ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HURAKAN]

Now, back to 94L:

[Cryomaniac]

I laugh at all that forecasted this season to have more then 15 storms.

That's not a sensible thing to say in July.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm sorry, but 15-20 knot shear over a strong cat4 or cat5 hurricane would cause it to weaken. No more and no less. A tropical storm like Alison, Barry 2001, Arlene where very much sheared tropical cyclones and they where tropical storms. Tell me where I'm wrong?

[KWT]

Still looks disorganised Huakan, a little convective wart has formed near 60W but the main convection is still running ahead of where the sharp wave is at the moment. another sure sign of shear present on this system.

Pro mets are pro mets for a reason ho hum....

[Derek Ortt]

that is so far from the truth

15.5KT of shear is about the mean shear for intensifying tropical storms. It is about the mean shear for weakening major hurricanes

Now tell me that one is not more shear resistant than the other

Question. How often is the shear being caused at the lower levels (the Caribbean now) than at the upper levels? And did your research look at just the shear (200mb-850mb?), or did it also look at if the shear was caused at the upper, middle, or lower levels? Hopefully that made sense.

I looked at 200-850 from SHIPS. I also only considered magnitude. Westerly shear can be caused by either strong low easterlies or upper westerlies. A sheared environment also occurs if there are strong upper easterlies but weak low level easterlies

[HURAKAN]

We must get back to 94L. If you want to communicate personally with another member, use the PM. Please, it's nonesense to lose your temper on such a disturbance. Back to 94L.

[Innotech]

personally I just think that shear is shear. Whether it is a developing depression or a full on hurricane, shear is going to affect it. I do think it would also depend on what level the shear is at because weak and strong storms are affected at varying heights, so really it could go both ways. It also depends on where on the storm the shear affects it, because shear going a certain direction can actually intensify a cyclonic rotation, if what Ive seen in the past has any merit.

[CajunMama]

ok...i've got a list started of a few that will be getting suspensions without warnings if this doesn't stop. No one wants to read your bickering. Take off the board.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We must get back to 94L. If you want to communicate personally with another member, use the PM. Please, it's nonesense to lose your temper on such a disturbance. Back to 94L.

94L looks bad at the moment. I can understand why the nhc did not upgrade it.

[mattpetre]

Here's my unofficial last opinion on this subject until tomorrow morning. Invest XXXL (that blob to the west of 94L) has created a more favorable environment at this point. 94L will and has already been a TS and may be more depending on quite a few synoptic factors that we have yet to see. I really though it would just be a Mexico event, but my now created -removed- self is seeing a GOM threat that should make some Pro-Mets eat many words. We'll see... I'm just sick of a discussion board that is supposed to be about love of the weather turning into a discussion board that is more about some peoples love of themselves whether they be pro or am... I've seen this before in sports, hobby, job, and life in general. Grow up and love one another... 94L will be Cristobal / Cat 3 hurricane, if I am wrong I will not return to this board. So good riddance for you, right?

[southerngale]

Let's drop the political references before it gets out of hand, as it usually does. There's nothing wrong with debating... just do it with respect.

cat5canes77... be careful. You're pushing it.

Btw, Matt... freedom of speech doesn't apply here. It's a private forum.


Now let's get back on topic. Future irrelevant posts may be deleted.

[Innotech]

the storm is pretty much proving the point that shear can affect a developing storm just as much as a hurricane. I personally do think this storm will survive and develop, but it is embedded in the westerlies and will likely end up in Nicaragua. At that point I will also agree that it WILL be a danger to that country with regards to mudslides. I do not refute that.

[Gustywind]

James Wilson, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
6:01 p.m. ET 7/16/2008
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have investigated a disturbance nearing the Windward Islands. The westward-moving disturbance has gained a significant amount of convection the past 24 hours. However, the Hurricane Hunters were only able to find a broad area of low pressure and not a well defined center. This feature will continue to be watched closely to see if it can make it to a tropical depression. Heavy showers and squally winds can be expected across the Windward Islands through tonight into early Thursday.

[southerngale]

Latest troll is now gone.

[Noles2006]

That got ugly in a hurry... kinda like 94L.

[mattpetre]

Am I gon3 now? I just typed a 100 word defense and got the "You cannot read messages in this forum message."

[RL3AO]

Am I gon3 now? I just typed a 100 word defense and got the "You cannot read messages in this forum message."

Your still here.

[Innotech]

I apologize if I added a bit of tension earlier with my sarcastic remark about the wind knocking over a table, but I really dont htink this storm is a threat at all AT PRESENT TIME. however that could, of course, change quickly.

[mattpetre]

it is dead jim

[img=http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/1151/stupidga3.jpg]

[Cryomaniac]

That got ugly in a hurry... kinda like 94L.

yeah.

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological, economic or otherwise. As such it shouldn't be used for any purpose.

I think that this could still be upgraded at 11, but it's looking less likely. If it is upgraded then it wont last all that long unless the shear lets up ahead of it, which is possible.