Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[DESTRUCTION5]

Where is the 6Z GFDL and HWRF?

HWRF Same and GFDL Came back to reality...Lanfall Ft Meyers out Jax

[Scorpion]

HWRF 952 mb

[Dean4Storms]

HWRF 952 mb

Wow!

[El Nino]

HWRF 952 mb

952 mb supports a cat3 !

[Praxus]

Tampa could be in for a rude awakening, cat 3 style.

[Ivanhater]

18 Z Nogaps,,aint budging..shesh

[Frank P]

This thing gets a little farther west and can stay out over open water and extra 12-24 hours prior to hitting the west coast and all bets are off... could set up a pretty bad day for west coast of Florida... always seems like these systems will have a surprise or two prior to landfall...

[shah8]

I lurk, usually, but now I have a quick question...

I remember last year when Dean was constantly going west despite expectactions that it would be lifted northward. The ridge kept building on and on...

Is that possible with Fay? Or is the high above the Western Gulf going to directly block continued westward movement eventually?

[Ixolib]

always seems like these systems will have a surprise or two prior to landfall...

Good point, Frank. If anybody knows about "system surprises", we know who that would be!! For y'alls sake, let's just hope those west shifts don't become too extreme.......

[tolakram]

I lurk, usually, but now I have a quick question...

I remember last year when Dean was constantly going west despite expectactions that it would be lifted northward. The ridge kept building on and on...

Is that possible with Fay? Or is the high above the Western Gulf going to directly block continued westward movement eventually?

Dean was never expected to turn north. There were legions of people I disagree with convinced it would but the NHC track nailed it.

Dean snake
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_3W.shtml

There was a brief drift to the north, I had forgotten, but the track was generally accurate.

[shah8]

I am always going to remember Stormtop when he made the wierdest conjectures about Emily.

Guess my memories were of the people I disagree with. I do know the very early models did have it go north. And last year was notable for those two 'from sea to shining sea' cat 5 canes.

Thanks for the headsup. It's clarifying.

[tolakram]

I am always going to remember Stormtop when he made the wierdest conjectures about Emily.

Guess my memories were of the people I disagree with. I do know the very early models did have it go north. And last year was notable for those two 'from sea to shining sea' cat 5 canes.

Thanks for the headsup. It's clarifying.

The further out you go time wise the more inaccurate the models. 3 days is fairly accurate, 5 days can have some wild swings.

[blp]

Maybe I am looking at this in the wrong way, but it seems pretty simple right now to me. In the short term only: a stronger system will tend to move to the eastern half of the longer term guidance and a weaker system will move towards the western half of the longer term guidance. As many have said above the next few hours will be critical to were this will end up.

[KWT]

Models once again slightly shifting west, the HWRF shows a powerful system close to Tampa but a slight swest shift again and it goes into the panhandle.

Tricky one to call it seems!

BLP, yep thats a very simple idea of how it could evolve, I think the general idea of a gradual turn to the north looks solid its just a case of how far west it gets before that happens.

[jaxfladude]

Where is the 6Z GFDL and HWRF?

HWRF Same and GFDL Came back to reality...Landfall Ft Meyers out Jax

Yes!
I feel safe now that GFDL take Fay out to sea over me....

[vacanechaser]

Models once again slightly shifting west, the HWRF shows a powerful system close to Tampa but a slight swest shift again and it goes into the panhandle.

Tricky one to call it seems!

problem is, they have been back and forth now for some time... this is usually the case though... they go back and forth..

now, yesterday i called the gfs trash because i thought it was wrong in the intial and didnt think it would move west like it did.. i blew that one!! lol.. big time... just thought i would make that clear, and not make it look like i was ducking my mistake... lol...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[jdray]

18 Z Nogaps,,aint budging..shesh

Those of us with FireFox copy this:

Code: Select all

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NGP/2008081618/ngp10.z85.096.troplant.gif

paste it into a new window, allow the exception for the expired certificate, you can then view this image.

[blp]

Better consensus and looks tighter in the longer term.

[Frank P]

always seems like these systems will have a surprise or two prior to landfall...

Good point, Frank. If anybody knows about "system surprises", we know who that would be!! For y'alls sake, let's just hope those west shifts don't become too extreme.......

hey neighbor... like we all know in Sou MS... they sometimes don't always go back and forth.. Katrina kept going west, west, and west then made the big turn and then just nailed us, heck she even through in a little southwest just to show who was in control..... my opinion FWIW, and not much at that, is that it might get a little more westerly component but not enough to affect us... but it could certainly make matters worse for West FL... bottom line, I just watch in awe, what happens, happens.... just have to be ready and get the heck out when told....

[southerngale]

18 Z Nogaps,,aint budging..shesh

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

Those of us with FireFox copy this:

Code: Select all

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NGP/2008081618/ngp10.z85.096.troplant.gif

paste it into a new window, allow the exception for the expired certificate, you can then view this image.

I have FireFox and could view it fine in his post.