ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ROCK]

Will it trend more left again tomorrow?

well based on the 0z GFS at 54hrs it hangs out at Jamiaca for a few days.....

[latemodel25]

I wonder if i should reconsider a trip to new orleans this holiday wkend? guess i should wait until wednesday so the mets can get a better idea of where its going..

[Innotech]

Im gonna make an early prediction now of the central gulf coast from N.O. to Pensacola for this storm. Its heading west but intensifying rapidly so it should curve more northward towards that area. that is assuming there arent major factors to swing it more easterly or westerly. this is just my early prediction though.

[twister]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Not wasting much time, is he? I would tend to agree he is very close to being a hurricane.

[lbvbl]

Whats with the NOGAPS track??? To follow that, Gus would have to start going NE... like now

[Texas Snowman]

A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL
EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.

You know, actually, given that statement, the 11 p.m. advisory, and the look of sat photos tonight, I'd say that Cat 1 is almost a foregone conclusion, a Cat 2 tomorrow is likely, and a Cat 3 is a good possibility.

As for the track, official track has trended left, so I wouldn't be surprised if that continues.

While I think the La/Ms coasts are the target areas at the moment, I wouldn't rule out a continued leftward trend that will move the final track towards SE Texas. Sorry if someone thinks this is Texas -removed-, but Texas worst hurricanes have been September hits and there hasn't been a bad September direct hit since the 1970s.

Either way, if either track (La/Ms or Texas) verifies, that will take Gustav over the loop current, correct?

[HouTXmetro]

Will it trend more left again tomorrow?

well based on the 0z GFS at 54hrs it hangs out at Jamiaca for a few days.....

Maybe the GFS thinks the steering currents will collapse around Jamaicia. Who knows? lol

[twister]

Whats with the NOGAPS track??? To follow that, Gus would have to start going NE... like now

UKMET has gus going fishing.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[ROCK]

A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL
EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.

You know, actually, given that statement, the 11 p.m. advisory, and the look of sat photos tonight, I'd say that Cat 1 is almost a foregone conclusion, a Cat 2 tomorrow is likely, and a Cat 3 is a good possibility.

As for the track, official track has trended left, so I wouldn't be surprised if that continues.

While I think the La/Ms coasts are the target areas at the moment, I wouldn't rule out a continued leftward trend that will move the final track towards SE Texas. Sorry if someone thinks this is Texas -removed-, but Texas worst hurricanes have been September hits and there hasn't been a bad September direct hit since the 1970s.

Either way, if either track (La/Ms or Texas) verifies, that will take Gustav over the loop current, correct?

Well the 0Z GFS is left....on this run....more west than I would have thought.,..

[Ptarmigan]

A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL
EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.

You know, actually, given that statement, the 11 p.m. advisory, and the look of sat photos tonight, I'd say that Cat 1 is almost a foregone conclusion, a Cat 2 tomorrow is likely, and a Cat 3 is a good possibility.

As for the track, official track has trended left, so I wouldn't be surprised if that continues.

While I think the La/Ms coasts are the target areas at the moment, I wouldn't rule out a continued leftward trend that will move the final track towards SE Texas. Sorry if someone thinks this is Texas -removed-, but Texas worst hurricanes have been September hits and there hasn't been a bad September direct hit since the 1970s.

Either way, if either track (La/Ms or Texas) verifies, that will take Gustav over the loop current, correct?

Looking at this historical map from Weather Underground where Gustav is located Texas gets the most hit if we were to use history. Not to scare anyone of course, but something to consider.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_climo.gif

[Scorpion]

Jamaica is going to get their worst hit in 20 years.

[Over my head]

A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL
EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.

You know, actually, given that statement, the 11 p.m. advisory, and the look of sat photos tonight, I'd say that Cat 1 is almost a foregone conclusion, a Cat 2 tomorrow is likely, and a Cat 3 is a good possibility.

As for the track, official track has trended left, so I wouldn't be surprised if that continues.

While I think the La/Ms coasts are the target areas at the moment, I wouldn't rule out a continued leftward trend that will move the final track towards SE Texas. Sorry if someone thinks this is Texas -removed-, but Texas worst hurricanes have been September hits and there hasn't been a bad September direct hit since the 1970s.

Either way, if either track (La/Ms or Texas) verifies, that will take Gustav over the loop current, correct?

RITA? 2005 Sept 24th

[Stormcenter]

Will it trend more left again tomorrow?

well based on the 0z GFS at 54hrs it hangs out at Jamiaca for a few days.....

If that's the case it may never make it into the GOM.

[ConvergenceZone]

Whats with the NOGAPS track??? To follow that, Gus would have to start going NE... like now

UKMET has gus going fishing.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Yea, the UKMET Track is totally Absurd.....Good entertainment though....or perhaps it's engaged in it's own wishful thinking......

[Sanibel]

This is going to be lucky to hit Haiti at this point. I'll owe Mattpetre a cigar.

[Texas Snowman]

Rita did not officially make landfall in Texas, it hit the Louisiana coast near Holly Beach.

That's why I said the last direct hit, meaning eye making landfall. Last major hurricane hitting Texas in September was Celia hitting Corpus Christi in the early 1970s, I believe.

[Texas Snowman]

Now that I think about it, I guess that Rita was a direct hit in that SE Texas suffered a lot of impact from the storm even though it was in the offshore flow coming around the left side of the eye-wall.

Again, what I was meaning there is that the storm officially made landfall in Louisiana.

Just as an FYI, right now, I'm reading "A Weekend in September", a historical account of the 1900 Galveston hurricane by John Edward Weems. Great read.

Although I'm hoping that the "storm 200 miles south of Haiti", then "crossing Cuba", and finally dealing its deadly blow to Texas is not a foreshadowing of what's to come.

[TexWx]

I too think Jamaica is in the path.
I've been listening to Power 106 over there and no mention at all.

Ok maybe I'm reading too much into this...

Gustav = GAlVesTon & US
hmmm

[Over my head]

Now that I think about it, I guess that Rita was a direct hit in that SE Texas suffered a lot of impact from the storm even though it was in the offshore flow side of the eye-wall for the most part.

Again, what I was meaning there is that the storm officially made landfall in Louisiana.

http://www.weather.gov/rita/rita_trak_lg.jpg Right on the line.


Officially.

[lbvbl]

If this thing does decide to stall, a forecast track shift is inevitable, considering the steering currents will continue to move while Gus is not. With that said, the questions remain..Will he stall? For how long? What will the steering currents do during this period?