ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Its hard to say Meso, could be the shear is playing a bigger role I'm not sure?

Looks like the track is a little more WSW then the NHC estimated though with the eye contracting its hard to say if thats a real motion or us getting faked out.

[jinftl]

excerpt From latest NHC Discussion:
THE EYE OF IKE HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS DEFINITION...AND CLOUD TOPS
OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME
DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY JUST RECEIVED FROM THE AMSR-E DOES NOT REVEAL ANY
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE...NOR DOES IT
DEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO RAPID WEAKENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE
NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL...AND GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM.

Eye has closed up, but better overall outflow on the North Western quadrant? Unless I am mistaken.. I wonder if it's doing something like it did early this morning where the eye clouded over for a few hours then came back... Not likely that it's an ERC is it... It has gone on quite a while now as a strong hurricane without one occuring

[HenkL]

NOAA plane should have departed some 3.5 hours ago ...

[KWT]

Ike's present apperence is really not all that impressive anymore, the inner core seems to be weakening, the eye is gone and seems like the eyewall is weakening on the northern side as well, heading roughly around 265.

[hiflyer]

Well well well...last day at my old job yesterday at Ft Lauderdale Airport...couple weeks start up at San Jose Airport...but get one last fling with Ike...grin. Good news I am 13 miles inland on the second floor with full shutters and a brand new fully inspected roof. Bad news...I am still in SoFla. Good news my local bar has just installed a natural gas powered generator that will run the whole place including ac and sat tv if the building holds together.

Now as a long time (25 year) resident of this area I was raised with always look at the Water Vapor loop...let it be your guide in the near time....which appears to show a s of track in the last few frames which would make me tend to lean towards the GFDL solution for the short term. With NGPS and others shifting westward over the last 24hrs the GFDL may be the rabbit in the greyhound race...a little too far left long term.

I was very disappointed that the NOAA49 G4 mission was dumped late on 9/4 and the next one will not be until Sat at 5am so that data will not get fully in until the 5am Sunday disco.

Last thought...I think we all understand that the NHC is drawing the cone and the path right over their heads...and they are fully aware what that is doing to SoFla residents as the sun comes up. As has been pointed out models go left and right with NHC Headquarters down the middle....and I think the NHC is correct in emphasizing this so as to motivate the population down here. However, right now I am more concerned about Monroe County...and I suspect those folks may pull the trigger fairly soon on evac as storm surge alone could overwhelm their low lying islands surrounded by extremely shallow waters.

[KWT]

I'm thinking the presentation has gone so downhill in the last few hours it could well be on its way to being downgraded to a cat-2. I'm starting to wonder whether what we seeing weren't the WSW motion but instead a burst of shear sending the convection southwards?

[cycloneye]

HenkL,that NOAA mission doesnt release obs?

[jinftl]

Would a short-term weakening trend...which to some extent is forecast by the NHC...result in more of westerly than wsw movement in the next day or 2 or the opposite?

[KWT]

Probably won't make much of a difference to the models as they are taking into account that Ike weakens, for example the GFDL weakens this to 975mbs!
So the track shouldn't really chance much.

[amanda]

wow... just woke up to a storm track that has shifted a lot further west! does anyone know why they are predicting it to be a 2 at landfall? is there shear all the way to the coast or are the water temps cooler? i know there is someone out there who knows... smarty pants.

[jinftl]

5am forecast calls for 115kt, or a Cat 4 at landfall.

wow... just woke up to a storm track that has shifted a lot further west! does anyone know why they are predicting it to be a 2 at landfall? is there shear all the way to the coast or are the water temps cooler? i know there is someone out there who knows... smarty pants.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to me that Ike is beginning to move more toward the WSW.

[amanda]

5am forecast calls for 115kt, or a Cat 4 at landfall.

wow... just woke up to a storm track that has shifted a lot further west! does anyone know why they are predicting it to be a 2 at landfall? is there shear all the way to the coast or are the water temps cooler? i know there is someone out there who knows... smarty pants.

oh ok. i think i was getting confused by the big 2 at the end of the 5 day official track. i wasn't paying attention to the fact that the 2 is actually inland.

[robbielyn]

what are the chances this could cross south fl and hit la or tx? like do a wilma or something?

[jinftl]

Gotcha...the max forecast strength prior to landfall...unless it skirts through the florida straits and doesn't 'touch' florida or even cuba....has been increased from a cat 3 (11pm thurs forecast) to a minimal cat 4 with 5am forecast....not a trend anyone likes.

The bahamas will have to deal with this before in major 'cane status as well.

5am forecast calls for 115kt, or a Cat 4 at landfall.

wow... just woke up to a storm track that has shifted a lot further west! does anyone know why they are predicting it to be a 2 at landfall? is there shear all the way to the coast or are the water temps cooler? i know there is someone out there who knows... smarty pants.

oh ok. i think i was getting confused by the big 2 at the end of the 5 day official track. i wasn't paying attention to the fact that the 2 is actually inland.

[Grease Monkey]

Looks to me that Ike is beginning to move more toward the WSW.

Could be just an illusion because of the shear hammering his northern half.

[jinftl]

storms have doe such a move....move from east to west either across the florida peninsula or through the florida straits....and effected the upper gulf.....1947 fort lauderdale hurricane, betsy, andrew, katrina, rita.....had general paths like that.

what are the chances this could cross south fl and hit la or tx? like do a wilma or something?

[amanda]

5am forecast calls for 115kt, or a Cat 4 at landfall.

wow... just woke up to a storm track that has shifted a lot further west! does anyone know why they are predicting it to be a 2 at landfall? is there shear all the way to the coast or are the water temps cooler? i know there is someone out there who knows... smarty pants.

oh ok. i think i was getting confused by the big 2 at the end of the 5 day official track. i wasn't paying attention to the fact that the 2 is actually inland.

in that case, if this track shifts just a bit further west and actually pans out, this is similar to what could happen according to TBO.com. not crying wolf and not making any predictions. ALOT can and will change in 5 days.

http://www.tbo.com/weather/hurricane/worstcase/

[jinftl]

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

THE EYE OF IKE HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS DEFINITION...AND CLOUD TOPS
OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME
DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY JUST RECEIVED FROM THE AMSR-E DOES NOT REVEAL ANY
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE...NOR DOES IT
DEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO RAPID WEAKENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE
NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL...AND GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO LESSEN BEYOND 24 HOURS...AS IKE
REMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS THEN
FORECAST. THE HWRF FORECASTS IKE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT DAYS
3-5..

Looks to me that Ike is beginning to move more toward the WSW.

Could be just an illusion because of the shear hammering his northern half.

[Grease Monkey]

But they have the tampa shield.