TC Bertha

[KWT]

The center hasn't reformed, its been far too well established to reform I think given its been going for the last 5-7 days or so, it may well have wobbled to the WNW or it may be tapping into the deeper steering currents that takes this at a higher angle to the WNW.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I believe it briefly moved WNW, and it's currently moving just north of due west per visibles.

...and I do believe that is a formative eye feature.

[Blown Away]

I still see the LLC near 17.5N/47W moving West, that must be some kind eddy up there around 18.5, IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

i would say its a reform .. since if you look at the loop its still heading west..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[cheezyWXguy]

The center hasn't reformed, its been far too well established to reform I think given its been going for the last 5-7 days or so, it may well have wobbled to the WNW or it may be tapping into the deeper steering currents that takes this at a higher angle to the WNW.

I dont really, think so, because looking at the vis loop, it now appears to be moving toward the west.

[KWT]

To be honest that does look like a eye, its too well wrapped not to be a formative eye IMO.

The other option we haven't mentioned is that the LLC may have been that far north the whole time and was just estimated wrongly?

[Swimdude]

We desperately need a hurricane hunter!

"Gotta have more recon, baby!"

Yeah this definitely reminded me of "More cowbell!"

Anyway. I've been watching (amused) the discussion of whether this was an eye feature or not... Which I'm about 98% sure it is. Probably some relief for the Carolinas to see the eye reform to the North.

[HURAKAN]

New convection developing.

[Aric Dunn]

although this was from earlier the center is clearly at 17.4 to 17.5 . so a from 280 stand point a center fix from 17.4 to 17.8 is not likely in 6 hours.


original
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... W.63pc.jpg

im adding the new image with the old image

[brunota2003]

We desperately need a hurricane hunter!

"Gotta have more recon, baby!"

Yeah this definitely reminded me of "More cowbell!"

Anyway. I've been watching (amused) the discussion of whether this was an eye feature or not... Which I'm about 98% sure it is. Probably some relief for the Carolinas to see the eye reform to the North.

If it is still heading west, not really.

[RL3AO]

To be honest that does look like a eye, its too well wrapped not to be a formative eye IMO.

The other option we haven't mentioned is that the LLC may have been that far north the whole time and was just estimated wrongly?

I think the center might have relocated north. I still think the system has a whole is moving about 280.

['CaneFreak]

ok...major disagreement in here...here is what is going on...the deepest convection has been to the North of the system all along. Correct? WELL, low level centers tend to jump under the deepest thunderstorms because afterall they WANT ENERGY TO SURVIVE...llcs die when they lose convection to duck inot...that is what happened in this case...also the shear has been out of the south and southwest..so a center relocation downwind of the shear would also make sense...and again the plot thickens...

[cycloneye]

To be honest that does look like a eye, its too well wrapped not to be a formative eye IMO.

The other option we haven't mentioned is that the LLC may have been that far north the whole time and was just estimated wrongly?

I think the center might have relocated north. I still think the system has a whole is moving about 280.

I agree with the relocation thing.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I believe it briefly moved WNW, and it's currently moving just north of due west per visibles.

...and I do believe that is a formative eye feature.

I believe the bolded portion is likely correct in regards to the LLC controversy. This is based on my personal observations of the lower levels on visible data.

[KWT]

Whatever happened the center is further north then was progged by the NHC and most others though I do remember wxman57 mentioning it being a little further north then even the NHC position.
Hopefully that eye sticks and is real as it will make tracking this system far easier!

[wxman57]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/02L.BERTHA/amsub/89/2degreeticks/full/Latest.html

17.8 probably is too far north. This is the AMSUB pass from 6 hours ago. Center was closer to 17N. If the center is at 17.8... this has started a turn to the WNW already

I don't know, Derek. On this 1915Z image I just snapped, do you see anything to indicate a center south of 18N? I can't find any low cloud features to support anything south of 18N.

[cheezyWXguy]

although this was from earlier the center is clearly at 17.4 to 17.5 . so a from 280 stand point a center fix from 17.4 to 17.8 is not likely in 6 hours.


original
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... W.63pc.jpg

im adding the new image with the old image

Notice in the old microwave, that there is a tiny hole in the greens around 18.5N, while in the new one, there appears to be dark blue spot just below the convection at around 17.5N...if im correct, this is a center relocation

[Aric Dunn]

here is the new image .... with the center fix from the previous image circled in black..

i change my assement and agree with miami... it was probably a wabble...
either way it is clearly now heading west ...

[Thunder44]

Might be my eyes but that microwave image still doesn't correlate to that feature you are seeing. Does prove the center is a bit farther north.

That's because the microwave image was actually taken at 16:20 UTC. It's more than 2 hours older than current visible imagery.

[KWT]

The only thing that makes me doubt the reolocation is why now because its been estabnlished for a long time and has been under worse shear then this and yet no relocated. Oh well it doesn't matter the track still looks 280-285 and that does look like an eye.

Still I agree I'd put center at 18.2 right now.