ATL: IKE Discussion

[loxahatchee13]

Dereks forecast is a little scary

[Scorpion]

Yesterday some people were saying this would miss Florida to the north, now people are saying it will miss us to the south? Come on, its 4 days out and Florida is right in the middle of the model solutions.

[CourierPR]

Dereks forecast is a little scary

Would you provide a brief summary?

[gatorcane]

Yesterday some people were saying this would miss Florida to the north, now people are saying it will miss us to the south? Come on, its 4 days out and Florida is right in the middle of the model solutions.

indeed the models are trying to settle on a solution (hence east shift followed by west shift etc) but no doubt Southern FL including metro Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade are well within the target zone.

Lets see how they trend.

[gtsmith]

Dereks forecast is a little scary

Would you provide a brief summary?

its in the trop analysis forum, right here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=103038

[Jinkers]

This morning on Local 10 in Miami, former NHC Director, Max Mayfield, sounded very serious when discussing a possible threat to S FL. Again, he is not given to hype nor is Local 10.

I saw that to, and he is really concerned, and I also know they're one of the few channels down here that don't give into the hype, Max Mayfield said if he didn't have accordian shutters, he would be putting them up this weekend.

[Vortex]

climatology rules and a storm ese of Miami in early september near Adros Island as a possible cat 4 has the ermarks of a hallmalk storm for southern fl/keys. ENOUGH SAID!

[KWT]

Personally, I still see a long term WSW movement...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

I would not focus on minute wobbles. It's clearly passing slightly south of the next TPC point.

I think Ike is probably stair stepping down on a WSW, the last 2-3hrs have been much closer to due west then the previous 2-3hrs but of course the longer term motion needs to be payed more attention.

For now Florida, the keys and Cuba probably have about an equal chance of landfall right now, still too early to know, just watch the longer term tredns of the models and the sat.imagery.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

climatology rules and a storm ese of Miami in early september near Adros Island as a possible cat 4 has the ermarks of a hallmalk storm for southern fl/keys. ENOUGH SAID!

Precisely

[Aristotle]

Is Ike gonna gain any size at all or do these things pretty much remain the same over time? Anyone?

[tekno]

anyone know why does accu~wx put this thing far right of the mean forecast??

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... stormNum=8

[rockyman]

NHC shifts west and south again:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

[Canelaw99]

I know there are people here who live/drive by FIU and the NHC building. Can y'all let us know when they put their shutters up, or if they don't? LOL That might give the rest of us a good way to judge how serious the S FL threat is

*sorry, had to add a little lightness this morning - things are so tense around here....*

[CourierPR]

climatology rules and a storm ese of Miami in early september near Adros Island as a possible cat 4 has the ermarks of a hallmalk storm for southern fl/keys. ENOUGH SAID!

Actually, prevailing upper level steering currents rule. Climatology is not a steering current, it's guiding meteorological history.

[rockyman]

5 day forecast at 11am

Outlook valid 10/1200z 25.5n 82.0w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

5 day forecast at 5am:
120hr VT 10/0600z 26.0n 81.0w 95 kt...inland

[Blown Away]

Accuweather seeing a different path, not surprised.

[KWT]

climatology rules !

If that was the cas eIke would be recurving right here and now, I don't think any system that was near 24N at 60W has hit Florida before at this time of the year, the only one that came close was the 1893 sea islands hurricane.

[cycloneye]

NHC 11 AM Track goes into GOM:

[funster]

Yeah, Ike could be the long feared disaster scenario for South Florida or it could miss as so many have before. I'm hoping for a big miss!

[Bgator]

When does the Hurricane Hunter plane go in?