ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[txag2005]

Just saw this link on another board and it scared me half to death. Can someone explain what on earth this map shows??

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_gfs1.png

[AL Chili Pepper]

Sure am. Denver weather is beautiful. Wish I could my parents off that confounded bayou so they dont have to worry with these things anymore...

I was in Denver 2 weeks ago on vacation and love it out there. Winter Park, Rockies game, Pike's Peak. Started out at Pike's Peak at around 85 degrees and by the time I got to the top it was 42 with about a 25 mph wind...and there I was with short pants and a t-shirt on.

[Nederlander]

Just saw this link on another board and it scared me half to death. Can someone explain what on earth this map shows??

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_gfs1.png

looks like some garbage models

[Wthrman13]

Just saw this link on another board and it scared me half to death. Can someone explain what on earth this map shows??

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_gfs1.png

Those are all the GFS ensemble member tracks. The GFS ensemble members are run at a lower resolution than the operational run, and so probably don't handle the storm very well, making it hard to pinpoint a center from which to draw a track. In my experience, the GFS ensembles perform poorly relative to the operational GFS for TC track forecasting. Perhaps if they ran the GFS ensemble at the same resolution as the operational, it would have more value for this purpose, but that requires quite a bit of computing power.

[PTPatrick]

Posted this over on the main thread by accident....

18z UKMET a bit east...does NOT look good for NOLA or MS run...enough further east it looks like to get NOLA in the eye wall and probably quite a surge into MS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[dixiebreeze]

Gotta mention that the consistent NE convection outflow is making me nervous.

[Scorpion]

HWRF is 909 mb at Houma.

[KWT]

Yep the UKMO seems to be a very bad run for N.O...

909mbs, very low pressure expected by that model!

[PTPatrick]

Could you post a link scorpion? to the 18z HWRF?

[AL Chili Pepper]

18Z GFS 850mb vort @ 48hrs

[jaxfladude]

Yep the UKMO seems to be a very bad run for N.O...

909mbs, very low pressure expected by that model!

That would rank as the 2nd lowest pressure of a land falling hurricane in the history of the CONUS!(or at least tie 1969's Hurricane Camille)

[Nederlander]

Gotta mention that the consistent NE convection outflow is making me nervous.

I think there will be a NW and then WNW curve prior to landfall as the models indicate.. i do think, however, its going to be a longer, more gradual curve, and not sharp curve at landfall.. Gus still goes west of NOLA, IMO... that high will be in place as a steering current and then we will see from there...

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[Stormcenter]

Posted this over on the main thread by accident....

18z UKMET a bit east...does NOT look good for NOLA or MS run...enough further east it looks like to get NOLA in the eye wall and probably quite a surge into MS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

It may go even further east with the next run.

[Stormcenter]

Yep the UKMO seems to be a very bad run for N.O...

909mbs, very low pressure expected by that model!

That would rank as the 2nd lowest pressure of a land falling hurricane in the history of the CONUS!(or at least tie 1969's Hurricane Camille)

Well all know it won't have low of a pressure when it coms inland. The waters can't sustain
a Cat. 5. JMHO

[jaxfladude]

Yep the UKMO seems to be a very bad run for N.O...

909mbs, very low pressure expected by that model!

That would rank as the 2nd lowest pressure of a land falling hurricane in the history of the CONUS!(or at least tie 1969's Hurricane Camille)

Well all know it won't have low of a pressure when it comes inland. The waters can't sustain
a Cat. 5. JMHO

Thanks for that very important snippet....

[AL Chili Pepper]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE GUSTAV 07L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 30
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 21.6 82.6 315./13.0
6 22.4 83.5 313./11.9
12 23.5 84.4 320./13.4
18 24.7 85.3 321./14.4
24 25.6 86.2 319./12.6
30 26.6 87.3 312./14.0
36 27.5 88.4 307./13.1
42 28.4 89.4 313./12.7
48 29.3 90.6 307./13.1
54 30.0 91.5 308./10.8
60 30.7 92.1 318./ 9.0
66 31.6 92.8 321./10.2
72 32.4 93.2 334./ 8.7
78 32.9 93.6 325./ 6.6
84 33.2 93.9 314./ 3.6
90 33.4 93.8 8./ 2.2
96 33.5 93.7 57./ 1.8
102 33.5 93.2 91./ 4.0
108 33.6 93.1 39./ 1.2
114 33.8 93.0 45./ 2.1
120 34.3 92.4 49./ 7.1
126 35.6 91.3 39./15.7

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFDL right over NO

[clfenwi]

That GFDL run puts Gustav's point of landfall pretty close to that of Betsy.

Historical perspective, star marks the 48hr point of the 18Z GFDL

[BigB0882]

Betsy made landfall as a category 3. Did New Orleans flood like it did during Katrina? If not, why? I haven't heard stories that it was like Katrina but just because I didn't hear them doesn't mean it didn't happen. Just thinking about how every hurricane is different, maybe this one will be close to Nola but somehow, someway, Nola wont flood like Katrina.

[Weatherfreak000]

Seems SE LA is highest probability. What a disaster....



I evacuated today and thank god I had.