WPAC SINLAKU: Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Finally something in the WPAC, it seemed to go dead for a while which is quite unusual.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0813 SINLAKU (0813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 17.0N 125.5E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 19.4N 124.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 110000UTC 20.2N 124.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 120000UTC 21.8N 125.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneBill]

Is it just me or has the WPAC been extremely quiet this year?

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0813 SINLAKU (0813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 17.3N 125.3E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 100300UTC 19.4N 124.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 110000UTC 20.2N 124.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 120000UTC 21.8N 125.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[senorpepr]

Is it just me or has the WPAC been extremely quiet this year?

Courtesy of P.K.:

[bob rulz]

Is it just me or has the WPAC been extremely quiet this year?

It was fairly busy early on but the last month has been dead, which is strange because it's the WPAC and it's supposed to be near the peak of the season.

This storm looks primed for some good intensification. It's a fairly large storm and has incredible banding features. It actually looks a lot like Ike does at the moment.

[RattleMan]

WTPQ20 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0813 SINLAKU (0813) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 17.6N 125.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 19.4N 124.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 110600UTC 20.0N 124.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 120600UTC 21.7N 125.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[Chacor]

A few hours old:

224
URPA12 PGUA 090635
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/06:35:50Z
B. 17 deg 58 min N
125 deg 15 min E
C. 700 mb 2978 m
D. 56 kt
E. 090 deg 28 nm
F. 354 deg 37 kt
G. 259 deg 38 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 11 C / 3048 m
J. 13 C / 3049 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. NA
M. C25
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0133W SINLAKU OB 18
MAX FL WIND 65 KT E QUAD 04:34:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 13 C 238 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Chacor]

WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.9N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.9N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.0N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.2N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.5N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 27.1N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.3N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 125.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
WARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.

[P.K.]

RSMC Tokyo up to T4.0 now.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Sinlaku is really coming together nicely now. As other said the last couple of weeks have been pretty quiet.

I'm keeping an especially close eye on this since I'm flying to Taiwan on Friday to shoot a documentary about typhoons. The whole idea is to visit places which have been ravaged by previous typhoons on a "nice day" but looks like there is a slim chance that plan might be disrupted

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0813 SINLAKU (0813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 18.5N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 20.1N 124.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 111200UTC 21.4N 125.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 121200UTC 23.1N 125.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (SINLAKU) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.6N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.4N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.1N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.8N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 27.4N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 31.0N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 125.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.

WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
WAS UPGRADED TO TYPHOON (TY) STATUS AT 09/12Z. ANIMATED INFRARED SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090910Z 37GHZ WINDSAT IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
STRONG INFLOW WRAPPING INWARD TOWARDS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS SAME MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY WELL
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
TRACKERS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THOUGH EGRR AND GFDN REMAIN OUTLIERS
TO THE WEST AND EAST RESPECTIVELY.
B. TY 15W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS
TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE 09/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES DEPICTS
A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITH A WEAKNESS NEAR 27N 127E,
AND TWO ANTICYCLONES (LOCATED NEAR 26N 135E AND 30N 117E). TY 15W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN-MOST STR/ANTICYCLONE, TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOC-
IATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC WHICH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY SEVERAL AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING LOCATED
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ANIMATED INFRARED METSAT IMAGERY AND THE 090910Z WINDSAT IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES, PGTW AND
RJTD OF 65 KNOTS AND A RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DEPICTING SURFACE
WINDS OF 58 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM .
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE TRACK HOWEVER, HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER STR NORTH OF THE SYSTEM,
AND THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 110 KNOTS DUE TO RAPID INTEN-
SIFICATION AND EXPECTED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72.
B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MID-LEVEL STR THROUGH TAU 72. A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
COUPLED WITH A STRONG STR NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIMIT FORWARD TRACK
SPEEDS THROUGH TAU 48. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 48 WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT
MERIDIONAL PATTERN WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR JUST EAST OF JAPAN.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS NORTH-
EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OUTLIERS. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE CONSENSUS OF
THE AVAILABLE AIDS WHICH SUPPORT SLOWER SPEEDS AND A CONTINUED POLEWARD
TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM SST WITH HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT THROUGH TAU 72 WHICH WILL SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AS IT
TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE AMPLIFIED STR INTO SOUTHWESTERN
JAPAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
NEAR TAU 96 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

[bob rulz]

This storm looks primed for some good intensification. It's a fairly large storm and has incredible banding features. It actually looks a lot like Ike does at the moment.

Wow, "good" intensification was an understatement. This storm has exploded! And it's freaking huge. I expect a very classic West Pacific storm (finally!) in the next day or so.

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0813 SINLAKU (0813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 18.9N 125.1E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 20.4N 124.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 111200UTC 21.4N 125.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 121200UTC 23.1N 125.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[P.K.]

T4.5 from RSMC Tokyo so it looks like we have a typhoon now. The first Taiwanese reconnaissance flight will take place round Sinlaku tonight.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0813 SINLAKU (0813) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 19.3N 124.9E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 200NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 20.7N 124.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 111800UTC 22.4N 125.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 121800UTC 24.3N 125.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =