ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[HouTXmetro]

Is that updated?

[dwg71]

yes metro that is latest, central la. still is consensous.

[jwayne]

am I seeing a high dive into gulf now? was that expected this early? will it possibly turn the storm earlier more westerly?

[txag2005]

How are things looking for a Houston/Galveston hit? I'm feeling a little better today.

[HouTXmetro]

yes metro that is latest, central la. still is consensous.

GFDL/GFS showing stall near Lufkin... Looks like Gustav will be flooding TX&LA with torrential rains well after landfall. This is not looking good folks.

[txag2005]

yes metro that is latest, central la. still is consensous.

GFDL/GFS showing stall near Lufkin... Looks like Gustav will be flooding TX&LA with torrential rains well after landfall. This is not looking folks.

Not good at all.

[BigB0882]

Yeah, my parents want me to come up to their place in Crockett but I am afraid that I will get stuck there with all the rain they could possibly get. I would be flying up there on my dad's plane and he doesn't fly in anything but perfect weather. With my luck, somehow Baton Rouge would dodge the bullet and I would need to be back at work first thing Wed but would be stuck in Texas, lol!

[Nimbus]

From the pro met Jeff Lindner update:

A long review of the water vapor and current steering analysis shows a 400mb anticyclone over AL and MS shifting southward very slowly while the trough in the Gulf yesterday has fractured with a part heading NE through SC and the other part heading W through the northern Gulf. The western shift in the guidance may be these models picking up on this high and trying to figure out how to deal with that and Gustav. For now a general NW heading through the SE and into the central Gulf is still very likely…after 48 hours the track may begin to bend back toward the left some…how much will be determined by the high over AL and MS and more importantly by the deep layer ridging building down from the OH valley.

New high in the model data for future runs.

[jwayne]

From the pro met Jeff Lindner update:

A long review of the water vapor and current steering analysis shows a 400mb anticyclone over AL and MS shifting southward very slowly while the trough in the Gulf yesterday has fractured with a part heading NE through SC and the other part heading W through the northern Gulf. The western shift in the guidance may be these models picking up on this high and trying to figure out how to deal with that and Gustav. For now a general NW heading through the SE and into the central Gulf is still very likely…after 48 hours the track may begin to bend back toward the left some…how much will be determined by the high over AL and MS and more importantly by the deep layer ridging building down from the OH valley.

New high in the model data for future runs.

This is what I was talking about. This storm may have a few tricks up it's sleeve.

[dwg71]

hi appears to be heading more west than south, on wv. Gus looks to be headed for Cuba a bit quicker and a bit more east than forecast.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[Extremeweatherguy]

This could potentially become a big inland flooding event after landfall. Gustav is forecasted to slow down over northeastern Texas, and as a front approaches from the north, the two features may combine to generate a tight pressure gradient (a.k.a. gusty winds) and a good deal of precipitation over parts of Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Arkansas by mid to late next week. This is certainly not good news considering these areas have already been experiencing flooding issues over the past couple of weeks.

We will need to watch this closely...

[HouTXmetro]

From the pro met Jeff Lindner update:

A long review of the water vapor and current steering analysis shows a 400mb anticyclone over AL and MS shifting southward very slowly while the trough in the Gulf yesterday has fractured with a part heading NE through SC and the other part heading W through the northern Gulf. The western shift in the guidance may be these models picking up on this high and trying to figure out how to deal with that and Gustav. For now a general NW heading through the SE and into the central Gulf is still very likely…after 48 hours the track may begin to bend back toward the left some…how much will be determined by the high over AL and MS and more importantly by the deep layer ridging building down from the OH valley.

New high in the model data for future runs.

I see itm tbut it looks like it's weakening already. Still interesting development.

[Nimbus]

A large area over Texas is rotating clockwise so even though the high over MS/AL is weak there still may be some steering changes ahead.

A major hurricane can whip the upper air elements around in short order bridging highs etc. They even can build a high pressure dome over themselves sometimes.

[jwayne]

18z NAM looks to be TX/LA border. I know, it's only the NAM.

[HouTXmetro]

A large area over Texas is rotating clockwise so even though the high over MS/AL is weak there still may be some steering changes ahead.

A major hurricane can whip the upper air elements around in short order bridging highs etc. They even build a dome of high pressure domes over themselves sometimes.

That area is building outwards also.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This could potentially become a big inland flooding event after landfall. Gustav is forecasted to slow down over northeastern Texas, and as a front approaches from the north, the two features may combine to generate a tight pressure gradient (a.k.a. gusty winds) and a good deal of precipitation over parts of Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Arkansas by mid to late next week. This is certainly not good news considering these areas have already been experiencing flooding issues over the past couple of weeks.

We will need to watch this closely...

The 18z GFS shows what I am talking about quite clearly. You can see how the front meets up with Gustav to create quite an interesting event over TX/OK/LA/AK...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

[PTPatrick]

That front aint gonna be no joke either. Denver will be going from Highs today around 90 to 70/upper 60s midweek...

[BigB0882]

That front aint gonna be no joke either. Denver will be going from Highs today around 90 to 70/upper 60s midweek...

So are you saying that I should be in Denver right now?

[PTPatrick]

Sure am. Denver weather is beautiful. Wish I could my parents off that confounded bayou so they dont have to worry with these things anymore...

[Nederlander]

when can we expect the new models to come out? itll be interesting to see how much, if any, these models shift...