ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[KWT]

Well thats only a forecast Gatorcane, whilst the best track is clearly too far west it does show this only gaining 0.2N in the last 12hrs, hardly WNW...but thats for the other thread really!

[Stratosphere747]

Again these early model runs are showing the area to the N developing.

Look back down around 11/53.

Yes that is the 1009MB low depicted by TAFB its already moving WNW and gaining lattitude.

I'd look for that area to the SSE to become more dominant.

[jaxfladude]

New EURO east of Florida

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008082212!!/

Yes but it was well to the right of Florida in the previous run, then yesterday's run showed it just south of Cuba. That is telling me it expects something signficant to head generally in a WNW or NW direction from the Eastern Caribbean or Western MDR and be generally in the vicinity between Cuba, Bahamas, or Western Atlantic in the appx 7-10 day timeframe.

That run is way too close to Florida for comfort

Oh no, Fay will then be the appetizer, if that is possible.....

[Ed Mahmoud]

The GFDL finally shows this developing, which suggests the conditions are getting more favorable.


Still looks disorganized, and I'm not sure which blob develops, but GFDL hits Jamaica with a major.




My AccuWeather PPV 500 mb outer grid heights suggests pretty solid ridging might steer this into the Yucatan then well South of the US border, but it also shows a slightly positively tilted trough, from SW Louisiana to Lake Michigan, pretty deep trough for August, really, that might try to recurve Gustav to be towards the Central or Eastern Gulf.

Assuming, of course, this even develops, and GFDL outer height field is reasonably accurate.

[Stratosphere747]

[cycloneye]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just looked at AccuWx 500 mb heights from beginning to end, and the 500 mb low that is Fay connects to a trough in the Westerlies, and instead of ex-Fay lifting out, the trough comes all the way down to meet it, and then is slow to lift out.


Interesting.

[deltadog03]

[dwg71]

The intensity models are funny. most have a TS in 12 hours and a Hurrican in 72.

[Portastorm]

Don't fall for it, deltadog! Ed's just talking trough in the Gulf because he has already gone on record as saying our Texas season is finished!

[perk]

Don't fall for it, deltadog! Ed's just talking trough in the Gulf because he has already gone on record as saying our Texas season is finished!

Portastorm you beat me to it, i thought the same thing when i read Ed's post. He mentioned the east and central GOM, but not the western GOM.

[KWT]

A lot of the models has this reaching hurricane force by the end of thier runs, a few have this close to cat-3 and one has it bordering cat-4 strength from what I've seen...those higher strength runs are certainly possible if it can avoid Hispaniola.

[gboudx]

Don't fall for it, deltadog! Ed's just talking trough in the Gulf because he has already gone on record as saying our Texas season is finished!

DFW NWS does mention the models sending an unusually strong cold front down the Plains and into Texas mid-late next week. Maybe an early Fall?

[Ed Mahmoud]

:P

I liked your pre-edited comments better.

[deltadog03]

I just moved them....thats all

[Ed Mahmoud]

Don't fall for it, deltadog! Ed's just talking trough in the Gulf because he has already gone on record as saying our Texas season is finished!

DFW NWS does mention the models sending an unusually strong cold front down the Plains and into Texas mid-late next week. Maybe an early Fall?

And maybe another Cowboys Thanksgiving Day football game in the sleet before they move to Arlington?

Maybe another Houston Christmas Eve snow flurries miracle?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I just moved them....thats all

To the electronic dustbin?

[terrapintransit]

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... models.jpg

Looking Ominous...

[KWT]

The only good thing is that some of those models are based off GFs, others are just based on current steering conditions as well. If you included UKMIO and ECM there would be a track over Hispaniola as well...

[Praxus]

Looks troublesome for Jamaica. They've had bad luck with canes these past few years...