ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Stratosphere747]

I think my fellow Texans should step back a take a breath. There is every chance that there will be some significant shifts in the upcoming days.

In the short term there are some critical benchmarks on where Ike crosses Cuba that will have longer term implications to a wide swath of the GOM.

If the 0z euro verify, you can chase with Josh in your backyard

Sure wouldn't have to far to drive.

Still think we will see some pretty good shifts being this far out. Long few days ahead indeed.

[HouTXmetro]

Despite a strike on Central TX this run, This is great news for "Texas." Euro is north from MX earlier and showing NE afterlandfall. "If" this is the start of a trend we may very well see a recurve before TX. Bad news for Louisiana.

[Stormcenter]

Despite a strike on Central TX this run, This is great news for "Texas." Euro is north from MX earlier and showing NE afterlandfall. "If" this is the start of a trend we may very well see a recurve before TX. Bad news for Louisiana.

If Ike is going to recurve it will have to do it before it reaches 88 otherwise we are in deep you know what. IMO

[zaqxsw75050]

I think my fellow Texans should step back a take a breath. There is every chance that there will be some significant shifts in the upcoming days.

In the short term there are some critical benchmarks on where Ike crosses Cuba that will have longer term implications to a wide swath of the GOM.

If the 0z euro verify, you can chase with Josh in your backyard

Sure wouldn't have to far to drive.

Still think we will see some pretty good shifts being this far out. Long few days ahead indeed.

I agree. Besides track, intensity is very tricky thing to forecast too (land interaction with Cuba).

[HouTXmetro]

Despite a strike on Central TX this run, This is great news for "Texas." Euro is north from MX earlier and showing NE afterlandfall. "If" this is the start of a trend we may very well see a recurve before TX. Bad news for Louisiana.

If Ike is going to recurve it will have to do it before it reaches 88 otherwise we are in deep you know what. IMO

88? It has another 5 degress to recurve because Houston is at 92 right?

[Viper54r]

Despite a strike on Central TX this run, This is great news for "Texas." Euro is north from MX earlier and showing NE afterlandfall. "If" this is the start of a trend we may very well see a recurve before TX. Bad news for Louisiana.

If Ike is going to recurve it will have to do it before it reaches 88 otherwise we are in deep you know what. IMO

88? It has another 5 degress to recurve because Houston is at 92 right?

Yeah, NO is at 90 so I don't know why 88 is the magical cutoff for Texas

[attallaman]

Based upon tonight's model runs is the CGOM now in the clear? Is this now looking more like a TX/MX storm rather than a LA/MS storm? Could the models shift back my way? Hopefully they won't.

[physicx07]

Based upon tonight's model runs is the CGOM now in the clear? Is this now looking more like a TX/MX storm rather than a LA/MS storm? Could the models shift back my way? Hopefully they won't.

I think there's a lot riding on the trough that's supposed to be moving through the plains Thursday/Friday. The models have been undecided on whether or not it's strong enough to weaken the ridge. I get the impression from the models that if it does in fact break the ridge, then Ike, which will probably be in the middle of the gulf then, should tear up into LA/MS. Otherwise, LA/MS would probably be in the clear assuming Ike isn't just sitting still around that time, but moving west like I think it would be doing. I think the flipflopping is going to continue for a while and we won't have a better idea how strong the trough will be til about Monday/Tuesday when it can be analyzed.

[TSmith274]

It is amazing to me how lost the models are. Seriously. They change from run to run. Sure, you might get a few runs in a row that are consistent... but hell, that is a rarity with this storm.

[attallaman]

Based upon tonight's model runs is the CGOM now in the clear? Is this now looking more like a TX/MX storm rather than a LA/MS storm? Could the models shift back my way? Hopefully they won't.

I think there's a lot riding on the trough that's supposed to be moving through the plains Thursday/Friday. The models have been undecided on whether or not it's strong enough to weaken the ridge. I get the impression from the models that if it does in fact break the ridge, then Ike, which will probably be in the middle of the gulf then, should tear up into LA/MS. Otherwise, LA/MS would probably be in the clear assuming Ike isn't just sitting still around that time, but moving west like I think it would be doing.

So a building ridge of high pressure would be good for me here in MS but a trough of low pressure coming down from the north weakening the ridge of high pressure would not be so good for me, correct?

[physicx07]

Based upon tonight's model runs is the CGOM now in the clear? Is this now looking more like a TX/MX storm rather than a LA/MS storm? Could the models shift back my way? Hopefully they won't.

I think there's a lot riding on the trough that's supposed to be moving through the plains Thursday/Friday. The models have been undecided on whether or not it's strong enough to weaken the ridge. I get the impression from the models that if it does in fact break the ridge, then Ike, which will probably be in the middle of the gulf then, should tear up into LA/MS. Otherwise, LA/MS would probably be in the clear assuming Ike isn't just sitting still around that time, but moving west like I think it would be doing.

So a building ridge of high pressure would be good for me here in MS but a trough of low pressure coming down from the north weakening the ridge of high pressure would not be so good for me, correct?

Yes, especially if we're talking about Thursday. That's when I think the setup will have Ike poised to strike that area if a weakness develops from the trough.

[attallaman]

What happened in the upper atmosphere that caused the models to shift west towards TX/MX? A strong ridge of H pressure building in from the E to the W?

[attallaman]

So residents along the entire GOM region should get a better fix on where Ike will go by Wednesday? By Thursday?

[jinftl]

By Tuesday, there should be a better grasp on the forecast...but it is going to be a long week so take the time now and relax....in reality, the 5-day cone didn't even touch any land along the Gulf...that is how far out we are talking.

This story has shown he can do some unexpected moves....like i said..48 hours ago south florida was in the center of the cone...we are out of it now. 48 hours ago....you see why 144 hour or 168 hour forecasts would be pointless now....and unprofressional for anyone to label one location as more 'in the clear' than another.

So residents along the entire GOM region should get a better fix on where Ike will go by Wednesday? By Thursday?

[KWT]

Well looking at the models they have shifted quite a lot further west, will have to see if the enxt few models agree but thge 0z GFS once again creates a beast in global standards....

Anyway 06z coming out now.

[dwg71]

through 48 hours looks a little further to the north but no change can be determined long term

[KWT]

Yeah the 06z goes in a touch further along the coast but still spends over a day overland, woul imagine it would be a TS when it emerged on that track but who knows?

[Nimbus]

Short term if Ike is not gaining latitude before the eyewall makes landfall in Cuba I will donate $5 to Storm2k.

The 5AM NHC advisory should be the last mentioning any southern motion. there is a little dry air in the vicinity of Ike at the moment but that should mix out fairly quickly.

If Ike has a little less land interaction with Cuba than is currently forecast he will be a stronger system in the gulf.

There is some ridging starting to build over Texas now but just looking at the water vapor loop you can't get much of a feel for where a trough might drop in yet.

It would not take much of a model shift to the right to put LA/MS back under the gun though. If Ike gets progged 100 mile further north at day 3 he will be closer to any trough influence.

[dwg71]

90 hours out not much change still in SE Gulf.

[deltadog03]

Well, I see the models are towards texas....I am going to go out on a limb and say eh...not sure about that. Now, it is def. possible it gets out into the western gom, however IMO unlikely. The models, ( I will use 2..GFS and EURO) love to hang trof's out west too long. That is a well known model bias. So, in the end, its possible this goes that far west, but imo its not likely.