Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[KWT]

Nogaps is still going for a more westerly motion and thus far has actually been the best model tracking Fay thus far.

GFS has shifted westward, will the ECM finally give up on its easterly track tonight and what will the GFDL show?

Also is it me or does the upper pattern on the GFS improve a little, still not stunning but better then presently?

[SouthFLTropics]

Shouldn't we be seeing the new GFDL very shortly?

[deltadog03]

GFS builds a HUGE anticyclone over most of the GOM in about 60 hours.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Shouldn't we be seeing the new GFDL very shortly?

its out..I lines up almost exactly with the NHC line..

[tolakram]

For some reason those Nogaps images never show up for me, is there a link you can post?

If you're using firefox you'll see something like:

http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil uses an invalid security certificate.

The certificate is not trusted because the issuer certificate is unknown.

(Error code: sec_error_unknown_issuer)

and a link to add an exception. Ignore the doomsday advice and go ahead and add the exception to see it.

[Jason_B]

For some reason those Nogaps images never show up for me, is there a link you can post?

If you're using firefox you'll see something like:

http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil uses an invalid security certificate.

The certificate is not trusted because the issuer certificate is unknown.

(Error code: sec_error_unknown_issuer)

and a link to add an exception. Ignore the doomsday advice and go ahead and add the exception to see it.

Thanks!

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS builds a HUGE anticyclone over most of the GOM in about 60 hours.

Delta,

How could this impact the future track of Fay. I would assume that it would mean a more favorable upper air environment for strengthening.

SFT

[KWT]

Here is the 48hr map at 300mbs which shows that upper high starting to show its hand:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

Shear hits this hard for the next 24hrs however.

[GreenSky]

GFS builds a HUGE anticyclone over most of the GOM in about 60 hours.

Delta,

How could this impact the future track of Fay. I would assume that it would mean a more favorable upper air environment for strengthening.

SFT

Looks like Fay will already have moved inland into Florida after the anticyclone develops!
Goooood news for Florida...because if this anticyclone develops any sooner and affects Fay, you can bet on "explosive intensification" Derek was pointing out in his yesterday evening forecast.

Problem is, besides forecasting Fay, it is damn difficult to make predictions about upper level lows and anticyclones...that is all at the mercy of rather fickle whimsical computer models that flip flop whenever they feel like.

[Dean4Storms]

HWRF, Shift West.......

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Dean4Storms]

GFDL........Tampa

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[AL Chili Pepper]

It's kind of interesting what the GFS is doing. It builds a strong ridge NE of the storm, stalls it in GA, and shoves it all the way back to Mississippi.

[Ivanhater]

It's kind of interesting what the GFS is doing. It builds a strong ridge NE of the storm, stalls it in GA, and shoves it all the way back to Mississippi.

A lot of the models are building the high back in strong, timing is everything as ususal

[Rainband]

UKmet now showing similar track

[KWT]

Even if Fay does move inland before the ULH develops once it moves north the shear should ease off according to the models as the ULL drifts over the Yucatan and elongates out whilst the ULH strengthens further north.

[gatorcane]

a few pages back somebody showed the GFS thinking Florida gets hit by another system about 10 days out....

Maybe its that wave east of the leewards..just a thought but at least we have plenty of time to track it.

[Derek Ortt]

HWRF with a near major hurricane, bringing cat 2 winds to Tampa

[jconsor]

I'm not so sure why many posters (and the NHC) expected some strengthening on Saturday night and Sunday.

Since Saturday's 12z runs, neither the GFDL nor the HWRF (two of the best models in terms of intensity forecasts) have been indicating significant strengthening until the center clears the north coast of Cuba and enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. That is, if you ignore the slight drop in pressure that GFDL and HWRF both show in the first 6 hours of each run, which is insignificant because it takes at least 6 hours for the model to "spin-up". (By the way, I would drop about 10 mb off the HWRF's landfall pressure, because it shows a drop from 1002 mb to 991 mb in the first 6 hours of the run). Thus, a better estimate of the WRF's landfall pressure would be about 955 mb.

The upper level environment looks to be better once the storm gets in the southeastern Gulf, as the upper low that has been shearing Fay elongates and shifts west.

The 12z WRF and GFDL, which are initialized off the GFS grid, show a delayed and further north landfall compared to their 00Z runs. Both also have a stronger storm than the 00Z runs. However, the WRF is further north than the GFDL and keeps the center out over water 18 to 24 hours longer than the GFDL.

The WRF also shows rapid intensification, while the GFDL only has gradual intensification. Given that these models have handled Fay's intensity well so far, I would not so quickly ignore their forecasts. However, while I lean more toward the HWRF's track (i.e. a landfall over the far north part of the west coast of Florida or the Big Bend area of Florida), I would generally lean toward a more conservative rate of strengthening similar to the GFDL. The main reason is that Fay has had a very hard time developing a well-defined inner core.

Thus, my best expectation is for a Category 1 or weak Category 2 hurricane at landfall. I would put the chances of a category 3 at about 15%.

[gatorcane]

I'm not so sure why many posters (and the NHC) expected some strengthening on Saturday night and Sunday.

Because NHC has been insistent on a good possibility that it becomes a hurricane or near hurricane strength before making landfall in Western Cuba.

from 2pm EST NHC advisory:

SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES WESTERN
CUBA.

[drezee]

BAM suite left turn is quite alraming...