ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[KWT]

jlauderdal, that explains the Accuweather track!

As others have said the idea the models don't develop this is a fallacy, the ECM takes its time, the CMC develops it, the GFDl does, the HWRF does, the UKMO hammers it into Hispaniola so no surprise it doesn't do anything either.

[hiflyer]

Gonna get interesting....

first off thanks to whoever posted this link for sat pix
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/
Been on the site regularly but never for sat...great updates and frequency.

So no good recon until after midnight, sun is going down, and the G4 does not sample upper air until tomorrow afternoon....going to be a lot of speculation and thoughts...fun!

meanwhile the hurricane hunters are out on US1 with their boot drive to collect coins for JetA...just kidding...come on up to KMIA or KFLL...the majors are getting it for 4 on wholesale buys....Southwest for 3 cuz they hedged..grin.

[dwg71]

Math tends not to lie [/quote]

Oh, I don't know. Mine said 175. [/quote]

Again, on a NW path, with each extension you will get further west. Does not mean a major shift in path. The path only shifted 50 miles east, by my estimation.

[Blown Away]

What does Accuweather see that brings Gustav into the FL Peninsula.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... stormNum=6

[Stormcenter]

Just way too early to start pinpointing where Gustavo Mendoza will end up on the Gulf Coast. Opinions change on here like underwear.

That's assuming he makes into the GOM and you know what happens
when you assume anything?

[ConvergenceZone]

Since the models don't seem to want to develop this...

They don't?

My bad, I meant to say ALL the models...I did leave out the word "all" by mistake...I do know there are a couple that actually do develop it...

[SouthFLTropics]

I think something that everyone needs to remember as always is that the models can, will, and do change as time moves forward. As usual this is a fluid situation that needs to be closely monitored by all. I DON'T BELIEVE at this time that this will make it past Cuba and Hispanola and into the Bahama's. I base this merely on the flow that is evident on water vapor imagery. I believe Gustav will turn North at some point when he is either South of or on top of Cuba. The $1,000,000 question is where? At this point in time though I feel confident that someone in the CONUS is going to have an unwelcome visitor for the Labor Day Weekend Bar B Que.

SFT

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[dwg71]

What about the other two numbers. If you add additional north movement to a NW heading, you will increase the distance between the two points.

Remember you aren't dealing with 60 NM per degree at that latitude...more like 57 NM.

Even so, if the track was due north any movement of the cone west would show a west movement. But, on a NW track, even if you dont change a thing, with each extension of you will move the cone move west.

[deltadog03]

What about the other two numbers. If you add additional north movement to a NW heading, you will increase the distance between the two points.

Remember you aren't dealing with 60 NM per degree at that latitude...more like 57 NM.

Even so, if the track was due north any movement of the cone west would show a west movement. But, on a NW track, even if you dont change a thing, with each extension of you will move the cone move west.

OMG!! are you serious dude....IT got moved west some...Come on!

[crazycajuncane]

Just got back from New Orleans and the weather wasn't too bad. Looks like Fay didn't quite make the impacts beside a little wind and pesky rain.

Now Gustav! Another storm to keep the on!

[dwg71]

^not by 180 miles, it was a slight movement west, about 50miles.

[Air Force Met]

Math tends not to lie

Oh, I don't know. Mine said 175. [/quote]

Again, on a NW path, with each extension you will get further west. Does not mean a major shift in path. The path only shifted 50 miles east, by my estimation.[/quote]

Not sure what you are getting at. Since the day 5 points were issued only hours apart...its a big shift left. The 2AM Sat point is 115 nm west. Given the NHC propensity for SMALL jumps...115nm west for the same VT is a big jump in one advisory.

[Pearl River]

From LIX:

.LONG TERM...

BY 00Z WED...THE WEAK FRONT FINALLY SLIDES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA WHERE IT APPEARS TO WASH OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES. OUR REGION SHOULD RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER WITH
CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS. OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WILL LIKELY BE A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED
WITH "GUSTAV" WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

[deltadog03]

^not by 180 miles, it was a slight movement west, about 50miles.

What is the big deal...It moved WEST....Do you blame them??? The models are LEFT of them even more....What is your point to trying to challenge AFM...

[ROCK]

Dwg71 thanks for two pages of arguing with METS over how this is not a major track shift west by the NHC.....


somethings never change......

[RL3AO]

^not by 180 miles, it was a slight movement west, about 50miles.

What is the big deal...It moved WEST....Do you blame them??? The models are LEFT of them even more....What is your point to trying to challenge AFM...

dwg, days 4 and 5 shifted west. Actually its more that they sped up days 4 and 5.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

From LIX:

.LONG TERM...

BY 00Z WED...THE WEAK FRONT FINALLY SLIDES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA WHERE IT APPEARS TO WASH OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES. OUR REGION SHOULD RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER WITH
CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS. OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WILL LIKELY BE A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED
WITH "GUSTAV" WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

A Cold front in 5 days means the possibility of the storm being pulled northwards or northeastwards
once in the gulf.

[bayoubebe]

Where will Gustav be by Labor Day Weekend ? We have to make a decision about the Beach(Gulf Shores), and soon, concerning this weekend. Will Gust. be close enough to the Gulf coast to ruin holiday plans?

edit: just saw the 3 posts ahead of mine, I was typing while they were being posted.

[jlauderdal]

jlauderdal, that explains the Accuweather track!

As others have said the idea the models don't develop this is a fallacy, the ECM takes its time, the CMC develops it, the GFDl does, the HWRF does, the UKMO hammers it into Hispaniola so no surprise it doesn't do anything either.

accuwx is smart, they go out a week in time with that monster cone and they can always say they were right. as far as this double vision track thing we have going and forked forecasts i am getting a nasty hurricane hangover...my 50 gallons of gas for the generator from fay that went unused goes another storm unused, i hope gas goes to five bucks a gallon, i paid 3.87 so that would be 56.50 profit or savings if you want to look at it that way

[Air Force Met]

^not by 180 miles, it was a slight movement west, about 50miles.

Wrong. The VT of day 5...which is 2 AM Sat...on the first advisory...compared to that of advisory #2's 2AM position (from HURREVAC)..is 115nm. That's not 50 miles. The 180 nm comes in from the fact it is actually MOVING at day 5 on this advisory (5.5 kts)...as opposed to crawling (2.75) on the previous. That's the big shift west....and so the 12 hours diff makes the 180nm. That's a big shift west because of track and foreward motion at the end of the period.