ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[caneman]

06Z UKIE still showing it moving WSW thru 48 hours. We shall see.

[tgenius]

06Z UKIE still showing it moving WSW thru 48 hours. We shall see.

Got a link to 06Z UKMET?

[caneman]

oops sorry

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

[tgenius]

Wow..hanna is huge! she looks bigger than Gustav in that shot!

[captain east]

Is Gustav feeding Hanna?

[cpdaman]

Is Gustav feeding Hanna?

yup feeding her some shear....her circulation is huge and is only partically covered with deep convection on south and east sides.

she could be a monster IMO

[caneman]

First visible. Sorry don't know how to post picture. Will someone do please.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[HURAKAN]

Center appears to be under the convection but we need more visible images.

[caneman]

Hurakan,

I would agree. Looking at Sat. presentation. Stacy Stewart also mentioned in his discussion that it could be tucked up under the convection. If so, we could be looking at close to Hurricane strength right now.

[Lowpressure]

This may be a bit stronger than we all think. I am very impressed at how well she has fought shear. She might be a nasty storm once shear relaxes. When is recon in her?

[cycloneye]

This may be a bit stronger than we all think. I am very impressed at how well she has fought shear. She might be a nasty storm once shear relaxes. When is recon in her?

A. 01/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0208A HANNA
C. 01/1300Z
D. 23.70N 71.6W
E. 01/1500Z TO 01/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Plane departs at 9:00 AM EDT.

[captain east]

This may be a bit stronger than we all think. I am very impressed at how well she has fought shear. She might be a nasty storm once shear relaxes. When is recon in her?

Could you imagine if there was no shear....

[KWT]

Yep center looks like its under the NW side of the convection, and that case suggests this is probably upto 55kts now, recon may well find a pretty impressive TS and once Gustav is overland and starts to weaken shear should slowly start to decrease.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

Now I know I'm full of it, but lets just say that small warm spot is a eye. It almost looks like a storm in the caribbean in 2005 around 11pm est, just before the eye started coming out. Of course I'm not serious, and see that the LLC is elongated northwest to southeast, but the convection on IR kind of gives the look to it.

[tgenius]

I think with these slight west shifts (and I suspect subsequent runs will shift slightly) that Dade County will be issued Tropical Storm Watches sometime Tues/Wed.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Lowpressure]

I would say very strong TS or even minimal cane. At risk of getting drilled, in this formulative stage, it does have some annular qualities currently. Appearance wise anyway.

[captain east]

I think with these slight west shifts (and I suspect subsequent runs will shift slightly) that Dade County will be issued Tropical Storm Watches sometime Tues/Wed.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think so too, maybe even hurricane watches if it continues looking better..

[KWT]

Got to admit Matt this storm has some very expolsive convection which is no doubt helping to really strengthen this system, now the LLC is under the convection I suspect we will be seeing some pretty deent strengthening now.

[Lowpressure]

This may be a bit stronger than we all think. I am very impressed at how well she has fought shear. She might be a nasty storm once shear relaxes. When is recon in her?

A. 01/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0208A HANNA
C. 01/1300Z
D. 23.70N 71.6W
E. 01/1500Z TO 01/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Plane departs at 9:00 AM EDT.

Thanks for the info.