Mozambique Channel: Moderate Tropical Storm Jokwe (TC 22S)

[Chacor]

Tropical Disturbance 12.

054
WTIO30 FMEE 050015

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12

2.A POSITION 2008/03/05 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 52.8E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/05 12 UTC: 12.6S/50.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/03/06 00 UTC: 13.1S/48.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/03/06 12 UTC: 13.7S/46.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/03/07 00 UTC: 14.3S/44.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2008/03/07 12 UTC: 15.1S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2008/03/08 00 UTC: 15.7S/41.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
LLCC IS RATHER WELL DEFINED ON THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (TRMM 04/2149Z)
AND REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
ENVIRONEMENT IS FAIRLY EASTERLY SHEARED - BUT THE WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO
SLIGHTLY DECREASE - AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. EQUATORWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK. POTENTIEL OF INTENSIFICATION
FOR THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED.
THIS SYTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

[HURAKAN]

97S has been dropped from NRL. 22S should be up soon.

[HURAKAN]

TPXS11 PGTW 050030

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97S (NE OF MADAGASCAR)

B. 04/2330Z

C. 11.9S

D. 53.4E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.0/06HRS (04/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT ARE 3.0. DBO MET/PT.

GEIS

[G.B.]

Is now 22S No Name on NRL

[G.B.]

050300z position near 12.0s 52.9e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 22s (noname) located approximately 570 nm
northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar, has tracked westward at
14 knots over the past 06 hours. Tc 22s has a well-defined low
level circulation center with the majority of the deep convection
displaced to the west. This displacement is due to moderate
easterly vertical wind shear. The limiting factor of the shear
is being offset by favorable ocean heat content and good upper
level outflow. Tc 22s will continue to track generally westward
along the periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge to the south
of the storm through the entire forecast period. This track will
cause land fall around tau 24 to the northern tip of Madagascar.
The storm will continue to increase in intensity until landfall
after which land interaction will limit intensification. The
storm will remerge into the Mozambique Channel prior to tau 36
and intensify due to a favorable upper level environment and
sea surface temperatures. The forecast track and intensity are
close to the consensus of the numerical and statistical models,
which are in good agreement. This warning supersedes and cancels
ref a, navpacmetoccen 041621zmar2008 tropical cyclone formation
alert (wtxs21 pgtw 041630) maximum significant wave height at
050000z is 12 feet. Next warnings at 051500z and 060300z. Refer
to tropical cyclone 21s (ophelia) warnings (wtxs31 pgtw) for
twelve-hourly updates.//

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041621Z MAR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS32 PGTW 050300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 11.9S 53.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 53.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 12.2S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 12.4S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.7S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.3S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 52.9E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 041621Z
MAR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 041630 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

05/0230 UTC 12.2S 52.4E T3.0/3.0 22S -- South Indian Ocean

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 986
WTIO30 FMEE 050627 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/12/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12
2.A POSITION 2008/03/05 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1S / 51.6E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 040 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/05 18 UTC: 12.6S/49.1E OVERLAND.
24H: 2008/03/06 06 UTC: 13.1S/47.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/03/06 18 UTC: 13.6S/45.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/03/07 06 UTC: 14.1S/44.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2008/03/07 18 UTC: 14.5S/43.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2008/03/08 06 UTC: 14.9S/42.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

05/0830 UTC 11.6S 51.6E T3.0/3.0 22S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 707
WTIO30 FMEE 051235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/12/20072008
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/05 AT 1200 UTC :
12.0S / 50.6E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/06 00 UTC: 12.2S/48.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2008/03/06 12 UTC: 12.8S/46.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
36H: 2008/03/07 00 UTC: 13.4S/45.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2008/03/07 12 UTC: 13.9S/43.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/03/08 00 UTC: 14.2S/42.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 14.4S/41.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-
LLCC IS RATHER WELL DEFINED.
EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED, AND THE SYSTEM HAS
INTENSIFIED
AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE DURING LAST HOURS, WITH A NICE
CURVED BAND PATTERB.
FOR THIS SMALL SYSME, THE ASSOCIATED MSLP IS HIGHER THAN FOT SUCH AN
INTENSITY CLASSICAL SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD, SEA POTENTIAL HEAT IS SUFFICIENT (SST AT
MORE THAN 27,5 CELSIUS DEGREES), BUT EQUATORWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS
WEAK.
THIS SYTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG
THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AFTER HAVING CROSSED THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY
OVER THE WARM SEAS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, BETWEEN THE
NORTHWESTERN
COASTS OF MADAGASCAR AND COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

50kts-985mb

[Crostorm]

REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 50.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY TOWARD A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TC 22S HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
DECREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME LIMITATION IMPOSED BY LAND
INTERACTION AND PERSISTENT, THOUGH MODERATE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
AFTER TAU 24, THE STORM MAY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSI-
FICATION AS IT MOVES UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND OVER
VERY WARM WATER IN THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY-PACKED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE, WHICH ESTIMATES A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION TREND DURING
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND
061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OPHELIA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

05/1430 UTC 11.8S 50.6E T3.5/3.5 JOKWE -- South Indian Ocean

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

TPXS11 PGTW 051804

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE)

B. 05/1730Z

C. 11.9S

D. 50.1E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS (05/1730Z)

G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAP OF .90 ON LOG 10
YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

AMES


--
PH

[Sanibel]

Busy year Madagascar.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 55 knots

[HURAKAN]

Landfall: