ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[BigB0882]

It looks "right now" like a Central/SW LA. event but I'm very
sure it will change some.

Do you mean southeast? Maybe I'm not seeing all the models but I see a few with a central hit and then two outliers that don't even have a LA landfall but the rest are all SE LA landfalls.

[KWT]

Looks to me like the GFDL is doing a decent enough job right now, though the motion has to increase again from 295 upto around 310 for the GFDL to stay on the money.

[southerngale]

Ed, not everyone in Texas is "excited" about the possibility of it coming this direction. Many are simply concerned, or even worried. It gets rather annoying that if you show interest in what might occur where you live, for obvious reasons, that must mean you want it. It may in some cases (of people who apparently haven't been through one), but certainly not in all, or even most.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Lets roll..12Z

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Portastorm]

Ed, I understand your viewpoints and agree that all of us on the Gulf Coast face a difficult 7-10 day period. However, unless you know something I don't (and I am personally involved with the State of Texas EOC efforts with housing), please do not go spreading rumors that Houston will be or may be housing "hundreds of thousands" evacuees.

We are taking all precautions and actions to preserve the safety of our state's citizens. Should Gustav hit Louisiana, we do anticipate some evacuees but nothing on the level of what we saw with Katrina. Louisiana's governor and state and local government are all over this one as compared to Katrina.

[Stormcenter]

All of my fellow Texas people trying to get excited over this- probably not this one. We're still in the cone, so you can stay a little excited, but if this goes where most of the reliable guidance suggests, or perhaps even further East as it tracks more Northeast of the earlier forecast points as a trough digs all the way to the Yucatan, it'll still be a big event here. Houston will probably wind up housing tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, of storm evacuees.




Anyway, if Hanna actually gets all the way South to Cuba, the entire Gulf Coast will be doing this all over again next weekend.


This is potentially a very disruptive week to ten days coming up for everyone in the country, especially along the Gulf. And gasoline prices are almost certain to rise for everyone.

But the NoGaps and UK Met models have been lost since the beginning.

Stay tuned in case the completely unexpected happens, better safe than sorry, but this has all the makings of a SE LA to Fla. P'handle storm.


In my humble, amateur and unofficial opinion.

Gustav may have to deal with some serious shear.....hopefully.

[Stormcenter]

It looks "right now" like a Central/SW LA. event but I'm very
sure it will change some.

Do you mean southeast? Maybe I'm not seeing all the models but I see a few with a central hit and then two outliers that don't even have a LA landfall but the rest are all SE LA landfalls.

Don't worry it'll probably be weaker then anticipated even if it comes your way.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed, I understand your viewpoints and agree that all of us on the Gulf Coast face a difficult 7-10 day period. However, unless you know something I don't (and I am personally involved with the State of Texas EOC efforts with housing), please do not go spreading rumors that Houston will be or may be housing "hundreds of thousands" evacuees.

We are taking all precautions and actions to preserve the safety of our state's citizens. Should Gustav hit Louisiana, we do anticipate some evacuees but nothing on the level of what we saw with Katrina. Louisiana's governor and state and local government are all over this one as compared to Katrina.

I know nothing officially, just extrapolating what happened during Katrina. I assume a similar situation will occur. I don't know where the South Louisiana evacuees will go, but they have to go somewhere. And Gustav is less than 4 days from a possible Lousiana landfall, and New Orleans is in the 3 day uncertainty cone already.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed, not everyone in Texas is "excited" about the possibility of it coming this direction. Many are simply concerned, or even worried. It gets rather annoying that if you show interest in what might occur where you live, for obvious reasons, that must mean you want it. It may in some cases (of people who apparently haven't been through one), but certainly not in all, or even most.

I understand completely, but there has been a particular poster who every so often tosses out 'the models are going to shift West' and offers no support for that assertion.


I'm keeping an eye on TV and radio (no internet tomorrow through Sunday evening) in case the unexpected happens, because the unexpected can happen.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Gustav may have to deal with some serious shear.....hopefully.

Assuming Gustav moves faster than that trough, it should start to move into more unfavorable shear.


That does require an assumption, of course, and the 'always plan for one category higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale than what is forecast' as a safety factor is always a good idea.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS looking way west
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... est...humm

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS looking way west
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... est...humm

I hope not. I'd have to eat a whole flock of crows with my daring (if amateur and unofficial stands) of a Morgan City to Florida Big Bend landfall idea.

That is still East of Texas, but looks like TS conditions could get to Orange County on that path.


BTW, I think we'll be doing this all over again for Hanna, but I'm not even going to hazzard a guess this far out on that one.

[dwg71]

GFS looking way west
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... est...humm

It does not have a very deep system...

[BigB0882]

It looks "right now" like a Central/SW LA. event but I'm very
sure it will change some.

Do you mean southeast? Maybe I'm not seeing all the models but I see a few with a central hit and then two outliers that don't even have a LA landfall but the rest are all SE LA landfalls.

Don't worry it'll probably be weaker then anticipated even if it comes your way.

Sorry, must be some miscommunication. I was just pointing out that I didn't see a lot of SW LA landfalls from the models. Not sure where the intensity mention came from.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS looking way west
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... est...humm

It does not have a very deep system...

Deeper than most of the previous GFS runs.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Landfall Central LA

[jasons2k]

Ed, I understand your viewpoints and agree that all of us on the Gulf Coast face a difficult 7-10 day period. However, unless you know something I don't (and I am personally involved with the State of Texas EOC efforts with housing), please do not go spreading rumors that Houston will be or may be housing "hundreds of thousands" evacuees.

We are taking all precautions and actions to preserve the safety of our state's citizens. Should Gustav hit Louisiana, we do anticipate some evacuees but nothing on the level of what we saw with Katrina. Louisiana's governor and state and local government are all over this one as compared to Katrina.

I know nothing officially, just extrapolating what happened during Katrina. I assume a similar situation will occur. I don't know where the South Louisiana evacuees will go, but they have to go somewhere. And Gustav is less than 4 days from a possible Lousiana landfall, and New Orleans is in the 3 day uncertainty cone already.

two quick things:

1) Ed Emmett, Harris County Commish, has already publicy said we will not be taking evacuees this time as he stated "it makes no sense to take evacuees from one hurricane zone and put them in another" -- and
2) We have a preparation forum. Let's stick to the models here - thanks.

[Stormcenter]

Landfall Central LA

More like SW La.

[Agua]

Hard to eyeball it but GFS looks to bring it in around Marsh Island.

[Nimbus]

GFS track just brushes the tip of Cuba then brings it in west of NOLA this run. No sign of any late forecast turn toward Texas just a slightly further left initialization.