ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[southerngale]

A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL
EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.

You know, actually, given that statement, the 11 p.m. advisory, and the look of sat photos tonight, I'd say that Cat 1 is almost a foregone conclusion, a Cat 2 tomorrow is likely, and a Cat 3 is a good possibility.

As for the track, official track has trended left, so I wouldn't be surprised if that continues.

While I think the La/Ms coasts are the target areas at the moment, I wouldn't rule out a continued leftward trend that will move the final track towards SE Texas. Sorry if someone thinks this is Texas -removed-, but Texas worst hurricanes have been September hits and there hasn't been a bad September direct hit since the 1970s.

Either way, if either track (La/Ms or Texas) verifies, that will take Gustav over the loop current, correct?

Uh, Rita.... hello?

I'm quite certain that's the worst hurricane anyone living here has ever seen hit here, in any month. There are people still recovering from Rita.... it was only 3 years ago.


Edit: I see you mentioned Rita later. I had already started this post, then got up for a couple of minutes before finishing it.

[RL3AO]

Looks good on microwave.

[artist]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST but do you all remember when the NHC use to do percentage probability by city? For examble right now IfI had to assign a forecast percentage for final landfall area I would go with...

8% SE FL/East coast
23% FL West coast to Big Bend
35% Pensecola Westward to Nola
27% South Central LA
13% Upper TX/SWLA
18% Mid TX Coast
23% STX/ Northern MX coastI use to love checking the latest NHC updates and precentages

Can u provide the link to the site for future reference? Thanks in advance.

go to the NHC and scroll down to Tropical Storm Gustav and the click on Wind Storm Probabilities # 4. They still have it there.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0258.shtml

[hurrican19]

I think what he's trying to say is -- There hasn't been a storm in SETX that has brought up the massive storm surge into populated areas.. Maybe "Direct Hit" isn't the proper term for this, rather a "Direct Hit at High Island" would been the worse case scenerio for SETX.

[Steve]

>>Now if she were coming through the Yucatan channel then it would be a different story. Anyway why be concerned? There
is nothing to worry about right now.

Sure there is. We got maybe 60 hours notice for Katrina. You have to get your stuff done early. Evacuation provisions; stay-put provisions, etc. If you get all that done, you don't have to worry about what to save and end up either forgetting your important documents or bins of photos or whatever. You can get furniture off of the ground, put your antiques up on tables or in attics. My dad, who had evacuated for Ivan and Dennis, forgot his photos for Katrina. He had 4 generations worth of photographs and 3 generations of home movies (some had been put on VHS). All of that stuff gets ruined when soaked - including negatives. Then there are family heirlooms, jewelry, your kindergarten art that your mom saved and gave to you. Things you can lose are endless. So you worry. Me? No worries. All my possessions can fit into suitcases and the bed of my Toyota pickup truck. I'm lucky in that respect - lost it all, don't care anymore. But it's tough to know that someone's life history can get snuffed out in an instant. Compound that with practically everyone else you know and well, you get the idea. Any threat for a major, while nothing to "worry" about a week out, is still something to take note of and should be a call to early action for most enthusiasts. JMO

Steve

[Pebbles]

Jamaica is going to get their worst hit in 20 years.

Don't be so sure about that. I've seen storms do strange things around Jamaica.

We were all screaming the same thing hours... minutes before what was, most of us thought, a for sure landfall with Ivan and look what happened....

And this isn't the only time I've seen that sort of thing with that island.

BTW.. Power 106 is the bomb to listen to during storms. Now, I'm not that I'm saying it's good when they get hit by the storm. Just that the station is all over the coverage with live reporting.

[lamsalfl]

Okay, let's go over some basic facts and debunk some myths when analyzing hurricanes. Confirm or deny please.

1) The stronger hurricanes tend to move more poleward.

2) What can we take away from extrapolation lines across the map? Anything at all?

[RL3AO]

Okay, let's go over some basic facts and debunk some myths when analyzing hurricanes. Confirm or deny please.

1) The stronger hurricanes tend to move more poleward.

2) What can we take away from extrapolation lines across the map? Anything at all?

1) Um...its kinda true and its kinda false. But it depends on steering currents. In this case, a cat 1 will probably take a similar path to a cat 5.

2) Nothing.

[TexWx]

"1) The stronger hurricanes tend to move more poleward."

I'm thinking stronger storms tend to move with the steering currents more often...
??

[Texas Snowman]

Well, not trying to "split hairs" because being a Texan, I certainly remember the damage that Rita caused in our state.

But from the official history of Rita on the NHC Web site (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ms-word/TCR-AL182005_Rita.doc ) the official point of the eye's landfall was just east of Sabine Pass:

Rita maintained Category 3 status up to the time of landfall of the center, which occurred at 0740 UTC 24 September with an estimated intensity of 100 kt, in extreme southwestern Louisiana just west of Johnson’s Bayou and just east of Sabine Pass.

Rita weakened after making landfall, remaining a hurricane until only about 1200 UTC 24 September when it was centered about 35 n mi north of Beaumont, Texas.

Of course, not that it matters at all since both SW La and SE Texas both endured a horrible beating from this Cat 3 storm.

All in all, it was a poor choice of words on my part. Instead of saying direct hit, which Texas certainly received, I should have said a landfalling hurricane whose eye and worst storm surge officially occurred at some point within the boundaries of Texas.

Meanwhile, back on topic - sorry for the detour.

[pojo]

Jamaica is going to get their worst hit in 20 years.

I wouldn't be so sure about that.... you do remember Ivan right?

[lamsalfl]

>>Now if she were coming through the Yucatan channel then it would be a different story. Anyway why be concerned? There
is nothing to worry about right now.

Sure there is. We got maybe 60 hours notice for Katrina. You have to get your stuff done early. Evacuation provisions; stay-put provisions, etc. If you get all that done, you don't have to worry about what to save and end up either forgetting your important documents or bins of photos or whatever. You can get furniture off of the ground, put your antiques up on tables or in attics. My dad, who had evacuated for Ivan and Dennis, forgot his photos for Katrina. He had 4 generations worth of photographs and 3 generations of home movies (some had been put on VHS). All of that stuff gets ruined when soaked - including negatives. Then there are family heirlooms, jewelry, your kindergarden art that your mom saved and gave to you. Thinks you can lose are endless. So you worry. Me? No worries. All my possessions can fit into suitcases and the bed of my Toyota pickup truck. I'm lucky in that respect - lost it all, don't care anymore. But it's tough to know that someone's life history can get snuffed out in an instant. Compound that with practically everyone else you know and well, you get the idea. Any threat for a major, while nothing to "worry" about a week out, is still something to take note of and should be a call to early action for most enthusiasts. JMO

Steve

Same here. I'm 25, just got my master's, still looking for a job, and possibly out of state. I'm basically a free agent. I can get my most prized possessions in my car quickly, and be gone. It's my parents' house and their self-employed jobs that worry me. I'm okay, since I'm just working in a restaurant, but I don't want my parents' lives (or anyone else's for that matter) to be up a river without a paddle. That said, I've learned from Katrina to evacuate several hours earlier. 2 hours to do the first 20 miles of my evacuation, and 17 to Atlanta (normally 7). I would get out much earlier than in 2005.

[Steve]

>>Okay, let's go over some basic facts and debunk some myths when analyzing hurricanes. Confirm or deny please.

1) Depends. It's a rough rule of thumb, but it always depends on atmospheric circumstances.

2) The current heading.

Steve

[fasterdisaster]

I doubt Gustav will be worse for Jamaica than Dean.

[Scorpion]

Jamaica is going to get their worst hit in 20 years.

I wouldn't be so sure about that.... you do remember Ivan right?

Dean also did something similar. However I'm feeling the circumstances are different as this is likely to either hit Jamaica or go north of it.

[lbvbl]

"1) The stronger hurricanes tend to move more poleward."

I'm thinking stronger storms tend to move with the steering currents more often...
??

Yeah thats pretty much accurate. That's why weak storms are so difficult to predict, because they are more likely to move erratically, whereas stronger storms tend to be easier to predict, although do not assume strong storms cannot change track without warning as well.

[ROCK]

Jamaica is going to get their worst hit in 20 years.

I wouldn't be so sure about that.... you do remember Ivan right?

yeah Pojo but didnt Ivan do a dance around Jam.....sparing the eyewall to some extent?

[Jason_B]

Strong hurricanes don't ALWAYS move poleward, for example if there's a giant ridge parked over it.

[pojo]

I think Gustav will be a Category 1 hurricane by tomorrow. Conditions are favorable for Gustav.

I'm calling 06z fix.

[CrazyC83]

I doubt Gustav will be worse for Jamaica than Dean.

Gilbert was a Cat 3 in Jamaica and it was catastrophic there...