ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Oh, Hanna. What are you doing!!!!

[storms in NC]

Hanna is looking better this morning. I still think she will be a large storm in size. last night on the news they said she would only be a TS at land fall. They might be right but given her size I don't think so. Today you will see her grow even more. I hav't looked to how thinks look as to where I think she will go. willl let you all know when I get some caffeen in me.

[KWT]

Wow Hurakan its pulling a bit of a surprise now, the convection is looking really aamzing, even if the LLC is still somewhat on the NW side. Recon is going to be so very interesting to observe IF it can hold this look for another 4-6hrs or so

[Lowpressure]

Wow Hurakan its pulling a bit of a surprise now, the convection is looking really aamzing, even if the LLC is still somewhat on the NW side. Recon is going to be so very interesting to observe IF it can hold this look for another 4-6hrs or so

I agree totally. Recon will be very interesting and perhaps surprised.

[Sanibel]

Right on cue when Gus gets weaker Hanna gets stronger.

Geesh! Look at that burst!

[Emmett_Brown]

As far as track, today is a big day. This is the day many models had predicted a SW motion, W motion, Loop or stall. Starting in 48 hours, the globals are in good agreement and project a steady NW motion for a while, so in my opinion, the more W it goes today, the futher S it will strike the EC.

[KWT]

Indeed Emmett what Hanna does today is key, I wonder whether it is starting the SW motion and this has allowed the system to get tucked up in the convection as the convection catches up from the west?

It looks around 55-60kts right now...

[Blown Away]

Center appears to be under the convection but we need more visible images.

You think the LLC is SE from the NHC tropical points under the deep convection?

[jlauderdal]

Indeed Emmett what Hanna does today is key, I wonder whether it is starting the SW motion and this has allowed the system to get tucked up in the convection as the convection catches up from the west?

It looks around 55-60kts right now...

hey mate, you are in the wrong part of the world for hurricane tracking, for the amount of posting you do you need to be in the tropics..

[KWT]

jlauderdal, sort of but think where a good chunk of these systems, esp the recuvers end up heading...
That plus I do just enjoy tracking these beasts.

Blown_away, I think the circulation is on the NW side of the deep convection but its got to be stronger then 45kts now I'm sure.

[gatorcane]

It's prudent not to concentrate on the line. It wouldn't take a left shift or a series of small left shifts here

NHC discussion snippet:

ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR
HANNA SINCE ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF HANNA MUCH CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0848.shtml

[sfwx]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
414 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND DANGEROUS SURF TODAY...
...FORECAST OF HANNA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...



TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FRESH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH POPS A
LITTLE BELOW CLIMO WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR ON NORTHWEST FRINGE OF
HANNA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALL DEPENDS ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF HANNA. GFDL NOGAPS AND UKMET MOVE HANNA FURTHER WEST THAN 00 UTC
GFS BUT HWRF IS FURTHER OFFSHORE. MOST MODELS DEVELOP HANNA INTO AT
LEAST A MINIMAL HURRICANE WHILE IT PASSES EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALL
THINGS CONSIDERED THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE 00 UTC GFS
AND DAY 4-5 TPC FORECAST AND REFLECTS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ALONG THE COASTLINE. GFS REFLECTS INCREASING POPS EARLY
THURSDAY AS LIKELY RAINBANDS BEGIN AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS AND
COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER THAT THE FORECAST FOR HANNAH IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOSE BRUSH WITH A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A HURRICANE OR EVEN A LANDFALL ON THE
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME AS
THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE TRACK OF
HANNA IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
THURSDAY. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A SIGNIFICANT MARINE AND
COASTAL EVENT WITH ROUGH SURF... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH
EROSION. FUTURE FORECASTS COULD CHANGE CONSIDERABLY SO IT GOES
WITHOUT SAYING FOR ALL INTERESTS TO STAY TUNED TO LATEST FORECASTS
AND TPC ADVISORIES.

MOST MODELS MOVE HANNA OUT RAPIDLY ONCE IT TURNS NORTHWARD SO
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. A LITTLE MORE HEATING THAN
.


SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....HAGEMEYER

[storms in NC]

OT Every one is still on Gus. I have done both. I have WWL4 on so I can hear and watch what is going on. They got lucky. I am glad. They didn't need another Katrina.
He is now ashore some what.
Hanna is still sucking in bands from Gus. I think that is where alot her her energy is coming from.

[gatorcane]

well I wouldn't say sucking but wow Hanna has ramped up her convection in a hurry:

[HURAKAN]

SHIP S 1100 20.60 -73.20 185 194 230 28.9 - - - - - 29.59

[jlauderdal]

jlauderdal, sort of but think where a good chunk of these systems, esp the recuvers end up heading...
That plus I do just enjoy tracking these beasts.

Blown_away, I think the circulation is on the NW side of the deep convection but its got to be stronger then 45kts now I'm sure.

gale centers for you mate

[tgenius]

I posted in the models thread.. I think Hanna may pull a David in 1979 that went up the coast.

[Blown Away]

It's prudent not to concentrate on the line. It wouldn't take a left shift or a series of small left shifts here

NHC discussion snippet:

ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR
HANNA SINCE ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF HANNA MUCH CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0848.shtml

Especially since the models continue to shift S and most of the thinking is the ridge will be building W so there does not seem to be an escape for Hanna before hitting the CONUS at this point. Where have you been Gatorcane, I figured you would been all over this.

[skufful]

I posted in the models thread.. I think Hanna may pull a David in 1979 that went up the coast.

Wasn't too much of a storm, but no power for three weeks. Don't need that again.

[caneman]

It's prudent not to concentrate on the line. It wouldn't take a left shift or a series of small left shifts here

NHC discussion snippet:

ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR
HANNA SINCE ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF HANNA MUCH CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0848.shtml

Especially since the models continue to shift S and most of the thinking is the ridge will be building W so there does not seem to be an escape for Hanna before hitting the CONUS at this point. Where have you been Gatorcane, I figured you would been all over this.

Hannah is quickly taking center stage.