ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

Hope that ridge drives Ikey to Mexico...7 days out still a long way to pinpoint a system.

[Stratosphere747]

Technically, Central Texas does have quite a number of inhabitants.

What y'all are discussing though is the Central Texas Coast ... not central Texas, where Austin is.

When Hurricane Rita was forecast to hit the Central Texas Coast, 1.1 million people were ordered to evacuate in Texas.

Most Texans break it down - Upper/Middle/Lower for the coastal regions.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hope that ridge drives Ikey to Mexico...7 days out still a long way to pinpoint a system.

Yup.

[ROCK]

Looks like a corpus strike there....Can't tell...Watched too many footballs flying today..Maybe the EURO is on to something Rocky.

Coop, I have been telling you bro...EURO latched on 2 days ago...4 runs in a row in same general area......globals have been trending west since....of course you called me a EURO hugger....

[jinftl]

If anything, the extent of the north movement being forecast may be too much once the storm enters the gulf....this very well could come closer to the north coast of the yucatan and be a mexico/south texas threat....tracks further and further west have been the trend in the 3-day forecast...that could begin with the longer range ones as well...esp if he stays on south side of forecast cone.

Bad run from the GFS, I suspect. 6Z is the run to watch.

I know how you feel Ed but unfortunately the models have been trending to the west.

Yes Ed, I hate to be the bear of bad news, but there has been a pronounced west
trend in the model runs, and considering the synoptics of that bridging ridge,
GFS may be onto a more synoptically reasonable path- bad news for Texas.

[Windy]

nasty run....central TX is not highly populated but still.....

That's seven days out. About the only reliable thing the model is saying is that it thinks it'll hit the central GOMEX and not get picked up by a trof by day 5.

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL...l hope you are right Rock..I am a EURO hugger. You proclaimed me one! LOL.

I dont want Ike in my back door. Went through Rita and it changed lives forever. It wasn't fun and this place is still scarred.

Go West Young Ike! Or someplace else!!!!

[ROCK]

nasty run....central TX is not highly populated but still.....

That's seven days out. About the only reliable thing the model is saying is that it thinks it'll hit the central GOMEX and not get picked up by the trof.

oh I have been here long enough not to hang my hat on any one run.....Windy....

[jinftl]

Has the trend been west over the runs? If the trough is not a big part of the forecast...not sure how ike will even get to latitude to threaten northern gulf.....i am on a mexico/south texas mindset right now...why would a nw movement commence if trough is not strong enough .....i say a west to wnw track through the forecast (after wsw ends...if it does)

nasty run....central TX is not highly populated but still.....

That's seven days out. About the only reliable thing the model is saying is that it thinks it'll hit the central GOMEX and not get picked up by a trof by day 5.

[haml8]

What is the science behind a central Texas coat hit (Corpus?).

[marcus B]

Still a a lot of time. anything can happen.

[ROCK]

LOL...l hope you are right Rock..I am a EURO hugger. You proclaimed me one! LOL.

I dont want Ike in my back door. Went through Rita and it changed lives forever. It wasn't fun and this place is still scarred.

Go West Young Ike! Or someplace else!!!!

yeah, I remember that with Dolly.. Seems like yesterday. I was screaming GFDL and you were screaming EURO... ..I wasnt to keen on the EURO back then however seeing a reliable model show the same area over multiple runs I began to think it was sniffing something the other models were not......

I also agree that Ike would be better suited in a non=populated place in MX.....

[Stormcenter]

Still a a lot of time. anything can happen.

That is so true. I'm still hanging on the idea Ike gets picked up by the trough
before he makes it into the Central GOM.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Looks like a corpus strike there....Can't tell...Watched too many footballs flying today..Maybe the EURO is on to something Rocky.

Coop, I have been telling you bro...EURO latched on 2 days ago...4 runs in a row in same general area......globals have been trending west since....of course you called me a EURO hugger....

Does this mean that you'll get your Shiner on ice then? I sure hope so 'cause then at least something good will come of this storm!

I'm just soooo giddy to be out of the cone for the moment and I hope that it stays that way!!

Sorry, Texas. You are a great state full of awesome people but, I really didn't want this one anywhere close to me!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian is FLA P'handle.

[marcus B]

Still a a lot of time. anything can happen.

That is so true. I'm still hanging on the idea Ike gets picked up by the trough
before he makes it into the Central GOM.

I think that’s the most likely senario.

[Sanibel]

Dumkoff. Wrong thread.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What is the science behind a central Texas coat hit (Corpus?).

Strong ridge, and the trough that was supposed to earlier turn Ike northward further east now
shows up as much weaker on these later GFS runs, and that is now in agreement with the
synoptics that show a big ridge and troughs that are too weak to turn it north,
meaning Ike would steer west into Texas. Of course, a big cold front could
come down from Canada by 7 days and save Texas by forcing Ike to turn
north in the Gulf further east of Texas, but the Latest GFS shows that cold front/trough
being much weaker than originally thought earlier. Again, a lot can change, but look at the
westward trend- the models have been trending west all day- for the past 2 days in fact,
and with that in mind, a 7 day forecast of a storm near Texas by the GFS is reasonable.


BUT ALSO, models shift radically, so this could be some place totally different than Texas in 6-7 days.
Wait and See.

[jinftl]

Ike never connects with weakness that is forecast in ridge. The lower in latitude he is...the more likely such a miss will take place...esp by a trough that is not forecast to grab ike and shove him to the northeast (like wilma). A nudge to the wnw and nw is the potential impact at most.

We have seen the storm move wsw pretty consistently the past day or more now. Forecast tracks have not shifted south as much as they have been shifting any wnw or now turn further west. It is the later and later forecast northerly component that has been a help to florida. But the track has not been shifting south...just further west before a northerly component is forecast.

Corpus would be furthest north landfall point in Gulf in this line of thinking. South TX/Mexico after brush with north coast of Yucatan.

I am not a forecaster so more than claiming this to be a forecast, it is a line of reasoning through observing what has been happening and running with that. More than anything, it is all my opinion and could be wrong.

What is the science behind a central Texas coat hit (Corpus?).

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian has dirty side all over Tampa/St Pete area on way to Panhandle...