ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[LSU2001]

I think the current term that is favored is "eye like feature"
Thats what has been bandied about earlier today.
Tim

[Ivanhater]

Everybody is talking about how tiny it is, somebody correct me if I am wrong but doesn't it have the chance to get larger as it strengthens and doesn't the wind field normally increase with strength?

The GFDL and HWRF show a big wind radius increase once it enters the gulf

[Smurfwicked]

Everybody is talking about how tiny it is, somebody correct me if I am wrong but doesn't it have the chance to get larger as it strengthens and doesn't the wind field normally increase with strength?

The GFDL and HWRF show a big wind radius increase once it enters the gulf

Well that is more of what I was thinking once it had more room with open waters it naturally would want to become bigger.

[Dean4Storms]

The wind field will expand due to EWRC and time over Water if it gets into the GOM which looks highly probable right now.

[Frank P]

looks to be right on track... hugh blow up of convection in works on the west wall, and convection starting to flare up on the north east as well... healthly looking TS, if it is still just a TS... my opinion only .. FWIW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I think the current term that is favored is "eye like feature"
Thats what has been bandied about earlier today.
Tim

I don't think that is just a eye like feature considering recon this afternoon found a closed eyewall. I think that IS the eye and by the first visible images tomorrow we should be able to clearly see it.

[Dean4Storms]

This isn't looking so good for the upper Gulf Coast come next week with the way things look right now, of course things could change.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

this is going to be a freakin' huge storm like most carribean storms. little gus is going to be a big bully that no on wants.........look at the history of carribean storms how monsterous they become.......carla 1961 comes to mind....

[sunnyday]

Does SE Fl seem to be pretty much out of the woods at this time if things don't change drastically?

[LSU2001]

I think the current term that is favored is "eye like feature"
Thats what has been bandied about earlier today.
Tim

I don't think that is just a eye like feature considering recon this afternoon found a closed eyewall. I think that IS the eye and by the first visible images tomorrow we should be able to clearly see it.

True I forgot about the recon report of closed eyewall
After looking at the Rainbow floater I think it is trying very hard to develop a true CDO. If ,and big if here, it is able to wrap the strong convection all the way around I think it will be able to go through a RI cycle.
JMHO,
Tim

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

[Over my head]

General area of the center shows up quite in the IR loops, something that you don't see very often in a developing TS...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

edited AFTER FURTHER REVIEW ..

No second guessing Frank! As I looked at this loop you posted, I watched the huge piece break away and thought how odd to see it do that...or maybe it's normal??? I'm such a newb... then within the next thirty minutes there was the eye on the satellite WV loop big as ever you please. Like it needed to rid itself of that in order to spin.

[Dean4Storms]

Is it me or has Gustav really slowed down?

[mattpetre]

Everyone does now see that ridge strengthening just off the SW coast of Florida now? wxman57 and D. Ortt had this one pretty good and I must commend them on early forecasting skills. I still believe it will probably miss the coast of Haiti, but it really doesn't matter if it does or not. Looks to be real high % chance of a GOM problem now. Big questions are now regarding how the ridge will build once ex-Fay leaves to the NE and what the 500mb ridge will do in the TX area.

Ed, I'm afraid TX may not be in the all clear yet.

[RL3AO]

That is not eye forming so fast is it?

Its had an eye since before the NHC called it a depression.

[Dean4Storms]

Don't know if this has been posted........

From NWS Mobile Discussion this afternoon.

This weekend trough settling down over the northern Gulf is what might open the door to Gustav to come northward once in the Gulf.



.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...FAY LEAVES BEHIND A WEAK
SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WHEN INTERACTING WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATERS ~1.75 INCHES) WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALBEIT...AT MUCH LESS COVERAGES THAN WE
HAVE SEEN OF LATE. RAIN CHANCES CREEPING BACK UP THROUGH THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WEAK TROF OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...AN UNPLEASANTRY IS THE REALITY THAT WE ARE MOVING INTO
THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON. ATLANTIC BASIN ACTIVITY IS RAMPING UP
WITH NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV NOW ON THE MAPS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER (21Z) TAKES GUSTAV NORTHWEST THROUGH HAITI TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THEN UP ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE BENDING BACK MORE TO
THE WEST AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA.
ALTHOUGH WE HAVEN`T GOT FAY OUT OF THE PICTURE YET...WILL HAVE TO BE
KEEPING A WATCH ON THIS ONE AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR GUSTAV TO
GET INTO THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED. /10

[cpdaman]

Is it me or has Gustav really slowed down?

it's slowed down to a bit of a crawl over the last 2 hours

[twister]

I was about to post the floater rb imagery. Gus does have a good amount of convection. The outflow beginning to show nicely.

[fci]

Does SE Fl seem to be pretty much out of the woods at this time if things don't change drastically?

Given your qualification about if things don't change drastically; the answer would be YES.

And I am glad that it is.

[fasterdisaster]

So does it look like FOR NOW it won't be taking the route with the most land interaction (over Hispaniola and then horizontally over Cuba) and will only be clipping some parts of Cuba?

[93superstorm]

Going to be interesting when it wraps the huge balls of convection around: