ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[captain east]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Considering Hanna is moving WSW and seems to be losing lattitude --- and the shear is blowing strong North to South....I don't see Hanna making a sharp NNW turn, sorry.

I'm leaning towards a solution closer to the UKMET and ECMWF.

That means I'm on board with Florida in the target zone, including the entire SE coast of Florida and E Coast of Florida, yes I said it.

I agree with you 100%

[Grease Monkey]

It's prudent not to concentrate on the line. It wouldn't take a left shift or a series of small left shifts here

NHC discussion snippet:

ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR
HANNA SINCE ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF HANNA MUCH CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0848.shtml

[KWT]

gatorcane, indeed the center seems to have relocated somewhat towards the deep convection and that has also dragged it a little further south of where it is.

The models are very keen to lift this out to the NW, but the key thing is obviously the further west it does get the further south the main threat zone will be unless it lifts out sharper than expected.

I think everyhwere in the SE must watch this system!

[StJoe]

S FL completely out of TWC's cone.

TWC "cones" are very small and the NHC cone should be used.

First of all Gatorcane, great reply. If we learn nothing else this season, let it be that we have not perfected a track as of yet. Lord knows I love the guys/gals at the weather channel, but sometimes they get a little out of control with all the chaos; I guess they do it for the ratings against CNN, Fox, blah, blah, blah. I really think SoFla has to keep an eye on Hanna and the train that is behind it. I will agree with TWC's Dr. Lyons about South Florida being the number 1 region for Canes to hit. Gotta love Cantore up there in Houma.

[gatorcane]

Here's a close-up of Hanna, seems WSW at a decent speed still:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[meteorologyman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

slowly, but maturely it looks like my wosrt case scenario(few pages back or more) is coming to play, though not sure about landfall as of now, and still not sure how fast it will intensify

[HURAKAN]

She moves, she swings!

[Trader Ron]

That means I'm on board with Florida in the target zone, including the entire SE coast of Florida and E Coast of Florida, yes I said it.

Gator, I'm taking the other side.

A track into the Linas...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

[mawolf3]

No met here just a weather enthusiast but I dont think s. fl is out of the woods yet. Christ is briefing now about Hanna on Baynews 9

[captain east]

Here's a close-up of Hanna, seems WSW at a decent speed still:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Do you have a estimation on how fast it's moving, all I know is that it is over 2 mph?

[Trader Ron]

Dang, I was writing as the Accu track was posted.

Can i change my forecast?

[mawolf3]

oops Crist I mean lol. Worried about more flooding in Fl if Hanna comes close

[tolakram]

[Philly12]

WSW movement is indicated in the NHC track. The NW turn is expected 2am Tuesday. That is the benchmark timeframe. If WSW or W continues into the day tomorrow SFL becomes more of a target.

[Grease Monkey]

WSW movement is indicated in the NHC track. The NW turn is expected 2am Tuesday. That is the benchmark timeframe. If WSW or W continues into the day tomorrow SFL becomes more of a target.

Any info on how fast she's moving?

[MBismyPlayground]

yup, I will follow ya'lls lead....A fla track would work well for me too. Now if all those little models would follow as well I could rest happy for the next week.

[jlauderdal]

Here's a close-up of Hanna, seems WSW at a decent speed still:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

first thing that caught my eye is that nice looking feature out in the central atlantic, gustav is going to fall off the radar screen here real quick with all of this development

[mawolf3]

WSW movement is indicated in the NHC track. The NW turn is expected 2am Tuesday. That is the benchmark timeframe. If WSW or W continues into the day tomorrow SFL becomes more of a target.

The models are showing this and then Fugate said an exceleration to the NW?

[gatorcane]

if you look at this animated progression of the NHC cone....for Hanna. All I see is the whole cone shifting west overall. Of course it was bending SW now NW...but the whole cone envelope keeps shifting west. I think the models could very-well be overdoing the weakness..at least the GFDL and HWRF.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[AdamFirst]

I don't think she's going to make the turn that soon. She looks to be moving too quickly.