ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Windtalker1]

Does SE Fl seem to be pretty much out of the woods at this time if things don't change drastically?

Given your qualification about if things don't change drastically; the answer would be YES.

And I am glad that it is.

Thats a bold statement especially since S Fl is in the cone and we all know what Fay did according to the mods. I would say if its past you lad, then your in the all clear but not until then

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

So does it look like FOR NOW it won't be taking the route with the most land interaction (over Hispaniola and then horizontally over Cuba) and will only be clipping some parts of Cuba?

According to the NHC's track it will be over Cuba from 2pm Wednesday to 2pm Saturday but that will likely change at 11pm tonight.

[twister]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

The wrap around shows up well on this sat imagery.

[wzrgirl1]

SE is not out of the woods yet...not even close....let's not give any false hopes please......(although i hope down the road it will be)

[CrazyC83]

25/2345 UTC 16.0N 71.0W T3.5/3.5 GUSTAV -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Looks like Hurricane Gustav 2.0

[tolakram]

I think Gustav has stopped moving. Illusion?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[SouthFLTropics]

SE is not out of the woods yet...not even close....let's not give any false hopes please......(although i hope down the road it will be)

Definitely don't let your guard down...Things can and do change "drastically". For example...In 2004 after taking a direct hit from Frances here in Port St. Lucie I thought that we had paid our dues and our season would be over. Then Jeanne came along. And she left the coast of Hispanola and started going North, well offshore of FL. When she got North of us I would have bet dollars to donuts that she was on her way to the Tropical Cyclone graveyard of the North Atlantic. Then she fooled us all and gave us a spanking in the exact same spot Frances did three weeks earlier. Now I don't count anything out until it is obviously dying...I'm always on the lookout for Wxman57 to bring Bones out of the box...

SFT

[cpdaman]

upper level divergence not that great right now

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

[wzrgirl1]

as long as we are in the cone....i noticed that the nhc had a track well east and north of the models and that maybe they saw something before the models did....then now i am noticing that some of the models that were going into central america have now shifted further north and east since the last run....so i am not understanding all of this talk about the track shifting further west....what am i missing?

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Well everything hinges on how much the ridging over Florida and the GOM that is building in holds. Currently you can see the center of the mid-level High rotating near the SE GOM. Then there is a trough digging down NNE of Gustav. Gustav is happily taking the middle-of-the-road and heading NW. But I do think it is already starting to feel the blocking ridge.

You can see all of this here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

But you'll notice that a front is dropping down through Texas towards the NW GOM tonight. You can see it digging down in that link above. Now using this link, you can see the Eastern CONUS. First you'll notice Fay swirling NE in the SE US. Then in the Great Lakes, I see some kind of trough or something digging fast SSE. The question is how much will Fay allow the weakness to dive southward and erode ridging across the GOM and Florida?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

What does this all mean? I'm not sure how much ridging is going to last across FL and the GOM...in fact it hasn't lasted all that often this entire summer. I do think undoubtedly Gustav is going to have to make a turn northward but not sure where yet and some of the models very-well could be overreacting to the ridging.

[93superstorm]

Continues to bubble up

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

At all levels the ridge to the north is strengthing. If this can get another .5 degree to the west it likely won't move any more or very little more north. As you can see 3 hours ago the high was much weaker with the trough/weakness clear, now it has moved to the east. I don't expect the eye to make a direct landfall on Hati, it will come close. Then a westward movement.

[HURAKAN]

[Bocadude85]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

At all levels the ridge to the north is strengthing. If this can get another .5 degree to the west it likely won't move any more or very little more north. As you can see 3 hours ago the high was much weaker with the trough/weakness clear, now it has moved to the east. I don't expect the eye to make a direct landfall on Hati, it will come close. Then a westward movement.

The High cant be building to quickly considering pressures have been holding steady or slightly falling on the SE FL coast.... if the high was building the pressure should be rising... just a observation.

[cycloneye]

Look what Gustav will be tracking thru,very warm waters that will fuel it.

[Dean4Storms]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Well everything hinges on how much the ridging over Florida and the GOM that is building in holds. Currently you can see the center of the mid-level High rotating near the SE GOM. Then there is a trough digging down NNE of Gustav. Gustav is happily taking the middle-of-the-road and heading NW. But I do think it is already starting to feel the blocking ridge.

You can see all of this here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

But you'll notice that a front is dropping down through Texas towards the NW GOM tonight. You can see it digging down in that link above. Now using this link, you can see the Eastern CONUS. First you'll notice Fay swirling NE in the SE US. Then in the Great Lakes, I see some kind of trough or something digging fast SSE. The question is how much will Fay allow the weakness to dive southward and erode ridging across the GOM and Florida?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

What does this all mean? I'm not sure how much ridging is going to last across FL and the GOM...in fact it hasn't lasted all that often this entire summer. I do think undoubtedly Gustav is going to have to make a turn northward but not sure where yet and some of the models very-well could be overreacting to the ridging.

Very good points GC. The strength and positioning of that ridge holds all the marbles on Gustav come the weekend, for now though it looks to be a more western mover.

[txwatcher91]

Look what Gustav will be tracking thru,very warm waters that will fuel it.

And more importantly the extremely high TCHP in the western Caribbean sea.

[fci]

Does SE Fl seem to be pretty much out of the woods at this time if things don't change drastically?

Given your qualification about if things don't change drastically; the answer would be YES.

And I am glad that it is.

Thats a bold statement especially since S Fl is in the cone and we all know what Fay did according to the mods. I would say if its past you lad, then your in the all clear but not until then

SE is not out of the woods yet...not even close....let's not give any false hopes please......(although i hope down the road it will be)

SE is not out of the woods yet...not even close....let's not give any false hopes please......(although i hope down the road it will be)

Definitely don't let your guard down...Things can and do change "drastically". For example...In 2004 after taking a direct hit from Frances here in Port St. Lucie I thought that we had paid our dues and our season would be over. Then Jeanne came along. And she left the coast of Hispanola and started going North, well offshore of FL. When she got North of us I would have bet dollars to donuts that she was on her way to the Tropical Cyclone graveyard of the North Atlantic. Then she fooled us all and gave us a spanking in the exact same spot Frances did three weeks earlier. Now I don't count anything out until it is obviously dying...I'm always on the lookout for Wxman57 to bring Bones out of the box...

SFT

Folks:
READ my answer again.
I said that unless things changed South Florida is in the clear.
How can that be criticised or argued with???

Did say that we are in the clear?-----------No
Did I give FALSE hopes?---------------No
Is my statement BOLD?-----------No.

Come on folks, save the criticism for when someone makes a statement with qualifying the answer first.

My post was not the least bit irresponsible.

SHEESH!!!!

[gatorcane]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

At all levels the ridge to the north is strengthing. If this can get another .5 degree to the west it likely won't move any more or very little more north. As you can see 3 hours ago the high was much weaker with the trough/weakness clear, now it has moved to the east. I don't expect the eye to make a direct landfall on Hati, it will come close. Then a westward movement.

The High cant be building to quickly considering pressures have been holding steady or slightly falling on the SE FL coast.... if the high was building the pressure should be rising... just a observation.

Pressures are around 29.91 and rising slowly along the SE Coast of FL, winds are light but generally from the South -- not exactly a sign of strong ridging just yet. Pops generally drifted towards the East Coast Metro areas today, again, a sign of very weak Western Atlantic ridging. It's the same pattern we have seen all summer, SW to NE flow, but its definitely starting to come around to the South and Southeast....

Also lets give FCI a break please, he said nothing wrong in my opinion.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/observations.php