TC Bertha

[ncweatherwizard]

Last night's microwave didn't show a full eye-like feature, but that banding has been there around the center for at least 24 hours. It's also still a bit elongated north to south. Definitely not hurricane yet, but with QuikSCAT this morning at 45-50kts, you could probably go for 55kts. IR just isn't showing anything other than some improved outflow and a small CDO. Hopefully, tonight's QuikSCAT will hit it.

sp

[MiamiensisWx]

Note that the feature was evident on the last visibles as well. My verdict is 55 kt based on all raw/empirical data and discernible evidence.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2008 Time : 221500 UTC
Lat : 18:12:36 N Lon : 47:20:35 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 997.0mb/ 53.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.4 3.6 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.8mb

Center Temp : -69.2C Cloud Region Temp : -59.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
Sunday 06jul08 Time: 1957 UTC
Latitude: 18.56 Longitude: -46.73
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 20 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 989 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 69 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.32
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.74
RMW: 56 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1012 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-16
ATCF data for Month: 07 Day: 06 Time (UTC): 1800

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/atl42.html
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

[MiamiensisWx]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
Sunday 06jul08 Time: 1957 UTC
Latitude: 18.56 Longitude: -46.73
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 20 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 989 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 69 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.32
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.74
RMW: 56 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1012 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-16
ATCF data for Month: 07 Day: 06 Time (UTC): 1800

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/atl42.html
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

Can you post a link to this data? Thanks!

[Weatherfreak000]

So 55KT at the next advisory. Everything is on par for it to be officially a hurricane tomorrow morning.

[Brent]

Looking really nice this afternoon. I'm expecting a hurricane by tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
Sunday 06jul08 Time: 1957 UTC
Latitude: 18.56 Longitude: -46.73
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 20 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 989 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 69 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.32
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.74
RMW: 56 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1012 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-16
ATCF data for Month: 07 Day: 06 Time (UTC): 1800

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/atl42.html
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

now that sounds more like it.. link.

[KWT]

Yeah that data does sound interesting, much higher then the other sat.estimates though even these are getting there slowly bit by bit, now not far from being high enough to support 55kts.

(ps, 101pages!)

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/atl/42/intensity.txt

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

the ADT history for bertha.. notice the last 3
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=0

[senorpepr]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
Sunday 06jul08 Time: 1957 UTC
Latitude: 18.56 Longitude: -46.73
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 20 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 989 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 69 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.32
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.74
RMW: 56 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1012 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-16
ATCF data for Month: 07 Day: 06 Time (UTC): 1800

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/atl42.html
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

now that sounds more like it.. link.

But consider this:

That had a 20Z estimate of 69KT, but NHC (and all other reasonable evidence) had ~50KT at 21Z.

So, in my opinion, I throw this:

[Aric Dunn]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
Sunday 06jul08 Time: 1957 UTC
Latitude: 18.56 Longitude: -46.73
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 20 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 989 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 69 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.32
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.74
RMW: 56 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1012 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-16
ATCF data for Month: 07 Day: 06 Time (UTC): 1800

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/atl42.html
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

now that sounds more like it.. link.

But consider this:

That had a 20Z estimate of 69KT, but NHC (and all other reasonable evidence) had ~50KT at 21Z.

So, in my opinion, I throw this:

well at least your funny..

[KWT]

Its still interesting though and without recon who knows what the true strength of this system actually is, we've seen before systems estimated at mid range tropical storms that turn out to be hurricanes. I'm NOT saying thats the case here by any means but without recon we can't totally say everything is BS, even though I admit that does look a little suspect on the high side to say the least!

[jlauderdal]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
Sunday 06jul08 Time: 1957 UTC
Latitude: 18.56 Longitude: -46.73
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 20 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 989 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 69 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.32
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.74
RMW: 56 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1012 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-16
ATCF data for Month: 07 Day: 06 Time (UTC): 1800

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/atl42.html
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

now that sounds more like it.. link.

But consider this:

That had a 20Z estimate of 69KT, but NHC (and all other reasonable evidence) had ~50KT at 21Z.

So, in my opinion, I throw this:

that bs flag will come in very handy the next few months

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Latest IR image looks really good IMO

[Aric Dunn]

we are few hours away from the next advisory and 70mph or 75 is probable. .as the trend has continued.

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

come on dont sit ther and tell me that is not a minamal hurricane..