ATL: IKE Discussion

[Storm Contractor]

It seems to my novice eyes that Hannah or what is left of her center is well west of the forecast point. Is that because the ridge is pushing her more than expected? Also since I have to leave my condo in PC to head to South Florida to shutter up my house which will NEVER sell now, what are the early indications of a Fl panhandle impact in the Panama City area? Thanks!

[JPmia]

WOW, I'm in denial looking at those models and preparing at the same time. I guess the only thing anyone has going for them in Florida is that the size of the storm (diameter) is small (ala Andrew) and it will not impact such a large area, unless it goes up the spine of the peninsula. Here's hoping the forecast tracks goes further south.

Guess my idea for a turn to the north might not pan out.

[jinftl]

A track to our south may be more realistic as of this moment as a saving grace.

WOW, I'm in denial looking at those models and preparing at the same time. I guess the only thing anyone has going for them in Florida is that the size of the storm (diameter) is small (ala Andrew) and it will not impact such a large area, unless it goes up the spine of the peninsula. Here's hoping the forecast tracks goes further south.

Guess my idea for a turn to the north might not pan out.

[jlauderdal]

Wow! woke up this morning and we are getting noodled by the models in South Florida. If the governor issues a state of emergency ahead of any NHC watches, this place is going to be crazy. Our local Home Depot was running low on stuff last night, so I know people are on guard as they should be.

people are taking this one seriously in sofla, no fooling around with ike like some of the past storms, even if that track doesn't hold up people at least oe on full alert

[jinftl]

With current forecast showing a Cat 4 making landfall in not much more than 100 hours....well...nuff said

Wow! woke up this morning and we are getting noodled by the models in South Florida. If the governor issues a state of emergency ahead of any NHC watches, this place is going to be crazy. Our local Home Depot was running low on stuff last night, so I know people are on guard as they should be.

people are taking this one seriously in sofla, no fooling around with ike like some of the past storms, even if that track doesn't hold up people at least oe on full alert

[Myersgirl]

In the past, the center of the 5 day cone was generally a safe place to be, but this year they seem to have been getting more accurate on the 5 day

[Sirius LeWindy]

So this is what we will probably be dealing with here in SoFla early next week...

Category Four Hurricane:

More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles

While the appreciating, enthusiastic, can't wait to see what Ike can do part of me is in full blown high throttle, the oh crap, what can possibly happen to my house, blah,blah,blah...is really in denial mode. Been through Frances, Jeanne, Wilma...I think Ike is a whole different beast.

J~

http://www.katrinadestruction.com/image ... 990d21baef

Let's hope this is not any of our neighborhoods.

[Storm Contractor]

Look at the supported pressures on the possible approach houte. If the upper level conditions are good, and the is no land interaction with Cuba, this could get stronger on approach!

[Sabanic]

In the past, the center of the 5 day cone was generally a safe place to be, but this year they seem to have been getting more accurate on the 5 day

They sure have, and their 3-day forecasts have been extremely accurate so far.

[KWT]

For those worrying in S.Florida, take a look at the cone, we are still at the stage wheere this could yet turn out to sea (though thats looking somewhat less likely now...) and equally its possible that it could well slam into Cuba if Ike loses enough latitude on its WSW dive. Still too early to know either way...

However for those in the Turks and Caicos as well as surronding islands I'd be ready for what probably will be a major hurricane tracking very close by in aobut 48-72hrs time.

[Frank P]

11:00 pm 26.0 and 80.0 110K as it goes inland
5:00 am 26.0 and 81.0 115K as it goes inland

more west

Extrapolating the 4 day out track at this point would concern me, the NHC did very well from 4 days out for both Fay and Gustav.. still have time but its not getting any better for SFL

80.0 to 81.0 W would be moving straight across S FL right into the GOM wouldn't it?

It would be moving in a NW direction, look at the 5 day plot path, would appear to be heading towards the GOM but how far into the GOM is up for debate.. not sure how and if a recurve would affect points beyond.. could go GOM, or up the west or east coast of FL or thru FL or back out to sea after hitting FL.. I have no idea... certainly the trend west is not good for anyone in FL or GOM.. we need to see some more recurving models and soon

my unprofessional opinion not endorsed by anyone... even me.. fwiw...

[jinftl]

agree..but with current landfall forecast sometime on tuesday...we are approaching being in the 4-day part of the cone....margin of error starts to shrink as hours till landfall go down.

In the past, the center of the 5 day cone was generally a safe place to be, but this year they seem to have been getting more accurate on the 5 day

[robag]

As a longtime lurker, I only log on when a storm is threatening the Upper Keys. That being said, I am feeling a tad bit pessimistic about the chances of Key Largo being adversely affected by Ike. I will be giving storm conditions here as long as the power holds out next week and of course if I don't evacuate. I am located at 25 degrees and 80 degrees. Best of luck to all of you.

[KWT]

Expect the NHC to slightly flatten out the track in the next advisory between 96-120hrs.

Anyway Ike looking weaker now, I'd guess 105kts, the eye is totally covered with cloud and the northern eyewall looks like its weakening as well now.

[jlauderdal]

In the past, the center of the 5 day cone was generally a safe place to be, but this year they seem to have been getting more accurate on the 5 day

They sure have, and their 3-day forecasts have been extremely accurate so far.

please give us a report on the good doctors broadcast this morning on the sports station

[loxahatchee13]

I know not to focus on the center line and to allow for shifting but if Ike made landfall where the NHC has the forcasted point at thiis time does anyone know what the possible effects would be in Palm Beach County?

[KWT]

loxahatchee13, far too early yet to know that, as I've got a sneaky feeling the track may be shifted just a touch further south on the next advisory if the GFDL and HWRF hold to the more southerly route which no doubt they will.

[KWT]

I think they only just find a major if the eye doesn't improve and pressure in the eye 950s/high 940s.

[Special K]

The effects on PBC would depend on the size of wind field. We will have a better handle on that when they start flying planes in for analysis. The larger it grows in spacial size, the greater the effects for PBC if it makes landfall in Miami-Dade County.

[Meso]

Eye has closed up, but better overall outflow on the North Western quadrant? Unless I am mistaken.. I wonder if it's doing something like it did early this morning where the eye clouded over for a few hours then came back... Not likely that it's an ERC is it... It has gone on quite a while now as a strong hurricane without one occuring