ATL: IKE Discussion

[wxman57]

I think you made a mistake here You posted the 12Z run of September 1. Here is what the 0Z run looks like:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Still LA landfall.

Oops! Darn bookmark was date specific on the EC page.

[Sirius LeWindy]

Oh good,

Sorry not quite awake yet.

[KWT]

No Wxman57 put up the *wrong* chart, that was from the 1st of September, a little out of date!

Anyway things are not looking good for Florida right now, esp the south as alot of the models are now pointing towards S.Florida and whilst it is early days its starting to look like there is more risk of a cuba hit then a recurve....

Still everywhere needs watching its still far away enough to need watching very closely.

[jinftl]

Forecast points from 11pm thurs advisory to 5am friday advisory show storm gaining longitude, not latitude over the 6 hour change in forecast position between advisories...reflects general shift west (although storm heading may be wnw or nw)

Thurs 11pm adv: Forecast position at 11pm Monday (9/8), 24.0N & 77.0W
Fri 5am adv: Forecast position at 5am Tuesday (9/9), 24.0N & 78.5W

Thurs 11pm adv: Forecast position at 11pm Tuesday (9/9), 26.0N & 80.0W (near Fort Lauderdale)
Fri 5am adv: Forecast position at 5am Wednesday (9/10), 26.0N & 81.0W

[Sirius LeWindy]

I don't know but I wish they would have flown yesterday as Ike bombed.

940-ish. Is this a NOAA flight? How much will this help with guidance?

[Special K]

Wow! woke up this morning and we are getting noodled by the models in South Florida. If the governor issues a state of emergency ahead of any NHC watches, this place is going to be crazy. Our local Home Depot was running low on stuff last night, so I know people are on guard as they should be.

[KWT]

Looks Ike has started a slight south of west motion, it looks more than it is however as the northern part of the eye looks like its clouded over, I think 110kts is a pretty decent estimate right now given the currewnt structure but still looks pretty solid.

[gtsmith]

Can anyone get a loop that has imagery later that 0745UTC from the SSD site? The still images have a time stamp now of 0945...but the loops still load with 0745 as latest....

never mind...i had tweaked my Java settings and it would not update the loops...reset the settings and it's seems to be fine...that'll teach me to not take the advice to increase java performance on a windows PC as the link on the SSD site explains...

[gtsmith]

Wow! woke up this morning and we are getting noodled by the models in South Florida. If the governor issues a state of emergency ahead of any NHC watches, this place is going to be crazy. Our local Home Depot was running low on stuff last night, so I know people are on guard as they should be.

Speciall K where are you? You dont have your location in your sig

[jinftl]

It would appear that unless he actually loses some latitude over the weekend, we may very well see Ike just gaining longitude through early monday. No doubt that will result in watches or warnings for parts of florida by that time, if not by late sunday...the bahamas quite a bit sooner....wouldn't rule out parts of cuba either.

Looks Ike has started a slight south of west motion, it looks more than it is however as the northern part of the eye looks like its clouded over, I think 110kts is a pretty decent estimate right now given the currewnt structure but still looks pretty solid.

[Special K]

Gtsmith. I'm in Palm Beach Gardens. Talking about the HD on Northlake. Thanks for the heads up. I will fix my signature.

[gtsmith]

just coming into view:

[gtsmith]

Gtsmith. I'm in Palm Beach Gardens. Talking about the HD on Northlake. Thanks for the heads up. I will fix my signature.

thanks Special K...i heard HDs stock went up in off hours trading

[Lowpressure]

It will very nice to have recon in there later today. It will help with the details that will become very important down the road.

[KWT]

jinftl, possibly but even thats not so sure anymore, some models have it simply bypassing the trough as it doesn't dig down enough. Its going to be very much a case of wait and see with this situation I feel.

The Bahamas really needs to watch this even closer because obviously the current NHC track has this as a major hurricane trakcing through the region.

Vis imagery shows that Ike's eye has closed and has clouded over pretty much totally, looksl ike the shear is having an effect now.

[Sabanic]

11:00 pm 26.0 and 80.0 110K as it goes inland
5:00 am 26.0 and 81.0 115K as it goes inland

more west

Extrapolating the 4 day out track at this point would concern me, the NHC did very well from 4 days out for both Fay and Gustav.. still have time but its not getting any better for SFL

80.0 to 81.0 W would be moving straight across S FL right into the GOM wouldn't it?

[jinftl]

so really a southerly shift would seem more likely than a northerly shift in track as of now?

also, i am reading the forecast right...isn't 115kt as NHC currently has on south florida coast a Cat 4?

jinftl, possibly but even thats not so sure anymore, some models have it simply bypassing the trough as it doesn't dig down enough. Its going to be very much a case of wait and see with this situation I feel.

The Bahamas really needs to watch this even closer because obviously the current NHC track has this as a major hurricane trakcing through the region.

Vis imagery shows that Ike's eye has closed and has clouded over pretty much totally, looksl ike the shear is having an effect now.

[KWT]

Yep 115kts is a low end cat-4 I believe. In terms of track adjustments, I'm not sure yet but the models are trending further west and the trend is often your friend, things can change but the models are starting to get a better grip upstream now as events should be occuring in real time upstream.

[StJoe]

so really a southerly shift would seem more likely than a northerly shift in track as of now?

also, i am reading the forecast right...isn't 115kt as NHC currently has on south florida coast a Cat 4?

jinftl, possibly but even thats not so sure anymore, some models have it simply bypassing the trough as it doesn't dig down enough. Its going to be very much a case of wait and see with this situation I feel.

The Bahamas really needs to watch this even closer because obviously the current NHC track has this as a major hurricane trakcing through the region.

Vis imagery shows that Ike's eye has closed and has clouded over pretty much totally, looksl ike the shear is having an effect now.

Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr).

[Special K]

The models as friends. Well, we don't need friends like that!