ATL: IKE Discussion

[Storm Contractor]

Am I correct hat the Ridge to the north has really wound up in the last three hours?

3 hours ago


Latest Image


Now can someone explain what I see? And what that means for Ike's course.

Thanks

[Sanibel]

One look at the spaghetti chart shows the trend is left. The problem here is if Air Force Met's reasoning that Ike will find the weakness occurs the weakness will be moved further west with the ever-evolving west consensus which would increase the recurve angle for a west coast track like Donna.

[Bocadude85]

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I'm starting to that Cuba may well take the main blow if Ike doesn't balance out to the west, we shall see but I suspect the NHC shifts south again, maybe quite a bit in the short term next advisory. Sadly the Turks and Caicos still looking at a powerful hurricane being in the region.

Not for this advisory at least..expect only a small shift SW because several models still aim at SE Florida and the UKM as shifted north:

The HWRF shifted north also from last nights run

[jhpigott]

I'm curious what the Pro Mets, especially WXMAN57 and AIR FORCE MET, have to say about the latest guidance. Previously, both mets put their money on a more northerly, re curve, scenario... Will the models shift back?

+1

[KWT]

Things aren't looking good for Florida, yes Ike does seem to be a little soiuth of where expected but the HWRF still hits SE Florida and thats still a very possible set-up given what plenty of the other models show.

I suspect its probably 33/33/33 in terms of percentage of likely options, 1 being S.Florida hit, another being through the straights and another into the gulf via Cuba. EVERYONE needs to watch this still, even way up the coast.

[Evil Jeremy]

Latest dynamic model guidance at 12Z:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/12zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif

Expect the NHC cone to shift slightly farther southwest.

yep it probably will.

I guess things ARE looking good for SE Florida now! This far out the NHC cone is bound to change...and now the GFDL is showing Ike going well south of even the Keys.

I say that Ike misses Florida peninsula altogether, shoots through Cuba and the Florida straits, and hits the panhandle or some other gulf state.

How many times have we all seen this happen? The Florida peninsula usually gets hit in October from Caribbean storms coming from the southwest. Just as usual, SE Florida is just getting another empty threat, gas prices will rise, a state of emergency will be declared, and after all is said and done Ike will have not killed ANYONE and will have made landfall somewhere else.

I've seen this pattern all too much and am not going to start getting frantic and excited about a S FL landfall

If Ike does make landfall, it will probably be a small storm and quite weak and sheared. Basically, something almost always screws up in terms of the prospects of an intense hurricane making landfall in South Florida from the east (yes there are exceptions like Andrew and 1926 hurricane, but those are FEW and FAR between). We might not see another of those scenarios for another 50 years.

The thing is, South Florida is still in the cone! We are no way in heck in the clear, and it is horrible to think that. Furthermore, if Ike does come to Florida, it is forecast to be bigger than it is now, and as a Category 3 or 4. This is not an empty threat.

[tolakram]

Looks like the shear has gotten to the core. (if that's the right terminology)

[Sanibel]

Just because a track is eccentric by climatology doesn't mean it just isn't a new track arriving from random probability. This Cuba hit from the north is unprecedented but isn't much different than Betsy moved further south. If Cuba takes a category 4 from the NE I worry for north coast Cubans who probably aren't prepared for such an event. This would save me a hard trip to Miami to help my relative shutter up.

The air here was cool last night and today. Not a good feel for strong potential.

[KWT]

Yep the northern eyewall is totally open now, looks kind of like Gustav did when it was being hammered by shear, probably around 100kts now and weakening I'd bet.

Also whoever is in the cone still needs to watch Ike very closely, whatever we may think on here we need to watch offical guidence.

[HenkL]

According to the numbering, another flight must have been cancelled. I'd guess the 0900Z NOAA3 research flight for tomorrow.

[hiflyer]

For the post re plywood...am I right in remembering that Cat 1 and 2 and a soft 3 may work with plywood? And that plywood needs to be at least a 1/2 inch...mounted 'inside' the window opening to keep wind from getting under it? I am behind accordions now so not sure what the latest is.

[KWT]

Also note the arch of cloud to its north at the moment, I believe thats a deformation arc which is classic sign of bad shearing issues.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Just because a track is eccentric by climatology doesn't mean it just isn't a new track arriving from random probability. This Cuba hit from the north is unprecedented but isn't much different than Betsy moved further south. If Cuba takes a category 4 from the NE I worry for north coast Cubans who probably aren't prepared for such an event. This would save me a hard trip to Miami to help my relative shutter up.

The air here was cool last night and today. Not a good feel for strong potential.

If the Front depicted in the 06Z GFS was enev close to accurate it would not even make it to East coast FL! That s why i have my doubts in the 06Z runs...

[N2Storms]

[quote="Evil Jeremy"][quote="GreenSky"][quote="gatorcane"][quote="MiamiensisWx"]Latest dynamic model guidance at 12Z:

[url]http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/12zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif[/url]

Expect the NHC cone to shift slightly farther southwest.[/quote]

yep it probably will.[/quote]

I guess things ARE looking good for SE Florida now! This far out the NHC cone is bound to change...and now the GFDL is showing Ike going well south of even the Keys.

I say that Ike misses Florida peninsula altogether, shoots through Cuba and the Florida straits, and hits the panhandle or some other gulf state.

How many times have we all seen this happen? The Florida peninsula usually gets hit in October from Caribbean storms coming from the southwest. Just as usual, SE Florida is just getting another empty threat, gas prices will rise, a state of emergency will be declared, and after all is said and done Ike will have not killed ANYONE and will have made landfall somewhere else.

I've seen this pattern all too much and am not going to start getting frantic and excited about a S FL landfall

If Ike does make landfall, it will probably be a small storm and quite weak and sheared. Basically, something almost always screws up in terms of the prospects of an intense hurricane making landfall in South Florida from the east (yes there are exceptions like Andrew and 1926 hurricane, but those are FEW and FAR between). We might not see another of those scenarios for another 50 years.[/quote]

The thing is, South Florida is still in the cone! We are no way in heck in the clear, and it is horrible to think that. Furthermore, if Ike does come to Florida, it is forecast to be bigger than it is now, and as a Category 3 or 4. This is not an empty threat.[/quote]


I totally agree...the trend always seems to be that the models start one place and flip to the other and in the end they usually settle somewhere down the middle and in this case S. Fl is in the middle...I'm not want to sound like an alarmist but I really think Ike is going to nail S. Fla before turning north...just MHO but I really have a bad feeling about ol' Ike

[KWT]

Also one last thing that I see is the track is bending back a little more to the west, it may be the Ike is stair-stepping WSW who knows.

[HURAKAN]

Will the plane depart from Biloxi or St. Croix?

[jhpigott]

Also one last thing that I see is the track is bending back a little more to the west, it may be the Ike is stair-stepping WSW who knows.

i noticed that as well, not every day we see an Atlantic system "stair-stepping" WSW, one way or the other Ike looks like he is going to be south of the next forecast point

[THead]

Latest dynamic model guidance at 12Z:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/12zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif

Expect the NHC cone to shift slightly farther southwest.

yep it probably will.

I guess things ARE looking good for SE Florida now! This far out the NHC cone is bound to change...and now the GFDL is showing Ike going well south of even the Keys.

I say that Ike misses Florida peninsula altogether, shoots through Cuba and the Florida straits, and hits the panhandle or some other gulf state.

How many times have we all seen this happen? The Florida peninsula usually gets hit in October from Caribbean storms coming from the southwest. Just as usual, SE Florida is just getting another empty threat, gas prices will rise, a state of emergency will be declared, and after all is said and done Ike will have not killed ANYONE and will have made landfall somewhere else.

I've seen this pattern all too much and am not going to start getting frantic and excited about a S FL landfall

If Ike does make landfall, it will probably be a small storm and quite weak and sheared. Basically, something almost always screws up in terms of the prospects of an intense hurricane making landfall in South Florida from the east (yes there are exceptions like Andrew and 1926 hurricane, but those are FEW and FAR between). We might not see another of those scenarios for another 50 years.

You may be right, but these southward shifts are making me more nervous for sofla right now. Gives them more of a chance to get into the teeth of Ike's wrath (NE Quad), whatever it may be. Was really expecting a more Floyd-like scenario, recurve and total florida miss...bad for the bahamas...This will be amazing to me if it goes through the straits or into cuba......but then what do I know, except that he will eventually turn poleward, so when you're north of the track of one of these possible beasts, its scary. Everyone get ready in the cone!

[cycloneye]

The latest at 9:45 AM EDT.Not a clear eye but still is there.

[jenmrk]

If this were to go over Cuba, if it went over the mountains with it being a small storm what would be the effect on it, would the intensity at landfall and the small size weaken it more than a larger storm?
I hope my question makes sense.