TC Bertha

[x-y-no]

someone else watch the loop is that a bit of an eye feature trying to form .. i ruled out the obvious thing .. like maybe it was just temporary. but since it is still present and it coincides with last microwave images the center is quite visible..

or im going loopy

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

i swear it is.. i have been looking at the tropic for 15 years..

I think that's an illusion as the sun angle gets low, not a real eye feature.

[Normandy]

That is not an eye feature...the low level center is a WSW of that feature you are observing. Look at the low level cloud movements to the west and west-southwest of Bertha

[mvtrucking]

Does anyone know what the shear forecast is for the next day or so for that area(Bertha's path) of the Atlantic? Thanks in advance.

[RL3AO]

Thats 18.5N. Seems too far north.

[KWT]

It does look interesting esp the way the northern convection bends around that spot, but equally it may just be a shadow. If thats the eye then this system is way north of where it has been estimated, closer to 18.5!
Looking at the loop it seems likely its a shadow but we need to see more images!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think it is probably an illusion. That "eye feature" just seems way too far north to be the actual center of Bertha.

[Aric Dunn]

someone else watch the loop is that a bit of an eye feature trying to form .. i ruled out the obvious thing .. like maybe it was just temporary. but since it is still present and it coincides with last microwave images the center is quite visible..

or im going loopy

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

i swear it is.. i have been looking at the tropic for 15 years..

It looks too far north for me though. I think its just a shadow for right now, but if it persists or develops ill bite.

right i agree .. on that.. but the loop is many hours and it does not go away...

[RL3AO]

Does anyone know what the shear forecast is for the next day or so for that area(Bertha's path) of the Atlantic? Thanks in advance.

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KTS)        8    10     9     7     8    14    14    23    15    20    12     4     8
SHEAR DIR        203   204   238   263   261   259   268   264   257   254   309     6    95

[Aric Dunn]

It does look interesting esp the way the northern convection bends around that spot, but equally it may just be a shadow. If thats the eye then this system is way north of where it has been estimated, closer to 18.5!
Looking at the loop it seems likely its a shadow but we need to see more images!

i agree on the to far north part .. but bertha is still fairly week and the center can reform..

my argument is the band wraping around ..

[Aric Dunn]

im right...!!!!!!!

[HURAKAN]

We desperately need a hurricane hunter!

[Aric Dunn]

it reformed..

[RL3AO]

Maybe that is an eye. Latest microwave.

[JonathanBelles]

AL, 02, 2008070618, , BEST, 0, 178N, 462W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 30, 0, 75, 1012, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERTHA, D,

I dont know if this was posted or not.

['CaneFreak]

60 knots at 5pm anyone?

[KWT]

Hmmm thats very interesting Aric there is a warm spot with deep convection around it!
Also further north then NHC estimated, so we certainly have a WNW track right now. If thats an eye then this system is likely closer to 55kts and probably tapping into the deeper currents which suggests a WNNW/NW track.

[cheezyWXguy]

It does look interesting esp the way the northern convection bends around that spot, but equally it may just be a shadow. If thats the eye then this system is way north of where it has been estimated, closer to 18.5!
Looking at the loop it seems likely its a shadow but we need to see more images!

i agree on the to far north part .. but bertha is still fairly week and the center can reform..

my argument is the band wraping around ..

I see that and it has been bothering me all day. I have absolutely no idea if its a primitive eye feature, but it looks like that is what its becoming...If it is, I dont believe its the start of the WNW motion, as that would be far too pronounced for this early. I believe it was either a large wobble or the beginnings of a center reformation.

[Normandy]

Might be my eyes but that microwave image still doesn't correlate to that feature you are seeing. Does prove the center is a bit farther north.

[MiamiensisWx]

We desperately need a hurricane hunter!

"Gotta have more recon, baby!"

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the center may have re-formed or wobbed to the north, but the storm motion still appears to generally be toward the west. I do not think this is the beginning of a WNW or NW turn.