Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET goes to Ft Myers.



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.08.2008



TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 75.7W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 17.08.2008 19.6N 75.7W MODERATE

12UTC 17.08.2008 20.1N 78.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.08.2008 20.8N 80.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.08.2008 21.9N 81.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.08.2008 23.5N 82.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.08.2008 24.8N 82.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.08.2008 25.8N 83.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.08.2008 26.9N 83.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2008 28.6N 83.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2008 30.2N 83.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.08.2008 32.1N 84.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.08.2008 33.7N 84.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2008 34.5N 83.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

[Jason_B]

I just find it funny people dismiss when models dont show their area, Im not dismissing the other models, just throwing out the other options...but carry on

And you don't fall under this category too? You're always jumping on every model that has shifted towards your area, you even posted a old forecast graphic of Ivan.

[Ivanhater]

I just find it funny people dismiss when models dont show their area, Im not dismissing the other models, just throwing out the other options...but carry on

And you don't fall under this category too? You're always jumping on every model that has shifted towards your area, you even posted a old forecast graphic of Ivan.

Perhaps because I live where they are showing So obviously more interested in those solutions, but you dont see me saying to throw the other models out..keep up

[cheezyWXguy]

I just find it funny people dismiss when models dont show their area, Im not dismissing the other models, just throwing out the other options...but carry on

And you don't fall under this category too? You're always jumping on every model that has shifted towards your area, you even posted a old forecast graphic of Ivan.

Hes right. It displays a more plausible outcome than the eastern outliers, which initialize very poorly. Im pretty sure the nogaps initializes better. But it continues to show the ridge building west at the end of the period. There are now 3 models landfalling on the panhandle, with the consensus over the very northen tampa bay. Where in florida do you live jason?

[Dean4Storms]

this mean ur ignorin the canadian? the east outlier?[/quote]

Yes I'm ignoring this run of the Candian, it initializes Fay over eastern Cuba.[/quote]

GFDL now too?[/quote]


Did I say anything about the GFDL, it at least is initializing Fay pretty close to the suspected center.

[Steve]

I'm going to have to go ahead and catch Ivanhater's back on this one. It's one thing for people to be cocky, and whinecasty about stuff but he takes the high road. In the entire intrastate discussion, he's probably the least cockiest of all right now (not that anyone has really crossed the line this time IMHO).

Outsider opinion.

Steve

[HurricaneQueen]

Does anyone else see the shifting East to West and back again. It goes from 78.6 to 81.7 and back to 78.7.

18 21.5 78.6 320./14.6
24 22.6 79.8 312./15.3
30 23.2 81.0 298./12.3
36 23.9 81.5 325./ 8.2
42 24.9 81.6 352./ 9.5
48 25.7 81.7 351./ 8.6
54 26.9 81.3 20./12.8
60 28.1 81.0 13./12.0
66 29.2 80.4 29./11.9
72 30.1 79.9 29./ 9.9
78 31.0 79.6 22./ 9.7
84 31.9 79.1 24./10.2
90 32.8 78.8 20./ 9.0
96 33.8 78.7 8./10.2

[Ivanhater]

I'm going to have to go ahead and catch Ivanhater's back on this one. It's one thing for people to be cocky, and whinecasty about stuff but he takes the high road. In the entire intrastate discussion, he's probably the least cockiest of all right now (not that anyone has really crossed the line this time IMHO).

Outsider opinion.

Steve

Thanks Steve, you dont seem me syaing Nogaps will happen and the other models are wrong, just more interested in that solution for obvious reasons, Ive said numerous times my track is around the eastern panhandle, but ah people hear what they want. but C'est la vie

[Bocadude85]

Does anyone else see the shifting East to West and back again. It goes from 78.6 to 81.7 and back to 78.7.

18 21.5 78.6 320./14.6
24 22.6 79.8 312./15.3
30 23.2 81.0 298./12.3
36 23.9 81.5 325./ 8.2
42 24.9 81.6 352./ 9.5
48 25.7 81.7 351./ 8.6
54 26.9 81.3 20./12.8
60 28.1 81.0 13./12.0
66 29.2 80.4 29./11.9
72 30.1 79.9 29./ 9.9
78 31.0 79.6 22./ 9.7
84 31.9 79.1 24./10.2
90 32.8 78.8 20./ 9.0
96 33.8 78.7 8./10.2

thats b/c it hooks off to the NE

[physicx07]

So who was talking about possibly Fay having relocated down towards Jamaica? From what I'm seeing on the recon so far, they might have been right...stay tuned. Still fumbling around for a center.

[physicx07]

At least the center at 850 anyway.

So who was talking about possibly Fay having relocated down towards Jamaica? From what I'm seeing on the recon so far, they might have been right...stay tuned. Still fumbling around for a center.

[Steve]

>>So who was talking about possibly Fay having relocated down towards Jamaica? From what I'm seeing on the recon so far, they might have been right...stay tuned. Still fumbling around for a center.

19.6 on the new advisory.

Steve

[RL3AO]

The center has not relocated. You can tell by looking at wind direction.

[Jason_B]

The turn towards the north is already taking place, so the few western outliers are becoming more unlikely by each hour.

[NDG]

12z UKMET goes to Ft Myers.



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.08.2008



TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 75.7W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 17.08.2008 19.6N 75.7W MODERATE

12UTC 17.08.2008 20.1N 78.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.08.2008 20.8N 80.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.08.2008 21.9N 81.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.08.2008 23.5N 82.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.08.2008 24.8N 82.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.08.2008 25.8N 83.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.08.2008 26.9N 83.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2008 28.6N 83.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2008 30.2N 83.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.08.2008 32.1N 84.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.08.2008 33.7N 84.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2008 34.5N 83.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

Actually, well west of FT Myers by those coordinates, very close to St Pete and on northward

[SouthFloridawx]

Fairly well in agreement...

[Bocadude85]

anyone have the new hwrf?

[SouthFloridawx]

anyone have the new hwrf?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008081700-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Dean4Storms]

Fairly well in agreement...

Good News for me!

[Steve]

CLP5!