ATL: IKE Discussion

[Nexus]

Still seems to be wobbling a little N of pure west. It seems to meet up with the forcast points just right, maybe 1/2 on and 1/2 north of them. Should start wobbling South for the forcast to verify, otherwise we can effectively discount the model consensus that has it dipping, of course this has 24 hours to change.

You got your wobble south according to the 8:15 UTC image. Looks like it'll hit the 12 UTC point fairly on.

Eye has cleared back out, and is smaller than it's previous incarnation.

[HURAKAN]

It's still a little far out but the computer models continue to be real concerning.

[johngaltfla]

Well that was an interesting 0500 forecast on our local mets. Looks like this storm has the potential to visit a lot of us in Florida.

[Myersgirl]

Not looking good for South Florida right now, I hope those models keep on moving

[Frank P]

11:00 pm 26.0 and 80.0 110K as it goes inland
5:00 am 26.0 and 81.0 115K as it goes inland

more west

Extrapolating the 4 day out track at this point would concern me, the NHC did very well from 4 days out for both Fay and Gustav.. still have time but its not getting any better for SFL

[jlauderdal]

11:00 pm 26.0 and 80.0 110K as it goes inland
5:00 am 26.0 and 81.0 115K as it goes inland

more west

The 4 day out track at this point would concern me, the NHC did very well from 4 days out for both Fay and Gustav.. still have time but its not getting any better for SFL

no doubt and it appears the system wants to inflict a great deal of pain on the east and west coast and imagine if it gets headed up towards tampa after a se fla strike, the everglades doesn't exactly slow down intensity

[wxman57]

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/IkeModels00ZSep5a.gif

I dont know how you could look at these model plots and even mention SoFla being in the clear?

Check the part in bold about knowing that south FL is in the clear by Monday night! That is, AFTER Ike makes the turn. We won't know Florida will be missed - until it is.

Overnight model runs back west again, by the way. Into Miami. You'd better prepare for a major hit in Miami/SE FL like you haven't seen in a while. Fortunately, this is more an Andrew sized hurricane than a Wilma.

[Frank P]

11:00 pm 26.0 and 80.0 110K as it goes inland
5:00 am 26.0 and 81.0 115K as it goes inland

more west

The 4 day out track at this point would concern me, the NHC did very well from 4 days out for both Fay and Gustav.. still have time but its not getting any better for SFL

no doubt and it appears the system wants to inflict a great deal of pain on the east and west coast and imagine if it gets headed up towards tampa after a se fla strike, the everglades doesn't exactly slow down intensity

And looking at this graphic upwelling by Hanna should not be much of a factor either as Ike stays for the most part below the area affected by Hanna

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 0#contents

[gtsmith]

OK...now this is weird...my Apple desktop loads the SSD AVN loop of Ike with frames out to 0845UTC...my PC loads with frames to 0745UTC...other loops same thing...out to 0745 only. I've shut the browser and reloaded on the PC...same issue. Any one now why? Could it be the Java version on the PC? Sorry if wrong thread...

[zaqxsw75050]

Plotted 00z models. GFDL more north and an earlier turn toward south FL. That had an impact on the consensus models and they all now turn more sharply NW in the Bahamas. Not pointing at SE FL as much. Will know for sure if SE FL is in the clear by about - Monday night.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/IkeModels00ZSep5a.gif

I dont know how you could look at these model plots and even mention SoFla being in the clear?

Check the part in bold about knowing that south FL is in the clear by Monday night! That is, AFTER Ike makes the turn. We won't know Florida will be missed - until it is.

Overnight model runs back west again, by the way. Into Miami. You'd better prepare for a major hit in Miami/SE FL like you haven't seen in a while. Fortunately, this is more an Andrew sized hurricane than a Wilma.

By the way, the 00Z Euro shifted from New Orleans to South Carolina, passing just east of Jacksonville next Thursday:

I think you made a mistake here You posted the 12Z run of September 1. Here is what the 0Z run looks like:


Still LA landfall.

[jlauderdal]

11:00 pm 26.0 and 80.0 110K as it goes inland
5:00 am 26.0 and 81.0 115K as it goes inland

more west

The 4 day out track at this point would concern me, the NHC did very well from 4 days out for both Fay and Gustav.. still have time but its not getting any better for SFL

no doubt and it appears the system wants to inflict a great deal of pain on the east and west coast and imagine if it gets headed up towards tampa after a se fla strike, the everglades doesn't exactly slow down intensity

And looking at this graphic upwelling by Hanna should not be much of a factor either as Ike stays for the most part below the area affected by Hanna

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 0#contents

i never thought much of the whole upwelling idea considering the speedy pace that ike was forecast to move so i agree with you and this more southerly route, hurricanes love the water and the warm water at that and this one certainly wants a track to maximize that potential, im thinking this westerly idea has some merit and could get sofla out of a direct hit, we can all agree its going to lose some latitude so once that happens and if we can get a good ridge in place and drive it through the straits/keys all the way to the gulf..sorry to my neighbors in the keys and around the gulf but im looking for a way out for ike

rather stormy here this morning with that band that came in from hanna, had a short power outage and driving rain

[stayawaynow]

Well that was an interesting 0500 forecast on our local mets. Looks like this storm has the potential to visit a lot of us in Florida.

What was their forecast??

[Frank P]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 0#contents[/quote]

i never thought much of the whole upwelling idea considering the speedy pace that ike was forecast to move so i agree with you and this more southerly route, hurricanes love the water and the warm water at that and this one certainly wants a track to maximize that potential, im thinking this westerly idea has some merit and could get sofla out of a direct hit, we can all agree its going to lose some latitude so once that happens and if we can get a good ridge in place and drive it through the straits/keys all the way to the gulf..sorry to my neighbors in the keys and around the gulf but im looking for a way out for ike

rather stormy here this morning with that band that came in from hanna, had a short power outage and driving rain[/quote]

Then I guess you're pulling for the GFDL which takes it really south (south of cuba) as it would strike 4 cuban coasts (two on east and two on west) then enter the GOM.. that just doesn't look right... and plain weird looking, at least Cuba would beat it up somewhat if that scenario were to come to fruition...

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/0 ... maps.shtml

[jlauderdal]

Not looking good for South Florida right now, I hope those models keep on moving

noaa will be running a mission this afternoon and sampling around and ahead of ike and once that data gets into the models that should tighten them up and give us a better idea on track, be interesting to see sunday how that ridge is doing in the wake of hanna, nhc states the models seem to think the ridge will be fine, hopefully for se fl the ridge is stronger than forecast and we can keep ike heading west or wsw away from our area..that might be asking to much

[jinftl]

Interesting to note that if you look at the Wind Probabilty data from the 11pm advisory on Thursday to the 5am advisory on Friday, the overall probability has shifted south some...the highest overall probabilities are in bold.

Overall increases in probability have gone up for all locations, but increases were greatest advisory over advisory as you head south into Miami and Marathon for both 34kt and 50 kt winds.

Fort Pierce
34kt 30% at 11pm thurs
34% at 5am fri
50kt 13% at 11pm thurs
15% at 5am fri
64kt 5% at 11pm thurs
8% at 5am fri

West Palm Beach
34kt 35% at 11pm thurs
40% at 5am fri
50kt 14% at 11pm thurs
18% at 5am fri
64kt 7% at 11pm thurs
9% at 5am fri

Miami
34kt 35% at 11pm thurs
42% at 5am fri
50kt 16% at 11pm thurs
21% at 5am fri
64kt 8% at 11pm thurs
11% at 5am fri

Marathon
34kt 28% at 11pm thurs
37% at 5am fri
50kt 13% at 11pm thurs
19% at 5am fri
64kt 9% at 11pm thurs
11% at 5am fri

[jlauderdal]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085513.shtml?tswind120#contents

i never thought much of the whole upwelling idea considering the speedy pace that ike was forecast to move so i agree with you and this more southerly route, hurricanes love the water and the warm water at that and this one certainly wants a track to maximize that potential, im thinking this westerly idea has some merit and could get sofla out of a direct hit, we can all agree its going to lose some latitude so once that happens and if we can get a good ridge in place and drive it through the straits/keys all the way to the gulf..sorry to my neighbors in the keys and around the gulf but im looking for a way out for ike

rather stormy here this morning with that band that came in from hanna, had a short power outage and driving rain[/quote]

Then I guess you're pulling for the GFDL which takes it really south (south of cuba) as it would strike 4 cuban coasts (two on east and two on west) then enter the GOM.. that just doesn't look right... and plain weird looking, at least Cuba would beat it up somewhat if that scenario were to come to fruition...

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/0 ... maps.shtml[/quote]

gfdl doesnt look right but what im thinking is a track south of the mainland to the gulf, that really isnt asking too much and is certainly plausible at least at this point..sorry keys but a track through there is less painful overall than one into the mainland

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think they could still find a major later today. We will see.

[Myersgirl]

Last week, I cut nearly 80 coconuts down and put them out for horticulture day, so they would not be bombs in a storm. Too bad my neighbor got them first and piled them in HIS yard like cannon balls. So much for storm prep

[Sirius LeWindy]

Good Morning,

zaqxsw75050 you are still looking at the 00Z run. Wxman57 posted the latest 12Z run for today. Dang that is a big shift back up the coast. Die EURO die.

[Meso]

What? As zaqxsw75050 said, the image wxman57 posted was old...A simple error

The one zaqxsw75050 was the latest euro, the 00z... the 12z EURO comes out in 9 hours