ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[dwg71]

dog, i have to agree. Im thinking Central LA to Panhandle. but not as deep as some might suggest, i think ike will enter cuba as cat 2 and exit strong TS. jmo

[Sihara]

The 5AM NHC advisory should be the last mentioning any southern motion.

Looks like W at 15 (14 on wx-underground). There isn't much chance of it resuming wsw, is there?

It would not take much of a model shift to the right to put LA/MS back under the gun though.

Well, that really would be bad. Another worst-case if it hit near NOLA, just as people are trying to get back to normal. What about chances for it to take the long route through Cuba - do any of the models dissipate it there?

Gotta feel sorry for the poor souls living in that island country - this would be their second cat4 hit in only a few weeks.

[KWT]

Yep I agree deltadog the worse model for being too far west is the ECM outside of 96hrs and that may well be whats happening happening here as well, we shall see I remember Rita was progged to take a very westerly track but it eventually lifted up didn't it.

dwg71, it may well exit as a TS, I still would expect a major hurricane given the length of time over the gulf though the shelf waters will probably prevent it getting much stornger then that unless it really bombs over the loop current...

[dwg71]

5+ days out and still south of nola Not much change so far.

[Viper54r]

big swing north and east @ 144 hrs

[KWT]

150hrs, looks like its about to hit western/central LA:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150m.gif

[Viper54r]

156 hrs brings it right up through CENLA

[dwg71]

gfs=gustav area landfall in 6.5 days moves landfall east from central texas to central la.

[deltadog03]

Sure this is the 6z run of the models, but just goes to show you how these swings are so severe sometimes. I seen the euro has swung east as well now....(0z run). The moutains out west reak havoc on these global models.

[KWT]

Yep the models will be shifting quite a bit from now on in as they try to gett to grips with exactly when a weakness comes along and what sort of timeframe.

[HouTXmetro]

What time is the next EURO?

[sphelps8681]

Pulled EURO up for 8/7/08 and it shows it hitting TX/LAfrom what I can tell. Is this lastest. Looks awfully big. Not a good thing at all.

BTW - Sorry 9/7/08

[attallaman]

Pulled EURO up for 8/7/08 and it shows it hitting TX/LAfrom what I can tell. Is this lastest. Looks awfully big. Not a good thing at all.

BTW - Sorry 9/7/08

Besides Wunderground where do you go to see these other model runs? Does each model have their own site?

[sphelps8681]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

This is one of the ones I go to. It will give several of the different models.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/ - this might be a better link.

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL ends south of Louisiana.


WHXX04 KWBC 071127
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.2 71.6 260./13.0
6 21.1 72.9 265./11.8
12 21.2 73.9 276./ 9.9
18 21.4 75.2 279./11.8
24 21.3 76.4 266./10.9
30 21.5 77.4 280./10.1
36 21.8 78.4 289./ 9.8
42 22.3 79.4 293./10.4
48 22.8 80.6 296./12.2
54 23.4 81.7 298./11.8
60 24.0 82.9 293./12.1
66 24.2 83.7 287./ 7.0
72 24.6 84.3 301./ 7.0
78 25.0 84.8 309./ 6.1
84 25.5 85.2 325./ 6.2
90 26.1 85.5 327./ 6.7
96 26.3 86.1 294./ 6.0
102 26.8 86.8 303./ 7.1
108 27.1 87.6 294./ 8.1
114 27.4 88.4 290./ 8.3
120 27.8 89.4 292./ 9.6
126 28.3 90.2 304./ 8.5

[jhpigott]

06z GFDL ends south of Louisiana.


WHXX04 KWBC 071127
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.2 71.6 260./13.0
6 21.1 72.9 265./11.8
12 21.2 73.9 276./ 9.9
18 21.4 75.2 279./11.8
24 21.3 76.4 266./10.9
30 21.5 77.4 280./10.1
36 21.8 78.4 289./ 9.8
42 22.3 79.4 293./10.4
48 22.8 80.6 296./12.2
54 23.4 81.7 298./11.8
60 24.0 82.9 293./12.1
66 24.2 83.7 287./ 7.0
72 24.6 84.3 301./ 7.0
78 25.0 84.8 309./ 6.1
84 25.5 85.2 325./ 6.2
90 26.1 85.5 327./ 6.7
96 26.3 86.1 294./ 6.0
102 26.8 86.8 303./ 7.1
108 27.1 87.6 294./ 8.1
114 27.4 88.4 290./ 8.3
120 27.8 89.4 292./ 9.6
126 28.3 90.2 304./ 8.5

is that still skirting the Cuban coast?

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z GFDL ends south of Louisiana.


WHXX04 KWBC 071127
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 7

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.2 71.6 260./13.0
6 21.1 72.9 265./11.8
12 21.2 73.9 276./ 9.9
18 21.4 75.2 279./11.8
24 21.3 76.4 266./10.9
30 21.5 77.4 280./10.1
36 21.8 78.4 289./ 9.8
42 22.3 79.4 293./10.4
48 22.8 80.6 296./12.2
54 23.4 81.7 298./11.8
60 24.0 82.9 293./12.1
66 24.2 83.7 287./ 7.0
72 24.6 84.3 301./ 7.0
78 25.0 84.8 309./ 6.1
84 25.5 85.2 325./ 6.2
90 26.1 85.5 327./ 6.7
96 26.3 86.1 294./ 6.0
102 26.8 86.8 303./ 7.1
108 27.1 87.6 294./ 8.1
114 27.4 88.4 290./ 8.3
120 27.8 89.4 292./ 9.6
126 28.3 90.2 304./ 8.5

is that still skirting the Cuban coast?

yes

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL animation.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[TampaFl]

8:00am poistion.

[caneman]

06 HWRF up off the West coast of Florida and landfall looks like Panhandle.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation