ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[RL3AO]

Of course the GFDL forecasts a 66kt hurricane in 30 hours and we know thats not going to happen.

[KWT]

Yeah thats true its way too agressive in that regards but then again given its likely to get into the Caribbean from this point I would suspect there is every chance of a strong system like the models expect...

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO east of Florida

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008082212!!/

[KWT]

Yep an interesting run also pretty far east as well and interestingly looks like its got that westerly motion on the southern system as well till 72hrs.

So in others words the ECM is yet again the eastern outlier...

[deltadog03]

This had to take the carrib. route to develop...IMO.. Anyone have any GFS shear map that they can post. I remembe seeing it somewhere yesterday and it looked like there was more than favorable conditions.

[gatorcane]

New EURO east of Florida

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008082212!!/

Yes but it was well to the right of Florida in the previous run, then yesterday's run showed it just south of Cuba. That is telling me it expects something signficant to head generally in a WNW or NW direction from the Eastern Caribbean or Western MDR and be generally in the vicinity between Cuba, Bahamas, or Western Atlantic in the appx 7-10 day timeframe.

That run is way too close to Florida for comfort

[deltadog03]

I think the euro from the other day that had it possibly near western cuba seems more correct.

[Stratosphere747]

EURO only looks viable if the northern area were to develop. For the short-term the southern area looks to be more favorable and a track deeper into the Caribbean is more likely.

[KWT]

The thing I like about the 12z ECM today is the location at 72hrs around 66-68W and 13-14N will probably not be far off IMO, the key that happens is does the system really turn as sharply as the ECM wants or does it not connect as well and just carry on NW towards Cuba?

[artist]

This had to take the carrib. route to develop...IMO.. Anyone have any GFS shear map that they can post. I remembe seeing it somewhere yesterday and it looked like there was more than favorable conditions.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Dean4Storms]

Not liking the looks of this one, has major hurricane written all over it for someone.

[Scorpion]

NOGAPS

[Ivanhater]

Not liking the looks of this one, has major hurricane written all over it for someone.

Yeah Dean, just when were finishing up with Fay, This could be spinning up near Jamica

[KWT]

Depends whether it decides to take the track that some models are or the other track which would keep it in the Caribbean Sea for a while.

I do think its going to have to be a pretty big weakness according to the models if its to head N/NNW like some models prog.

[SouthFLTropics]

NOGAPS

I'm not liking the look of that ridge of High Pressure sitting on top of that...Steering to the west in that pic if I'm reading it right...and I think that I am.

SFT

[gatorcane]

UKM also shows this big Western Atlantic ridge and something north of the big islands getting underneath it. I checked the CMC and it shows something but over Cuba heading WNW slowly:

[KWT]

Still attached to the weakness but just like Fay right now that would eventually bend back west you'd have to imagine or at least gain some lontitude anyway.

[Stratosphere747]

Again these early model runs are showing the area to the N developing.

Look back down around 11/53.

[KWT]

Its hard to say Stratosphere, the trend is for there to a weakness and 94L to move into it to some degree, exactly how much though will dictate whether it stays in the Caribbean till at least Cuba or whether it can lift north near Hispaniola.

[gatorcane]

Again these early model runs are showing the area to the N developing.

Look back down around 11/53.

Yes that is the 1009MB low depicted by TAFB its already moving WNW and gaining lattitude.