ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[lonelymike]

Yeah my family too Jason. Looks like the storm may miss to the west of NO which will be a blessing. Not for those poor people in the path of this monster. My prayers go out for them,

[Weatherfreak000]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE GUSTAV 07L
INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 30
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 19.2 80.0 300./ 8.0
6 19.5 81.0 288./10.2
12 20.4 81.8 318./11.7
18 21.4 82.9 312./13.2
24 22.1 83.6 315./10.6
30 23.1 84.6 315./12.6
36 24.1 85.4 322./12.8
42 25.1 86.2 319./12.4
48 26.2 87.2 319./13.6
54 27.0 88.4 305./14.0
60 28.0 89.3 315./12.5
66 29.0 90.2 320./12.7
72 30.0 91.1 317./13.2
78 30.7 91.9 312./10.0
84 31.5 92.6 320./10.0
90 32.3 93.3 319./ 9.3
96 32.7 93.9 305./ 6.4
102 32.6 94.3 255./ 3.6
108 32.7 94.5 292./ 1.9
114 32.3 95.1 241./ 6.2
120 31.7 95.2 187./ 6.1
126 31.4 95.4 216./ 4.4



(Just incase anyone missed it...people posted irrelevent material pushed it backwards)

[clfenwi]

Last two GFDL runs. I included the 18Z for comparison. Looks pretty much the same.

Noteworthy thing to me is that the GFDL had shifted left for three or four runs straight. That trend is now broken as the 00Z is ever so slightly to the east of the previous run.

[Stormcenter]

Last two GFDL runs. I included the 18Z for comparison. Looks pretty much the same.

Noteworthy thing to me is that the GFDL had shifted left for three or four runs straight. That trend is now broken as the 00Z is ever so slightly to the east of the previous run.

Is it? Are you sure?

[clfenwi]

Since we're talking models, it's worth noting that the model agreement at this time is a fair bit better than what existed at the point you noted with Katrina, compare with http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/archive/aal07_2008083000_track_early.png with http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/archive/2005/early_AAL12_05082612.png

Speaking of that graphic, what happened to the CONU concensus anyway? Did they discard it or just rename it?

Looking at the current list of identifiers, it looks like CONU was retired, with TCON being its replacement (using the HWRF vice the GFDN)

[clfenwi]

Last two GFDL runs. I included the 18Z for comparison. Looks pretty much the same.

Noteworthy thing to me is that the GFDL had shifted left for three or four runs straight. That trend is now broken as the 00Z is ever so slightly to the east of the previous run.

Is it? Are you sure?

Yep, if you look at the 00Z plot, you'll note that there's a tiny stretch of coast line that it has Gustav running on top of. The previous run had the storm slightly to the west of the coast line.

A small, almost insignficant difference to be sure, noteworty only in that marked a (temporary?) end to the GFDL shifting west with each run.

Much less subtle was the change in the UKMET run. It does not have Gustav making landfall during the forecast period, but rather has it making a hard left turn and finishing the 5 day period east of the U.S. / Mexico border.

[AL Chili Pepper]

UKMet 00Z
===================================
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.08.2008

HURRICANE GUSTAV ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 79.7W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072008
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.08.2008 19.6N 79.7W MODERATE
12UTC 30.08.2008 20.4N 81.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2008 21.9N 83.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2008 23.4N 84.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2008 25.0N 86.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2008 26.5N 88.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2008 27.6N 89.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2008 28.3N 91.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2008 28.4N 92.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2008 28.0N 93.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2008 27.2N 94.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2008 26.3N 95.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2008 25.3N 95.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[Texashawk]

Living in Houston, should I be worried that more and more of these models seem to be pushing a west/WSW turn just after or just before landfall in SW LA???

[srainhoutx]

Living in Houston, should I be worried that more and more of these models seem to be pushing a west/WSW turn just after or just before landfall in SW LA???

It gets my attention.

[Stormcenter]

Living in Houston, should I be worried that more and more of these models seem to be pushing a west/WSW turn just after or just before landfall in SW LA???

I am not.

[Stormcenter]

Is the UKMET seeing a much stronger ridge building in once Gustav
reaches the LA. coastline?

[Texashawk]

Living in Houston, should I be worried that more and more of these models seem to be pushing a west/WSW turn just after or just before landfall in SW LA???

I am not.

Well, now, that's a reassuringly mixed signal right there.

[ROCK]

Is the UKMET seeing a much stronger ridge building in once Gustav
reaches the LA. coastline?

sniffing something....I am just not sure what.....

[ROCK]

Living in Houston, should I be worried that more and more of these models seem to be pushing a west/WSW turn just after or just before landfall in SW LA???

I am not.

Well, now, that's a reassuringly mixed signal right there.

define concerned? I think you need to remain vigilant and stay informed....

[Texashawk]

Living in Houston, should I be worried that more and more of these models seem to be pushing a west/WSW turn just after or just before landfall in SW LA???

It gets my attention.

I swear, I feel like there's only about 3 people on this board who think this thing has any chance to curve our way. I feel like I'm crazy, or an idiot, frankly. But frankly, this thing hitting LA fights about 130 years of climatology and steering currents, plus I've never seen such a laser-like NW track in all my life. Something's not right about all this, and no I'm not a wish-caster...

edit: good one, 2K...

[ROCK]

Living in Houston, should I be worried that more and more of these models seem to be pushing a west/WSW turn just after or just before landfall in SW LA???

It gets my attention.

I swear, I feel like there's only about 3 people on this board who think this thing has any chance to curve our way. I feel like I'm crazy, or an idiot, frankly. But frankly, this thing hitting LA fights about 130 years of climatology and steering currents, plus I've never seen such a laser-like NW track in all my life. Something's not right about all this, and no I'm not a wish-caster...

edit: good one, 2K...

I dont think your correct in that assumption TXhawk.....we are in the cone so the possibility exists....model guidance is showing something different attm......We are watching it trust me....

[clfenwi]

00Z HWRF features an even tighter left turn than the UKMET does (although it takes place about 100 nm further north, inland of the Louisiana coast).

[physicx07]

Living in Houston, should I be worried that more and more of these models seem to be pushing a west/WSW turn just after or just before landfall in SW LA???

It gets my attention.

I swear, I feel like there's only about 3 people on this board who think this thing has any chance to curve our way. I feel like I'm crazy, or an idiot, frankly. But frankly, this thing hitting LA fights about 130 years of climatology and steering currents, plus I've never seen such a laser-like NW track in all my life. Something's not right about all this, and no I'm not a wish-caster...

edit: good one, 2K...

You're not crazy. Well, you might be, but I don't know about that. But a recurve is not out of the question. Question is whether it does it before landfall or after, if it does. Just before landfall would be bad for a lot of people if it scrapes along the coast at near full strength for a while. The surge would be bad.

[Nederlander]

Living in Houston, should I be worried that more and more of these models seem to be pushing a west/WSW turn just after or just before landfall in SW LA???

It gets my attention.

I swear, I feel like there's only about 3 people on this board who think this thing has any chance to curve our way. I feel like I'm crazy, or an idiot, frankly. But frankly, this thing hitting LA fights about 130 years of climatology and steering currents, plus I've never seen such a laser-like NW track in all my life. Something's not right about all this, and no I'm not a wish-caster...

edit: good one, 2K...

its not impossible, but focus on the cluster of models in agreement along with the NHC... the NHC is pretty darn good... right now looks like central LA and its been close to that for several runs now... not to say that anyone from houston to alabama is in the clear yet, but the models are pretty tightly packed right now...


edit: and i know a lot of people look at climatology, but in my own amateur and nonpro opinion, i dont think anyone should rely on climatology for forecasting hurricanes...

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO central la