ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ROCK]

Is it me or has Gustav really slowed down?

it's slowed down to a bit of a crawl over the last 2 hours

I measure about 10nm past 3 hours toward 302 deg. About 3-4 kts. Might be starting to feel the ridge to its northwest a bit early?

it seems that way....steering is tightening to his NW....precursor to a turn to wnw or w....you might be on to something with your Yucatan track earlier unless your thoughts have changed...

[Stormcenter]

Not much of a front, dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s behind it, and the winds are going light and Northeast behind it. I don't think that front will leave so much as just wash out.

Is this the front he is referring too?

This is an excerpt from the NWS out N.O. afternoon
discussion.

LONG TERM...

BY 00Z WED...THE WEAK FRONT FINALLY SLIDES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA WHERE IT APPEARS TO WASH OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES. OUR REGION SHOULD RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER WITH
CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS. OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WILL LIKELY BE A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED
WITH "GUSTAV" WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Unless one is in the DR, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica or the Caymans, no need to panic right this instant.

Don't know if Carl Arredondo is still on in NOLA, but I'd watch him if he was and I was there.

[wxman57]

I measure about 10nm past 3 hours toward 302 deg. About 3-4 kts. Might be starting to feel the ridge to its northwest a bit early?

it seems that way....steering is tightening to his NW....precursor to a turn to wnw or w....you might be on to something with your Yucatan track earlier unless your thoughts have changed...

Well, I changed my forecast from this morning as it looked like Gustav would get north of 20 and catch the weakness in the ridge to the north on Friday, taking it into the Gulf rather than continuing west to the Yucatan. Wouldn't rule out a Yucatan impact though. I think this is just a temporary slowdown as it organizes, though.

[gatorcane]

Not much of a front, dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s behind it, and the winds are going light and Northeast behind it. I don't think that front will leave so much as just wash out.

Is this the front he is referring too?

This is an excerpt from the NWS out N.O. afternoon
discussion.

LONG TERM...

BY 00Z WED...THE WEAK FRONT FINALLY SLIDES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA WHERE IT APPEARS TO WASH OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES. OUR REGION SHOULD RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER WITH
CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS. OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WILL LIKELY BE A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED
WITH "GUSTAV" WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

No that's not the one. There was one when you clicked "NCEP/NWS Fronts" on the NHC WV overlays but they must have just removed it within the past hour because I don't see it anymore...

and yes that is a High building in over Texas -- front has washed out it appears. My front talk is wrong then....

[mattpetre]

I stick by Gustav missing Haiti (and I'm glad only Sanibel was willing to refute this.) I'm going to bed for the evening, but wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 2 by tomorrow night before a possible brush with Jamaica. It's going to be a long weekend for all interests from Cancun all the way up to Pensacola... Best of luck to all.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not much of a front, dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s behind it, and the winds are going light and Northeast behind it. I don't think that front will leave so much as just wash out.

Is this the front he is referring too?

This is an excerpt from the NWS out N.O. afternoon
discussion.

LONG TERM...

BY 00Z WED...THE WEAK FRONT FINALLY SLIDES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA WHERE IT APPEARS TO WASH OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES. OUR REGION SHOULD RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER WITH
CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS. OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER WILL LIKELY BE A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED
WITH "GUSTAV" WILL ALSO BEAR WATCHING FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

HPC forecasts a front to the Gulf on Day 7. Next Thursday, that front is still well up in the Plains...

[Blown Away]

According to the NHC it will take Gus almost 5 days to move 10 degrees of longitude (71W to 81W), that is moving really slow and I think things could significantly change in 5 days. Gus not expected to make it to Key West's longitude until almost Sunday. IMO, the slow speed is why the NHC used strong uncertainty wording in the 5pm discussion.

[ROCK]

I measure about 10nm past 3 hours toward 302 deg. About 3-4 kts. Might be starting to feel the ridge to its northwest a bit early?

it seems that way....steering is tightening to his NW....precursor to a turn to wnw or w....you might be on to something with your Yucatan track earlier unless your thoughts have changed...

Well, I changed my forecast from this morning as it looked like Gustav would get north of 20 and catch the weakness in the ridge to the north on Friday, taking it into the Gulf rather than continuing west to the Yucatan. Wouldn't rule out a Yucatan impact though. I think this is just a temporary slowdown as it organizes, though.

maybe so.....12Z CMC hinted at this possibility earlier today (Yucatan hit).....though Ed only sneezes at the CMC.......

[Portastorm]

We all know how difficult it is for the models to nail down intensity forecasts but does the same hold true for forecasts for windfield radii (i.e. HWRF and GFDL)? Just pondering how big ol' Gus might get before all is said and done.

[Wx_Warrior]

Gustav does have a good chance of once in the GOM of going west into So Tex/Mexico.

[Frank P]

Unless one is in the DR, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica or the Caymans, no need to panic right this instant.

Don't know if Carl Arredondo is still on in NOLA, but I'd watch him if he was and I was there.

Carl's still on WWL TV and radio. I heard him coming home from work.. he basically said lets wait and see what happens, mentioned it could get into the GOM or even go up the east coast ... not to overly concerned... yet..

I don't have any problem with Breck saying lets watch it... lord knows he blew Katrina stating it would never get into the GOM.. maybe he learned his lesson.. see if it does get into the GOM then worry... nothing is set in stone with these systems... models change, forecast change, intensity change.. its quite dynamic overall... prepare for the worst, hope for the best... and stay tuned

[LSU2001]

Unless one is in the DR, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica or the Caymans, no need to panic right this instant.

Don't know if Carl Arredondo is still on in NOLA, but I'd watch him if he was and I was there.

I do pay attention to Carl on Ch. 4 the wife had BB on the tube while I play on S2K, so I overheard the report. Let me be very, very clear, I know there is nothing to "panic" about now. I am not advocating overreaction. My concern is that many people do not pay close attention to the tropics, even on the coast. I talked to people today who thought Fay was still in the gulf . Those are the ones who could get confused and have the storm sneak up on them. Anyway enough about this personal rant. We need to get back on topic and I still haven't heard anyone say anything about the possible weakness left behind from Fay. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
Tim

[ConvergenceZone]

I measure about 10nm past 3 hours toward 302 deg. About 3-4 kts. Might be starting to feel the ridge to its northwest a bit early?

it seems that way....steering is tightening to his NW....precursor to a turn to wnw or w....you might be on to something with your Yucatan track earlier unless your thoughts have changed...

Well, I changed my forecast from this morning as it looked like Gustav would get north of 20 and catch the weakness in the ridge to the north on Friday, taking it into the Gulf rather than continuing west to the Yucatan. Wouldn't rule out a Yucatan impact though. I think this is just a temporary slowdown as it organizes, though.

Hehe, seems like the forecasts are all over the place. When I was watching the weather tonight, just a few minutes ago, the MET mentioned that same exact thing. He said, he wouldn't be suprised at all if this turns shortly and goes directly into the Yukatan and dies there.....I kinda got in on the tail end of the discussion, but he mentioned it potentially bumping into the high pressure, slowing down and then gradually turning west north west and then west into the Yukatan.....So our buddies there need to watch this thing very carefully.....

[senorpepr]

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Tropical Storm Gustav (07L)

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Louisiana, S Mississippi, and S Alabama Zoomed Surface Plots


Louisiana, S Mississippi, and S Alabama Zoomed Surface Plots, Pressure, and 0.5° Base Reflectivity


Louisiana, S Mississippi, and S Alabama Zoomed Surface Plots, Streamlines, and 0.5° Base Reflectivity


Louisiana, S Mississippi, and S Alabama Zoomed Surface Plots, Streamlines, Pressure, and 0.5° Base Reflectivity


Louisiana, S Mississippi, and S Alabama Zoomed Surface Plots and 0.5° Base Reflectivity

[gatorcane]

it certainly seems Gustav has slowed to a crawl..I'm thinking NHC will indicate an uncertain NW at about 8mph at this point although I see it even slower than that.

[ALhurricane]

It appears to me that Gustav will very likely stay south of Cuba as it treks across the NW Caribbean. The trough to its north is about to leave Gustav behind with strong ridging developing in the trough's wake. I see no way but a turn to the west before it can get to the latitude. I would fully expect the NHC forecast to continue trending left with time.

[Ixolib]

I live in the 72 hour evac. zone...

Of course we all know how crazy that "72-hour" plan really is for coastal LA!! I wanna see how many folks down in Terrebonne, Lafourche, and Lower Plaquemines - not to mention the upper parishes - really heed that supposed plan...

I agree with the intent, but the reality will prove otherwise - regardless of a storm's given path 72 hours out.

[O Town]

[gatorcane]

Is than an eye popping out again?