ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Stratosphere747]

[ROCK]

A curve to the NE then heads due west (GFDL). If that's the case, 3 states (coastal areas) will have to evacuate.

I aint going anywhere.....learned my lesson...

Rock did you evacuate for Rita.

yeah 18hrs to no where with 3 puking cats in my backseat and a wife who divorced me 3 times during the journey of 25 miles....got home in 30 minutes...

[shah8]

00z GFDL *is* a bit east of the 18z forcast, with more time near water. Yes, the 06z would be the one to watch, but then, we'd know roughly 24hrs after the 06z what happens, so it's not that useful.

[cape_escape]

No Trough! We hate the trough! Go away trough!

I think I'll jump on this bandwagon...

[TampaFl]

2:00am postion - Starting to move west now, is this a wooble or a trend? Time will tell.

[srainhoutx]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.3 70.2 250./12.0
6 21.0 71.4 255./12.1
12 20.8 72.6 263./10.7
18 21.0 73.7 280./10.8
24 21.0 74.8 269./10.2
30 21.1 75.9 273./10.4
36 21.5 76.9 293./ 9.7
42 22.0 78.2 292./13.6
48 22.2 79.5 278./12.3
54 22.5 80.5 288./ 9.8
60 23.1 81.5 304./10.8
66 23.6 82.3 299./ 8.6
72 24.2 82.9 315./ 8.1
78 24.9 83.5 317./ 8.9
84 25.5 84.2 311./ 8.7
90 25.9 84.8 305./ 6.6
96 26.2 85.1 323./ 4.6
102 26.6 85.5 313./ 5.5
108 27.0 85.9 310./ 4.9
114 27.2 86.5 292./ 5.3
120 27.2 87.1 275./ 5.3
126 27.3 87.8 274./ 6.6

Hmmm

[ROCK]

now that is ugly....

[stormchazer]

Wobble I bet. Intense hurricanes wobble a lot, pinwheeling around the intense eye.

[Clint_TX]

Slow forward speed in the gulf is a sucky situation....powerful storm

[ROCK]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.3 70.2 250./12.0
6 21.0 71.4 255./12.1
12 20.8 72.6 263./10.7
18 21.0 73.7 280./10.8
24 21.0 74.8 269./10.2
30 21.1 75.9 273./10.4
36 21.5 76.9 293./ 9.7
42 22.0 78.2 292./13.6
48 22.2 79.5 278./12.3
54 22.5 80.5 288./ 9.8
60 23.1 81.5 304./10.8
66 23.6 82.3 299./ 8.6
72 24.2 82.9 315./ 8.1
78 24.9 83.5 317./ 8.9
84 25.5 84.2 311./ 8.7
90 25.9 84.8 305./ 6.6
96 26.2 85.1 323./ 4.6
102 26.6 85.5 313./ 5.5
108 27.0 85.9 310./ 4.9
114 27.2 86.5 292./ 5.3
120 27.2 87.1 275./ 5.3
126 27.3 87.8 274./ 6.6

Hmmm

hmmm...what?..... and you should be in bed....

[haml8]

00Z GFS http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

uh.. no thanks,

[shah8]

Heh, the HWRF 00z is still rather strong, but no hypercane--largely because it was engaged in a project called:
Fidel Must Die.

[perk]

Rock it took my neighbor 24 hours to get to Dallas, he was only at their hotel a couple of hours when my wife called him with the all clear.

[haml8]

ROC, what do you think of the 00Z GFS run?

[perk]

00Z GFS http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

uh.. no thanks,

That's one ugly run.

[Wx_Warrior]

It looks as if GFDL and HWRF copied off of each other's test.

[srainhoutx]

Doing my old neighbors a favor tonight in Key West. Up for RECON. I'll sleep tomorrow when I know they have left on the long journey up US 1.

[HouTXmetro]

It took my mom 6 hours to go from Pasadena to Baytown. She turned around afterwards.

[haml8]

It looks as if GFDL and HWRF copied off of each other's test.

I was thinking the same thing... they do look similar..

[ROCK]

ROC, what do you think of the 00Z GFS run?

not much....first run showing this solution....I dont bite on one run...