ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Portastorm]

But you'll notice that a front is dropping down through Texas towards the NW GOM tonight. You can see it digging down in that link above. Now using this link, you can see the Eastern CONUS. First you'll notice Fay swirling NE in the SE US. Then in the Great Lakes, I see some kind of trough or something digging fast SSE. The question is how much will Fay allow the weakness to dive southward and erode ridging across the GOM and Florida?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Hate to shoot holes in your analysis here but there is no front dropping down through Texas. What you are seeing, in fact, is high pressure building southward into the state and drying out the atmosphere from moisture from Fay as well as a pesky upper low in northeastern Mexico. So you actually are not seeing any ridge in the WGOM eroding but actually building.

[LSU2001]

Just watched Bob Breck in NOLA and I am kinda miffed.
He stressed "many days to watch it" he is "not concerned till it hits the gulf" and stressed over and over many days to watch. Now I know it is not a given that Gus will ever hit the gulf but calling about 4 days "many days" is IMO irresponsible. I know alot of my coworkers catch a quick news clip and say Oh we don't have to worry or watch it we have lots of time. I guess I am just too sensitive after his huge bust of Katrina.
Anyway rant over.
Tim

[TSmith274]

That's just the way ole Bob Breck is these days. Once his coveted Vipir confirms, he'll sound the alarm.

[gatorcane]

But you'll notice that a front is dropping down through Texas towards the NW GOM tonight. You can see it digging down in that link above. Now using this link, you can see the Eastern CONUS. First you'll notice Fay swirling NE in the SE US. Then in the Great Lakes, I see some kind of trough or something digging fast SSE. The question is how much will Fay allow the weakness to dive southward and erode ridging across the GOM and Florida?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Hate to shoot holes in your analysis here but there is no front dropping down through Texas. What you are seeing, in fact, is high pressure building southward into the state and drying out the atmosphere from moisture from Fay as well as a pesky upper low in northeastern Mexico. So you actually are not seeing any ridge in the WGOM eroding but actually building.

If you click the "NWS Fronts" box in that loop you will see a "cold" front moving southeastward over Texas.

[LSU2001]

But you'll notice that a front is dropping down through Texas towards the NW GOM tonight. You can see it digging down in that link above. Now using this link, you can see the Eastern CONUS. First you'll notice Fay swirling NE in the SE US. Then in the Great Lakes, I see some kind of trough or something digging fast SSE. The question is how much will Fay allow the weakness to dive southward and erode ridging across the GOM and Florida?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Hate to shoot holes in your analysis here but there is no front dropping down through Texas. What you are seeing, in fact, is high pressure building southward into the state and drying out the atmosphere from moisture from Fay as well as a pesky upper low in northeastern Mexico. So you actually are not seeing any ridge in the WGOM eroding but actually building.

If thats the case then the interaction of the building high over FLA and Tx with the weakness left behind from Fay should be the prime steering mechanisms for Gus or am I missing the boat on this guess??
Tim

[SouthFLTropics]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

At all levels the ridge to the north is strengthing. If this can get another .5 degree to the west it likely won't move any more or very little more north. As you can see 3 hours ago the high was much weaker with the trough/weakness clear, now it has moved to the east. I don't expect the eye to make a direct landfall on Hati, it will come close. Then a westward movement.

The High cant be building to quickly considering pressures have been holding steady or slightly falling on the SE FL coast.... if the high was building the pressure should be rising... just a observation.

Pressures are around 29.91 and rising slowly along the SE Coast of FL, winds are light but generally from the South -- not exactly a sign of strong ridging just yet. Pops generally drifted towards the East Coast Metro areas today, again, a sign of very weak Western Atlantic ridging. It's the same pattern we have seen all summer, SW to NE flow, but its definitely starting to come around to the South and Southeast....

Also lets give FCI a break please, he said nothing wrong in my opinion.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/observations.php

I'm with you Gatorcane...I'm all for giving FCI a break and I didn't mean to ruffle his feathers at all...Sorry FCI!!!

BTW...GO GATORS!!!

SFT

[LSU2001]

But you'll notice that a front is dropping down through Texas towards the NW GOM tonight. You can see it digging down in that link above. Now using this link, you can see the Eastern CONUS. First you'll notice Fay swirling NE in the SE US. Then in the Great Lakes, I see some kind of trough or something digging fast SSE. The question is how much will Fay allow the weakness to dive southward and erode ridging across the GOM and Florida?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Hate to shoot holes in your analysis here but there is no front dropping down through Texas. What you are seeing, in fact, is high pressure building southward into the state and drying out the atmosphere from moisture from Fay as well as a pesky upper low in northeastern Mexico. So you actually are not seeing any ridge in the WGOM eroding but actually building.

If you click the "NWS Fronts" box in that loop you will see a "cold" front moving southeastward over Texas.

Yeah, but with a double barrel high behind the front or am I misreading it?
Tim

[Dean4Storms]

Just watched Bob Breck in NOLA and I am kinda miffed.
He stressed "many days to watch it" he is "not concerned till it hits the gulf" and stressed over and over many days to watch. Now I know it is not a given that Gus will ever hit the gulf but calling about 4 days "many days" is IMO irresponsible. I know alot of my coworkers catch a quick news clip and say Oh we don't have to worry or watch it we have lots of time. I guess I am just too sensitive after his huge bust of Katrina.
Anyway rant over.
Tim

Well he kind of has a point. Gus is still at least a week away from the upper Gulf coast if it came this way and the models haven't nailed anything down yet so its best to give it a few days before ramping up any strayed nerves IMO.

[gatorcane]

No there is a high, in fact I just checked the NWS Fronts overlay and the front has just been removed, hence indicating it is washing out.

[cheezyWXguy]

But you'll notice that a front is dropping down through Texas towards the NW GOM tonight. You can see it digging down in that link above. Now using this link, you can see the Eastern CONUS. First you'll notice Fay swirling NE in the SE US. Then in the Great Lakes, I see some kind of trough or something digging fast SSE. The question is how much will Fay allow the weakness to dive southward and erode ridging across the GOM and Florida?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Hate to shoot holes in your analysis here but there is no front dropping down through Texas. What you are seeing, in fact, is high pressure building southward into the state and drying out the atmosphere from moisture from Fay as well as a pesky upper low in northeastern Mexico. So you actually are not seeing any ridge in the WGOM eroding but actually building.

If you click the "NWS Fronts" box in that loop you will see a "cold" front moving southeastward over Texas.

Nope it is most certainly NOT moving. It is stalled over the red river and its so weak it cant get anything more than a few isolated showers to form on it. This is just supposed to sit there till it dies out and will not create any weakness at all.

[ROCK]

But you'll notice that a front is dropping down through Texas towards the NW GOM tonight. You can see it digging down in that link above. Now using this link, you can see the Eastern CONUS. First you'll notice Fay swirling NE in the SE US. Then in the Great Lakes, I see some kind of trough or something digging fast SSE. The question is how much will Fay allow the weakness to dive southward and erode ridging across the GOM and Florida?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Hate to shoot holes in your analysis here but there is no front dropping down through Texas. What you are seeing, in fact, is high pressure building southward into the state and drying out the atmosphere from moisture from Fay as well as a pesky upper low in northeastern Mexico. So you actually are not seeing any ridge in the WGOM eroding but actually building.

If you click the "NWS Fronts" box in that loop you will see a "cold" front moving southeastward over Texas.

no cold front Gator....Porta is right....building high....

[Portastorm]

The dotted yellow line signifies an upper level trough extending west from Fay's remnants. Trust me, there is no front dropping down in Texas. No change in dew points. Nothing.

[Patrick99]

well, he's right, I think. There's no need for *anyone* to get into a panic right now.

[Recurve]

Agreed. No need to jump on fci. And don't be so defensive bro.

This has much less of a SFla smell than if it were farther north now or if the high ended farther east. AFAIK now, it would have to become very strong (increased beta) and catch all the northward steering for it to get to even the Lower Keys. Could be wrong, wouldn't be the first time, but in terms of more or less likely, I see SE Fla as less likely.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Stormcenter]

Just watched Bob Breck in NOLA and I am kinda miffed.
He stressed "many days to watch it" he is "not concerned till it hits the gulf" and stressed over and over many days to watch. Now I know it is not a given that Gus will ever hit the gulf but calling about 4 days "many days" is IMO irresponsible. I know alot of my coworkers catch a quick news clip and say Oh we don't have to worry or watch it we have lots of time. I guess I am just too sensitive after his huge bust of Katrina.
Anyway rant over.
Tim

I think that's what it is.....you're too sensitive.
Everyone needs to take a deep (again) breath and chill.
I think many are getting worked up over nothing right now
looking at the models and over analyzing them. All you
need to do is listen to the NHC and follow their advice.
Anyway you should already have your plans in place
anyway if you live anywhere along the Gulf
coast or Eastern Atlantic coast so there is really
not much anyone can but wait and see. I'm hoping
he just meets a painful death.

[wxman57]

Is it me or has Gustav really slowed down?

it's slowed down to a bit of a crawl over the last 2 hours

I measure about 10nm past 3 hours toward 302 deg. About 3-4 kts. Might be starting to feel the ridge to its northwest a bit early?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not much of a front, dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s behind it, and the winds are going light and Northeast behind it. I don't think that front will leave so much as just wash out.

[rockyman]

I'm on Dauphin Island (about 100 miles east of New Orleans)...my level of concern is increasing by the hour...I have a long trip planned for New Orleans this weekend...and I'll have to decide by Wednesday whether to cancel that trip and stay home to secure my house...Katrina wiped me out 3 years ago...my new house is supposedly up to the "150mph Code"...but I'm sure not looking forward to testing it

[Scorpion]

The only way this hits the Florida Peninsula is if a trough catches it.

[LSU2001]

Just watched Bob Breck in NOLA and I am kinda miffed.
He stressed "many days to watch it" he is "not concerned till it hits the gulf" and stressed over and over many days to watch. Now I know it is not a given that Gus will ever hit the gulf but calling about 4 days "many days" is IMO irresponsible. I know alot of my coworkers catch a quick news clip and say Oh we don't have to worry or watch it we have lots of time. I guess I am just too sensitive after his huge bust of Katrina.
Anyway rant over.
Tim

Well he kind of has a point. Gus is still at least a week away from the upper Gulf coast if it came this way and the models haven't nailed anything down yet so its best to give it a few days before ramping up any strayed nerves IMO.

I totally agree that we don't need the hype but saying many days till the gulf is not correct according to the models Gus should be around the Yuc. channel by Sat. now depending on forward speed that position could be two to three days from NC gulf. I live in the 72 hour evac. zone so conceivably I could be preparing to evac by Sunday. Not saying to freak out or anything but IMHO a TV met should stress the possibilities and urge caution and watchfulness, not make it seem that we have an inordinate amount of time.
Just my 2 cents,
Tim