhc just wont see it my way, what is wrong with those people, ..they talk west and all that but they just wont do it

[cpdaman]

RECON will give us the true intensity.

considering turks and caicos has been at 993-995 mb for several hours i would say this is about 990 mb. who knows wether shear pours over this again and flattens convection out by the time recon gets there......time will tell

[cpdaman]

I'm thinking the models are definitely seeing something with Hanna. They have made her a very large and intense hurricane for quite some time now. The only question is where she makes landfall.

to me this has SC-NC written all over it, but still watching fl

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

That center point would make a lot of sense given the shear that is still on Hanna streaming from powerful Gustav.

[cpdaman]

That center point would make a lot of sense given the shear that is still on Hanna streaming from powerful Gustav.

it would based on IR 2 loop ....http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html

but it wouldn't ..........the center point would be over 100 miles north of providencialas in the turks and caicos where a pressure of 994 mb is being recorded (see link )

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MD0758

[KWT]

cpdaman, yep thats indeed pretty low, central pressure surely is around 990mbs, though its hard to tell how tight the LLC actually is. Its certainly possible the LLC is further south then that who knows?

[cpdaman]

also looks like a nice channel of shear is about ready to move directly overhead our ball of convection in the next hour or two............who will win the battle..........................

gustav's shear vs. hanna's convection

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... e&itype=ir

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

23.4/72.6 is my center...

Once Gustav weakens, I expect then the shear it is causing for this to also weaken.

[Nimbus]

Seems to be overcoming the shear a little sooner than forecast.

A more vertical system might respond to the upper air flow more if the tops don't just get sheared off again. I'm not ready to jump on a Deep BAM track but we are talking about a complex track where small initial differences in the models can make a big difference north or south days out.

This morning it appears at least the question about Hanna surviving the shear is being answered.

[KBBOCA]

I don't have too much to add about Hanna, except I'm watching it closely. It certainly looks much more impressive than it did.

Mostly I just wanted to note how great it is to have S. Stewart back at NHC writing discussions. I learn so much from his write ups! This last discussion (5 a.m.) was just full of really helpful explanation and detail.

[cpdaman]

let us hope that the shear stays elevated even when gustav weakens and moves more NW, otherwise hanna is screaming hurricane right now, but the shear is probably keeping her as a strong tropical storm

[KWT]

I agree Matt once Gustav moves inland then the system will weaken and its outflow will start to become a lesser issue for Hanna though it will take some time for it to totally ease off and the shear shoud remain pretty strong still for the next 24-36hrs before easing down IMO.

[caneman]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

Model runs. Any shift West of 50-100 miles and florida will get a landfall followed by Carolinas

[tgenius]

something about that sharp turn NW seems a lil iffy (though I'd be very happy if so!)

[KWT]

Well the models are in decent agreement that the turn happens its just a case of when does it actually occur?

The thing to note this will probably only get 24-36hrs of very good conditions, should be enough for a solid cat-1 however if the models are predicitng the outflow pattern well for Hanna. Indeed could see some decent strengthening by the time this reaches the gulf stream if it doesn't get too close to or inland by 72-96hrs time.

[caneman]

hard to tell just yet but looking at the this shot on NRL it sure seems to have sunk South. Stacy at NHC mentioned this possibility. Take a look for yourself. If so, it is even better roganized than we or NHC are giving it credit for and shows that UKMET may be right early on.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

BTW-Click on the Sat. Shot and it will really expand the size of the image.