ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[mutley]

Where will Gustav be by Labor Day Weekend ? We have to make a decision about the Beach(Gulf Shores), and soon, concerning this weekend. Will Gust. be close enough to the Gulf coast to ruin holiday plans?

edit: just saw the 3 posts ahead of mine, I was typing while they were being posted.

It is really annoying when some people only care about Gustav ruining there holiday weekend..I think we need to be worried about the possible destruction he may cause and trying to prevent loss of life!!!

How are posts to STK going to thwart possible destruction and loss of life?

[Weatherfreak000]

So currently GFS and GFDL are showing the highest probability a Central GOM main threat? That must be why the NHC track is showing the way it is...

Typically i'd refrain from commenting on the initial forecasts...gonna wait 24 hours on this thing before I start getting concerned.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Where will Gustav be by Labor Day Weekend ? We have to make a decision about the Beach(Gulf Shores), and soon, concerning this weekend. Will Gust. be close enough to the Gulf coast to ruin holiday plans?

edit: just saw the 3 posts ahead of mine, I was typing while they were being posted.

It is really annoying when some people only care about Gustav ruining there holiday weekend..I think we need to be worried about the possible destruction he may cause and trying to prevent loss of life!!!

No it is a valid concern. Planning for a holiday depends on the weather, just like people's
lives, they are both valid concerns.

Depending on the future track, labor day wknd along the gulf coast might have some problems.

The future track is uncertain, and wherever this goes
the Labor Day Weekend will be spoiled, and depending on strength/flooding
there may be loss of life.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Of course Haiti/Cuba/Jamacia are under the gun for violent rain
and wind in the next 48 hours!!!

After that, the north to northeast Gulf thanks to the weekend
cold front!!

An earlier discussion on page 90-92 I think stated a cold
front will DIG INTO THE GULF THIS WEEKEND- STEERING
GUSTAV NORTH and possibly NORTHEAST towards the gulf
coast, so the central Gulf to the Florida west Coast
is Under the Gun!!!!! It is a Mississippi Discussion
I think.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Of course Haiti/Cuba/Jamacia are under the gun for violent rain
and wind in the next 48 hours!!!

After that, the north to northeast Gulf thanks to the weekend
cold front!!

[Recurve]

If Gustav went right up the entire spine of Cuba per the 5PM track, isn't there a good chance that it would be completely disrupted? Cuba isn't exactly a small island; that's a lot of land, if a storm enters at that point and travels WNW, staying over land all the way. Why would it be such a given that there would be much of anything left by the time it hit the Gulf?

The highest mountains are along the southern foot of the island, otherwise it is relatively flat.

Not an expert, I can only say that some storms are disrupted almost completely, but others are not stripped down more than a cateogory, there may be many examples of relatively unscathed cores, but as you say, on that track it would be over land a long time.

But then there's Fay, not being scathed much by Florida. There's a lot of warm water around Cuba.

[Tireman4]

Of course Haiti/Cuba/Jamacia are under the gun for violent rain
and wind in the next 48 hours!!!

After that, the north to northeast Gulf thanks to the weekend
cold front!!

Well and correct me if I am wrong...the HGX Disco two days ago spoke of the front not materialising like they thought....


HOPES FOR A SIGNIFICANT END OF AUG FRONT
CONTINUE TO DIM WITH EACH NEW EXTENDED RANGE RUN AND SO SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=5&max=61

Now is this for the Houston-Galveston area, cannot speak for anyone else.

[KWT]

Well the track over Cuba probably will take something out of Gustav IF it does take the NHC track (though I think it goes further west then the NHC...but thats not here or there lol!) but other then the eastern side of Cuba the rest of Cuba isn't really all that high, in fact some parts of it are pretty flat.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can someone tell me why the TX/LA border is safe from Gustav? These Mexican named storms have me a little gun-shy. Rita, Humberto, Eduoard and now Gustav. If they had named it Geoff or Grady, I don't think I'd be holding my breath right now.

So, all you weather gurus...why isn't the upper TX coast at risk?

This is a double post, and, as a proudly uneducated (well, I have a BS, but not in met) full fledged amateur, take with a grain of salt:

That GFS 500 mb looks similar to previous runs, with an alley for Gustav to start to recurve to the Northern or Eastern Gulf, with a protective ridge over Texas.


There is always the possibility the trough in the Westerlies doesn't fully recurve Gustav, Gustav meanders while the ridge builds in, and resumes a Western motion at a latitude more threatening to Texas, but that is awfully remote. Not impossible, but extremely unlikely.

More possible, now looking ahead 6 hours, is the ridge rebuilds and Gustav never does start to recurve, and heads generally West for a possible double landfall in Mexico.


But my unofficial gut, it is stronger than GFS shows, and far enough North to start recurving. I'd guess MSY to TPA, probably closer to the Western side of that, MOB, but I wouldn't bet money on that.

But final landfall is still a mystery.

Speculations are unofficial, I'm an amateur, haven't stayed in any hotels lately.

[bayoubebe]

Where will Gustav be by Labor Day Weekend ? We have to make a decision about the Beach(Gulf Shores), and soon, concerning this weekend. Will Gust. be close enough to the Gulf coast to ruin holiday plans?

edit: just saw the 3 posts ahead of mine, I was typing while they were being posted.

It is really annoying when some people only care about Gustav ruining there holiday weekend..I think we need to be worried about the possible destruction he may cause and trying to prevent loss of life!!!

No it is a valid concern. Planning for a holiday depends on the weather, just like people's
lives, they are both valid concerns.

Depending on the future track, labor day wknd along the gulf coast might have some problems.

The future track is uncertain, and wherever this goes
the Labor Day Weekend will be spoiled, and depending on strength/flooding
there may be loss of life.

Well put, thank you.

[CajunMama]

Enough of the speculation of the origin of Gustav's name. Let's just get back to Gustav the storm.

[LSU2001]

What do you think Mama,
I am not liking the connotations of the models at all. I am afraid that the weakness left behind by Fay could draw in anything in the mid-gulf region.
tim

[ConvergenceZone]

It won't be strengthening anytime soon, that's for sure...

[Raebie]

I can hardly wait to see how cheery everyone is at the end of the week. Something to look forward to!

[Scorpion]

It won't be strengthening anytime soon, that's for sure...

How will it not strengthen under minimal shear and very warm water?

[Just Joshing You]

Yea, lets stop speculating. It's obviously of french origin, anyways.

Does anyone know of a website that has the model runs on it for someone to view? I have to wait for the models to be pasted on the model thread. I want to be able to understand what you guys are talking about when you discuss the track.

[RL3AO]

[ConvergenceZone]

It won't be strengthening anytime soon, that's for sure...

How will it not strengthen under minimal shear and very warm water?

I'm just judging by appearance...It don't look well on satellite

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yea, lets stop speculating. It's obviously of french origin, anyways.

Does anyone know of a website that has the model runs on it for someone to view? I have to wait for the models to be pasted on the model thread. I want to be able to understand what you guys are talking about when you discuss the track.

spaghetti
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots.html

[Recurve]

Yea, lets stop speculating. It's obviously of french origin, anyways.

Does anyone know of a website that has the model runs on it for someone to view? I have to wait for the models to be pasted on the model thread. I want to be able to understand what you guys are talking about when you discuss the track.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

That site lets you run several models. Make sure you choose the right storm in the dropdown menu, then click the far right button to get the animation. Pay attention to the dates on the run images so you don't make a mistake on the time of the run and the forecast times.