ATL: IKE Discussion

[MiamiensisWx]

I believe these runs are the latest dynamic guidance for 00Z:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif

The GFDL has a notorious poleward bias, though I definitely don't agree with the 12Z Euro's Gulf track.

[cpdaman]

back to deep convection wrapped around

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

don't mind it's on edge of screen sorry.

[rockyman]

the Euro's "1000 mile" shift occurred outside of 5 days...inside of 5 days, the shift has been much smaller...if these other models went out 10 days, it's very likely they'd shift wildly as well

[Sabanic]

[Trader Ron]

My money is on the HWRF and GFDL, but NOT 5 day's out.

[MiamiensisWx]

I believe these runs are the latest dynamic guidance for 00Z:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif

The GFDL has a notorious poleward bias, though I definitely don't agree with the 12Z Euro's Gulf track.

Bump

[wxman57]

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/IkeModels00ZSep5a.gif

How do you have access to the models before they are released, or are those the models from the previous run?

Gotta know whose palms to grease

They are released just after 00Z. We get them from an FTP server and I have a program to plot them. Of course, they SAY 00Z but obviously the AVN isn't the 00Z run. Some of the models have an "I" at the end indicating they're based on previous runs.

[cpdaman]

wxman what are you telling your people in s. fl

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if it misses Florida, it's going to more than likely still hit somewhere along the east coast as it turns northwest.......Perhaps a track similiar to Hanna......So perhaps good news for Florida but not for the Carolinas or points North of that.... I remember when Hanna's models had the models trending further east and looked like it would be a fish near the coast, and then the models once again shifted back westward.....

It's going to be dangerous for someone, just not sure who at this point....

[Bgator]

Ike def. looks like it has begun to turn west, and even a bit south of west at 265 maybe?

[MiamiensisWx]

Even if it misses Florida, it's going to more than likely still hit somewhere along the east coast as it turns northwest.......Perhaps a track similiar to Hanna......So perhaps good news for Florida but not for the Carolinas or points North of that.... I remember when Hanna's models had the models trending further east and looked like it would be a fish near the coast, and then the models once again shifted back westward.....

It's going to be dangerous for someone, just not sure who at this point....

Umm... why are you already assuming that the risk to Florida is decreasing?

I'm curious. I would be skeptical in regards to drastically "higher" or "lower" risks for a particular area based on one set of models.

Everyone in the Southeast, Bahamas, and TCI should monitor Ike.

[AtlanticWind]

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

I dont know how you could look at these model plots and even mention SoFla being in the clear?

[Storm Contractor]

Is there a reason that the models seem to shift east or west in the AM vs PM runs

[Bgator]

Can someone remind me when recon is supposed to be in Ike tomorrow?

[Sabanic]

This is more than enough evidence at this time to suggest FL is by no means in the clear. JMHO

[Raebie]

Where exactly did Wxman say that S. Florida was in the clear??

[Canelaw99]

Can someone remind me when recon is supposed to be in Ike tomorrow?

2pm, though NOAA research is supposed to be in earlier

[rockyman]

it's obvious to me that Wxman was being funny...not serious...when he said "by Monday night" (notice the "dash" before the word Monday)...this turn looks to come very late in the game and it's too early to know whether the turn will happen before the Florida coast.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if it misses Florida, it's going to more than likely still hit somewhere along the east coast as it turns northwest.......Perhaps a track similiar to Hanna......So perhaps good news for Florida but not for the Carolinas or points North of that.... I remember when Hanna's models had the models trending further east and looked like it would be a fish near the coast, and then the models once again shifted back westward.....

It's going to be dangerous for someone, just not sure who at this point....

Umm... why are you already assuming that the risk to Florida is decreasing?

I'm curious. I would be skeptical in regards to drastically "higher" or "lower" risks for a particular area based on one set of models.

Everyone in the Southeast, Bahamas, and TCI should monitor Ike.

I'm just following up to wxman57's post, and the last graphic of the models depicting a move east of Florida......I'm not saying that's going to happen, but it's very possible. It's just that some people seem to think that even if it misses Florida, that means the it will curve out to Sea, and nothing could be further from the truth, especially in the case of Ike.

[MiamiensisWx]

Honestly, I think wxman57's post was a friendly reminder for people I disagree with to stop -removed-... I believe some people on the KHOU forums have noted that Chris tends to harbor that unique sense of humor. Admittedly, it does add a touch of realism in the light of some posters' remarks. Everyone has their unique "methodologies" to express the uncertainties involved in meteorology. In addition, several of the 00Z models (including one of the consensus models) have not shifted away from south FL.