Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Extremeweatherguy]

Check out the Accuweather Tuesday forecast for Orlando, FL...



Obviously this computer generated forecast is a little bit extreme and probably over-the-top (unless Fay strengthens more than expected), but it is still quite interesting to look at. It definitely is not everyday that you see forecasted winds of 59mph with gusts to 100mph in Orlando, FL.

[Nimbus]

very interesting water vapor is indicating what appears to be a devleping ULL just south of western cuba..GFS had inticated this nicely a few days ago..

The ULL might roll southwest and ventilate. Doesn't look like it will be the stubborn defender type.

[Derek Ortt]

radar and satellite images indicating a definite slowdown and a more north of west or wnw motion..

that's the convection wrapping around the north side of the center

[physicx07]

Sorry, I know this is a waste of a comment, but..... LOL!

Check out the Accuweather Tuesday forecast for Orlando, FL...



Obviously this computer generated forecast is a little bit extreme and probably over-the-top (unless Fay strengthens more than expected), but it is still quite interesting to look at. It definitely is not everyday that you see forecasted winds of 59mph with gusts to 100mph in Orlando, FL.

[AdamFirst]

The National Weather Service forecasts don't list wind speed projections for Tuesday...they don't want to come off looking as fools

[Aric Dunn]

intersting
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Bocadude85]

intersting
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

what is that Aric?

[Bgator]

intersting
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Really odd, has it entering central florida and going straight east crossing lake O...weiiird.

[Steve]

They European from earlier today.

TPS

[orion]

I just realized that this site: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/ (I think it came from one of Aric's post within the last few days) also has model plots on it divided up into consensus/ensemble, dynamical, and other...



Click on the storm or invest you want on the map on this page, then you have a ton of options such as making animations, overlaying sat images, shear, conv, div, quickscat, models, etc.

[hcane27]

So does this one .....

http://www.hurricanealley.net/natl.html

[sfwx]

The National Weather Service forecasts don't list wind speed projections for Tuesday...they don't want to come off looking as fools

You can find their wind speed forecast for Tuesday here:


http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphi ... t.php#tabs

[sunnyday]

So, is the consensus that the storm will not make landfall on the east coast of Fl? Is it almost certain?

[AdamFirst]

So, is the consensus that the storm will not make landfall on the east coast of Fl? Is it almost certain?

It's still way too early to tell.

[Bocadude85]

Its very still here and humid.. wind is dead calm

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, it is the NAM, but fairly close now to NHC track.

[img][/img]

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS should start any second now...

[AtlanticWind]

Gfs looks to right of the last run at 24 hours

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_024l.gif
GFS at 24 hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_024l.gif
500 mb 24 hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif
GFS @ 36 hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_036l.gif
500 mb 36hr

[RyanMcD29]

Check out the Accuweather Tuesday forecast for Orlando, FL...



Obviously this computer generated forecast is a little bit extreme and probably over-the-top (unless Fay strengthens more than expected), but it is still quite interesting to look at. It definitely is not everyday that you see forecasted winds of 59mph with gusts to 100mph in Orlando, FL.

Well my sister and my aunt and uncle and cousins picked the right day to fly to Disney....