ATL Ex. INVEST 92L: Discussion

[Tampa_God]

We have a landfalling hurricane along one of our nation's most populated coastline's but obviously that's not enough for you guys, let's talk about this thunderstorm in the middle of nowhere.

We started talking about Ike when it was a TD. By that time, we were talking about Gustav becoming a Cat 4 storm hitting NOLA. So everything needs to be talked about.

[otowntiger]

We have a landfalling hurricane along one of our nation's most populated coastline's but obviously that's not enough for you guys, let's talk about this thunderstorm in the middle of nowhere.

Yes, we have a landfalling hurricane in one of our most populated areas and you find it necessary to come here and read this and post about how we shouldn't be posting on this storm. Very ironic.

[abajan]

We have a landfalling hurricane along one of our nation's most populated coastline's but obviously that's not enough for you guys, let's talk about this thunderstorm in the middle of nowhere.

Excuse me but isn't this a weather discussion board?

[USTropics]

Alright let's bring this back to the topic, Chad has already informed Jason that this is a weather discussion board, and that all areas of interest in the Atlantic will be monitored. Circulation is evident at 43W/16N and CIMMS Shear Tendency is showing decreasing shear ahead of 92L. Plenty of convection to work with as well.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

[HURAKAN]

Just keep an eye on it but nothing to get excited at the moment.

[terrapintransit]

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... t_atl.html

[CrazyC83]

Awaiting the 2 pm TWD. Upgrade to orange?

[cycloneye]

Still yellow.


ABNT20 KNHC 131810
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IKE...LOCATED NEAR PALESTINE TEXAS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...INCLUDING SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE...IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED DISORGANIZED TODAY AND DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE NOT INCREASED
TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

[terrapintransit]

Looks like 92L maybe trying to do something. Just an amateur observation.......

[Blown Away]

92L is not shown in that view, did you mean 91L which is N of Hispanola?

92L's almost naked LLC is clearly visible near 16N/45.4W moving almost due W. 92L has a tight LLC, just needs convection. 92L is remaining shallow and should continue more W, if the circulation can survive the next day or so until that shear lessons a little it will be near 20N/60W with a ridge building above it. IMO, 92L has the potential to be a player in a few days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[terrapintransit]

:uarrow: 92L is not shown in that view, did you mean 91L which is N of Hispanola?

92L's almost naked LLC is clearly visible near 16N/45.4W moving almost due W. 92L has a tight LLC, just needs convection. 92L is remaining shallow and should continue more W, if the circulation can survive the next day or so until that shear lesson a little it will be near 20N/60W with a ridge building above it. IMO, 92L has the potential to be a player in a few days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Ooops...I guess I meant 91L. I told you it was amateur

[Sanibel]

See if it flares tonight.

[HurricaneFreak]

Sighs
So now we wait to see if this circulation can hold and if it does for the next few days then something interesting should happen.

[HurricaneFreak]

Maybe when Ike leaves the NHC and other stations will study and focus more on these invest ...that will give us more info.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 132349
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IKE...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

A SMALL AND NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING VERY DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Blown Away]

Peak of the hurricane season and it seems most of the Atlantic is unfavorable, Ike took advantage of a small window of opportunity and made the most of it, likely into retirement and the weather history books.

LLC is moving just N of due W and is near 16.2N/46W. Convection building directly on the E side of the LLC and deep convection building away from the LLC on the SE side. 92L is holding its own rate now. The models don't have a handle on this weak circulation rate now because 92L is not moving NW like most of the models show.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: Peak of the hurricane season and it seems most of the Atlantic is unfavorable, Ike took advantage of a small window of opportunity and made the most of it, likely into retirement and the weather history books.

LLC is moving just N of due W and is near 16.2N/46W. Convection building directly on the E side of the LLC and deep convection building away from the LLC on the SE side. 92L is holding its own rate now. The models don't have a handle on this weak circulation rate now because 92L is not moving NW like most of the models show.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

the Atlantic needs a recharge for a final push then we will start to look closer in around the gulf and caribbean

[Blown Away]

92L's convection is really popping tonight, but it's all on the E side of the LLC. I'm afraid that LLC is going to out run that big ball of convection.

IMHO, again the latest models are not handling this weak LLC. It's clearly moving just N of due W, not NW like the models show. It seems the models are building a ridge and turning 92L back to the W after a few days, so if 92L hangs on with all the shear it may have a chance of not being a fish if it catches a ride under a building ridge. Rate now it does not appear 92L will cross 20N before getting to 60W. I was not feeling 91L, but I'm thinking 92L will be significant if it survives the shear.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[MHurricanes]

92L's convection is really popping tonight, but it's all on the E side of the LLC. I'm afraid that LLC is going to out run that big ball of convection.

IMHO, again the latest models are not handling this weak LLC. It's clearly moving just N of due W, not NW like the models show. It seems the models are building a ridge and turning 92L back to the W after a few days, so if 92L hangs on with all the shear it may have a chance of not being a fish if it catches a ride under a building ridge. Rate now it does not appear 92L will cross 20N before getting to 60W. I was not feeling 91L, but I'm thinking 92L will be significant if it survives the shear.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Agree, definitely a blow-up in convection. Let's see if it continues moving in a WNW direction rather than sweeping northward. Something to keep an "eye" on.

- MHurricanes

[Stormcenter]

92L's convection is really popping tonight, but it's all on the E side of the LLC. I'm afraid that LLC is going to out run that big ball of convection.

IMHO, again the latest models are not handling this weak LLC. It's clearly moving just N of due W, not NW like the models show. It seems the models are building a ridge and turning 92L back to the W after a few days, so if 92L hangs on with all the shear it may have a chance of not being a fish if it catches a ride under a building ridge. Rate now it does not appear 92L will cross 20N before getting to 60W. I was not feeling 91L, but I'm thinking 92L will be significant if it survives the shear.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Thank goodness it's September 13th and not August 13th.