ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[kurtpage]

Storm EDOUARD1: Observed By Air Force #308
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 47KT (54.1mph 87.0km/h) In NW Quadrant At 19:08:30 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 42.3KT (48.7mph 78.3km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: Monday, August 04, 2008 1:56:00 PM (Mon, 4 Aug 2008 18:56:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 28° 16' N 091° 13' W (28.3°N 91.2°W) http://maps.google.com/maps?q=28.3,-91.2&t=h&hl=en&ie=UTF8&ll=28.3,-91.2&spn=8.72918,22.148437&om=1
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850mb: 1436m (Normal: 1457)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 35KT (40.25MPH 64.8km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 81nm (93.15miles) From Center At Bearing 131°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 43KT (49.45mph 79.6km/h) From 226°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 63nm (72.4 miles) From Center At Bearing 130°
Minimum pressure: 1001mb (29.56in)
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.05nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[Frank2]

deltadog03,

Per what you said, it's now partially over land, so, it'll receive at least a partial flow of hot, dry air from over the land areas...

We're fortunate that it's so close to land, as others have said...

P.S. Darn that goofy JB fella with his crazy predictions - he needs a duct tape mustache...

LOL

[dwg71]

1001 with 40Kts will likely be the call at 4PM EST.

[KWT]

Yep that sounds fair enough dwg71, pressure has dropped a touch but really its holding steady right now from the looks of things.

[dwg71]

recon shows due west between vortex messages.

[Sanibel]

That pseudo eye is a dry slot taken in from the west. Tops are still warm and the storm is a little dry with dry air over Texas to the west that is usually a storm damper. On the other hand that cornucopia shape and compact nautilus shape are similar to compact intensifying storms. Hard to say.

[Steve]

Tropical Storm Edouard special buoy report:


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at5

[HURAKAN]

DUE WEST.

[southerngale]

Bull I live in port neches and it wasn't all Louisiana! WE had the eye pass over us. The reason i am watching this one so close is because of what Humberto did I don't put anything pass mother nature in general lol she is a women and we all r unpredictable!

Sorry, I should have been more specific. From the perspective of our local media and the average person on the ground, I think Humberto was "a Louisiana storm". That's what I meant by "it was all Louisiana".

Edouard is really a tricky forecasting situation because a slight jog in one direction or the other will put a whole new set of people in a more dangerous spot. Fortunately Edouard isn't going to be a major storm, but it's impossible to discount intensification completely.

Wow, I had no idea your local media falsely reported it was mostly "a Louisiana storm." It made landfall in Southeast Texas and caused most of its damage here, from what I understand. It's always comical how Texas ends in the Houston area, then Louisiana begins.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Becoming more symmetrical in the last half hour.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

But convection seems to be diminishing near the center (and all around the storm for that matter). I would not be surprised if they lower it to 35kts at 5PM CST.

May look better on satellite imagery somewhat, but recon suggests dwg71 isn't all that far off. If things don't pick up, 40 or 45 knots, and maybe one more millibar, down to maybe 999 at advisory time.


In my unofficial opinion.

[KWT]

Yep due west pretty much rules out the idea that this is heading WNW earlier on. Landfall from the NHC looks pretty close to what should occur.

Its got a good shape right now, I think if there wasn't so much mid level dry air surging into the circulation on the western side then this would become a decent system FWIW, its got the shape just not the convective strength.

[HouTXmetro]

Becoming more symmetrical in the last half hour.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

But convection seems to be diminishing near the center (and all around the storm for that matter). I would not be surprised if they lower it to 35kts at 5PM CST.

May look better on satellite imagery somewhat, but recon suggests dwg71 isn't all that far off. If things don't pick up, 40 or 45 knots, and maybe one more millibar, down to maybe 999 at advisory time.


In my unofficial opinion.

Right, seriously lacking in Deep convection

[Innotech]

its starting to get really windy and dark over here in Lafayette. On radar I can see a definite feeder band passing over.

[Sanibel]

You could make out the surface spiral heading west under the openings in the dry slot. It suggests maybe south of Houston (?)

[Air Force Met]

I have seen nothing so far to suggest winds above 35KT

Not sure how accurate the obs are...but...

KGSM 041855Z 13045KT 1SM TS 25/24 A2980 RMK SEAS 10-12 GUSTS OF 55KT=

[RL3AO]

There is a small thunderstorm going over/near the center in the past 30 minutes. Keep your eye on it.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=multiple&itype=ir

Press the play ( > ) button.

[jabman98]

Wow, I had no idea your local media falsely reported it was mostly "a Louisiana storm." It made landfall in Southeast Texas and caused most of its damage here, from what I understand. It's always comical how Texas ends in the Houston area, then Louisiana begins.

I'm not sure they were technically reporting it as a Louisiana storm. But you are right that anything east of Houston sort of magically becomes Louisiana to the media. And, often, to the way the average person sees storms.

[HURAKAN]

First Name: Ed
Last Name: Popping

[Sanibel]

Has it slowed down in forward speed a notch?


If that shape was heading west through the Florida Straits...

['CaneFreak]

Looks like shear has really leasend....To me, it appears to me that he is getting much more organized... Fighting and pushing out that dry air...

I agree 100% with that....I can see bursting convection in the Western Quadrant, the Eastern Quadrant, and the other quadrants will likely burst with convection later this evening as this thing moves WEST at 5-7 mph.