ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Stormcenter]

Latest radar motion shows the wnw track in progress per the last NHC advisory. The radar presentatation is look a little less ragged then earlier.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[jinftl]

As of last update, we are still dealing with a weak/moderate tropical storm...strengthening is possible and even likely before landfall..but strengthening now would not mean it has to become a hurricane...it would become a stronger tropical storm.

It isn't on the verge of becoming a hurricane at this moment....we aren't awaiting recon confirmation that we have a hurricane now or anything like that...and with no hurricane warnings posted less than 24 hours before landfall, the NHC currently doesn't expect that either.

[Derek Ortt]

I have seen nothing so far to suggest winds above 35KT

[RL3AO]

I have seen nothing so far to suggest winds above 35KT

Would 39 knots at 14 meters be about 35 at the surface?

[jabman98]

Bull I live in port neches and it wasn't all Louisiana! WE had the eye pass over us. The reason i am watching this one so close is because of what Humberto did I don't put anything pass mother nature in general lol she is a women and we all r unpredictable!

Sorry, I should have been more specific. From the perspective of our local media and the average person on the ground, I think Humberto was "a Louisiana storm". That's what I meant by "it was all Louisiana".

Edouard is really a tricky forecasting situation because a slight jog in one direction or the other will put a whole new set of people in a more dangerous spot. Fortunately Edouard isn't going to be a major storm, but it's impossible to discount intensification completely.

[dwg71]

I have seen nothing so far to suggest winds above 35KT

go ahead - bash him like you did me

just kidding...

I just dont see anything that would show a hurricane will be making landfall in less than 24 hours.

[Tireman4]

some advice to everyone,

when people are asking for advice about what to do with the storm, if you are not a meteorologist, please direct them to local emergency management officials.. I don't want to degrade anyone, but those without the proper training are less likely to provide the appropriate information.

Preach Brother Derek...LOL Amen. I agree.

[TTheriot1975]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

[Wx_Warrior]

Same here...I'll take crow with a baked potato if I have to. Looks like it could be a dry storm as well.

[Stormcenter]

I have seen nothing so far to suggest winds above 35KT

go ahead - bash him like you did me

just kidding...

I just dont see anything that would show a hurricane will be making landfall in less than 24 hours.

When a tropical storm is still almost a day (unless it moves NW unexpectly)from landfall I say anything is possible. IMO

[oyster_reef]

If this thing were in the middle of the gulf with 2-3 days before landfall we would have a disaster on our hands... looks like it's just not going to have enough time and environment to develop much... I hope.

[Sanibel]

A new hurricane hunter plane entered the storm at about 2pm EDT, and so far has measured top winds of 50 knots (57 mph) at the surface with its SFMR instrument.

See TTheriot1975 post for link

[kurtpage]

A new hurricane hunter plane entered the storm at about 2pm EDT, and so far has measured top winds of 50 knots (57 mph) at the surface with its SFMR instrument.

Link?

[HouTXmetro]

A new hurricane hunter plane entered the storm at about 2pm EDT, and so far has measured top winds of 50 knots (57 mph) at the surface with its SFMR instrument.

Link?

Jeff Masters update

[deltadog03]

Looks like shear has really leasend....To me, it appears to me that he is getting much more organized... Fighting and pushing out that dry air...

[kurtpage]

A new hurricane hunter plane entered the storm at about 2pm EDT, and so far has measured top winds of 50 knots (57 mph) at the surface with its SFMR instrument.

eff Masters update

Thanks! I thought I saw the same thing...but D Ortt said that they were bogus because of Rain Contamination....

[Evil Jeremy]

My unofficial 2 cents:


At this point, landfall can be expected in about 18-24 hours. While the storm is organizing, it is still weak, perhaps weaker than this morning. With dry air above the storm, and some shear over it right now, I think we will only be putting up with a 55-65 MPH storm come morning. I would not be surprised to see the Hurricane Watch taken down at 4 PM CDT, although it probably wont be taken down to be on the safe side. I don't see a Hurricane warning coming at all though.

[LaBreeze]

I'm sitting here looking at a very dark sky approaching from the east and southeast. Looks like we're going to have our first feeder band move in. It's windy and very humid Sky getting really dark.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm sitting here looking at a very dark sky approaching from the east and southeast. Looks like we're going to have our first feeder band move in. It's windy and very humid Sky getting really dark.

Have fun! Take some pictures if you can.

[jinftl]

If the hurricane watch is not upgraded to a warning at 5pm, i would say the chance of the storm coming ashore a hurricane is less than 10%.....but don't get me wrong...it is that 10% chance that is a gamble for sure.

I trust the NHC to act of the side of caution....they don't want to have to answer questions why they didn't upgrade to a warning if this thing really blows up unexpectedly. So if they don't upgrade to a warning, that really tells us where their thinking is.....a strong tropical storm at most.