ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Stratosphere747]

I think my fellow Texans should step back a take a breath. There is every chance that there will be some significant shifts in the upcoming days.

In the short term there are some critical benchmarks on where Ike crosses Cuba that will have longer term implications to a wide swath of the GOM.

[Clint_TX]

00Z GFS http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

uh.. no thanks,

That's one ugly run.

I'm an old salt at this stuff and my early warning system is going off in a big way on Ike...damn steering is breaking down after is leaves Cuba and the high is building in...except its September and the darn High isn't gonna drive it into Mexico...yucky!

[HouTXmetro]

I think my fellow Texans should step back a take a breath. There is every chance that there will be some significant shifts in the upcoming days.

In the short term there are some critical benchmarks on where Ike crosses Cuba that will have longer term implications to a wide swath of the GOM.

I agree, but the NHC sounded very confident about their 5 day forecast. The question is what happens next.

[srainhoutx]

I think my fellow Texans should step back a take a breath. There is every chance that there will be some significant shifts in the upcoming days.

In the short term there are some critical benchmarks on where Ike crosses Cuba that will have longer term implications to a wide swath of the GOM.

Agreed.

[ROCK]

I think my fellow Texans should step back a take a breath. There is every chance that there will be some significant shifts in the upcoming days.

In the short term there are some critical benchmarks on where Ike crosses Cuba that will have longer term implications to a wide swath of the GOM.

I agree....but please dont show me a cross section of Ike at 940MB again......

[haml8]

Understood, and our first thoughts are with the folks in the Keys, Turks and Cacos (Cuba too). As this is weather and unpredictable.

On a side note, it is interesting to discuss the future possibilities of the storm without hype.

There is percieved hype becuase the few of us on here posting often are from TX. Guilt by association I suppose.. anyway back to IKE..

[Stormcenter]

I think my fellow Texans should step back a take a breath. There is every chance that there will be some significant shifts in the upcoming days.

In the short term there are some critical benchmarks on where Ike crosses Cuba that will have longer term implications to a wide swath of the GOM.

I guess this is the same way La. posters felt when Gustav was pointed their way 6 days out. I'm a little concerned.

[HouTXmetro]

I think my fellow Texans should step back a take a breath. There is every chance that there will be some significant shifts in the upcoming days.

In the short term there are some critical benchmarks on where Ike crosses Cuba that will have longer term implications to a wide swath of the GOM.

I guess this is the same way La. posters felt when Gustav was pointed their way 6 days out. I'm a little concerned.

The black line isn't over us yet so I wouldn't worry yet.

[perk]

I think my fellow Texans should step back a take a breath. There is every chance that there will be some significant shifts in the upcoming days.

In the short term there are some critical benchmarks on where Ike crosses Cuba that will have longer term implications to a wide swath of the GOM.

Strat we understand that Ike's 7 days out, and we're quite aware of what can happen in that lenght of time, and i assure you no one's getting as cared away as you might think.

[Stratosphere747]

I think my fellow Texans should step back a take a breath. There is every chance that there will be some significant shifts in the upcoming days.

In the short term there are some critical benchmarks on where Ike crosses Cuba that will have longer term implications to a wide swath of the GOM.

Strat we understand that Ike's 7 days out, and we're quite aware of what can happen in that lenght of time, and i assure you no one's getting as cared away as you might think.

*lol*

[haml8]

Is this the right steering layer we should be looking at?




Site:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

[HurricaneQueen]

Rock:


What is this shortwave you speak of several pages back. Where is it now and what are its overall implications?

Thanks,
Lynn

[ROCK]

Rock:


What is this shortwave you speak of several pages back. Where is it now and what are its overall implications?

Thanks,
Lynn

Lynn, all of the guidance I have seen so far drops the trof down around the 54hr mark but not enough to snag Ike. What it does do is weaken the ridge enough to pull Ike NW to N into the central / East GOM. From there Ike slows in weak steering currents as the high builds thus moving him West at 126hr.....after that another pac trof will be dropping down but remains to seen what impact that might have as Ike will pretty close to SWLA to Texas...somewhere in there....if this trof misses Ike then MX might be a more viable solution as the high builds again...


clear as mud?

[Stratosphere747]

233
WHXX01 KWBC 070642
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0642 UTC SUN SEP 7 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE (AL092008) 20080907 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080907 0600 080907 1800 080908 0600 080908 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 71.6W 21.5N 74.3W 21.7N 77.0W 22.1N 79.6W
BAMD 21.2N 71.6W 20.9N 73.8W 21.0N 75.8W 21.6N 77.9W
BAMM 21.2N 71.6W 21.1N 74.0W 21.1N 76.2W 21.7N 78.4W
LBAR 21.2N 71.6W 21.0N 74.2W 21.1N 77.1W 21.3N 80.0W
SHIP 115KTS 118KTS 123KTS 127KTS
DSHP 115KTS 118KTS 88KTS 70KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080909 0600 080910 0600 080911 0600 080912 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.7N 81.9W 24.1N 85.7W 25.3N 89.0W 26.1N 92.5W
BAMD 22.6N 80.0W 24.9N 84.1W 26.2N 87.1W 26.2N 90.9W
BAMM 22.5N 80.5W 24.6N 84.8W 25.4N 88.4W 25.2N 91.7W
LBAR 21.9N 82.7W 23.4N 87.0W 24.6N 90.4W 25.9N 91.8W
SHIP 124KTS 119KTS 113KTS 100KTS
DSHP 49KTS 41KTS 35KTS 22KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.2N LONCUR = 71.6W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 21.5N LONM12 = 69.1W DIRM12 = 255DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 22.5N LONM24 = 66.4W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 947MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 125NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 100NM

$$
NNNN

[physicx07]

Is this the right steering layer we should be looking at?




Site:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

No, you should look at this one. This one is appropriate for the current pressure of 947mb

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

[HouTXmetro]

Is that a particular model or the NHC's latest forecast?

[HurricaneQueen]

Rock:


What is this shortwave you speak of several pages back. Where is it now and what are its overall implications?

Thanks,
Lynn

Lynn, all of the guidance I have seen so far drops the trof down around the 54hr mark but not enough to snag Ike. What it does do is weaken the ridge enough to pull Ike NW to N into the central / East GOM. From there Ike slows in weak steering currents as the high builds thus moving him West at 126hr.....after that another pac trof will be dropping down but remains to seen what impact that might have as Ike will pretty close to SWLA to Texas...somewhere in there....if this trof misses Ike then MX might be a more viable solution as the high builds again...


clear as mud?

Thanks. That was a big help!!!

[zaqxsw75050]

I think my fellow Texans should step back a take a breath. There is every chance that there will be some significant shifts in the upcoming days.

In the short term there are some critical benchmarks on where Ike crosses Cuba that will have longer term implications to a wide swath of the GOM.

If the 0z euro verify, you can chase with Josh in your backyard

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO ugly for Texas...especially Central Tex.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090700!!/

[Stormcenter]

I think my fellow Texans should step back a take a breath. There is every chance that there will be some significant shifts in the upcoming days.

In the short term there are some critical benchmarks on where Ike crosses Cuba that will have longer term implications to a wide swath of the GOM.

If the 0z euro verify, you can chase with Josh in your backyard

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/