ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

NHC pretty much bang on the consensus of models, a very severe set-up for the Keys there, would imagine that track couuld rake SW Florida with the NE quadrant, would make Fay look like a gentle breeze if it comes through as a major...

[cycloneye]

When does the Hurricane Hunter plane go in?

Plane departs at 11:30 AM EDT and arrives around 1:00 PM.

[ConvergenceZone]

God, I really don't know where this could go...this could recurve or hit Florida or in the Gulf or even be a Yukatan storm if the models keep shifting south.......I absolutely hve no clue!

[gatorcane]

REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW
STRONG IT IS...ALL SIGNS ARE THAT IKE WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
FOR DAYS TO COME.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1444.shtml?

[Aristotle]

If the NHC moves this thing west another time or 2 I think the people in LA are going to instantly go insane. Can you say Katrina without the weakening over FL.

[CrazyC83]

If the NHC moves this thing west another time or 2 I think the people in LA are going to instantly go insane. Can you say Katrina without the weakening over FL.

Such would make no difference (in fact possibly weaken) the storm in the long run as there is a better chance it would be in an ERC over the Loop Current.

[KWT]

Yeah, Ike could be the long feared disaster scenario for South Florida or it could miss as so many have before. I'm hoping for a big miss!

Possibly but its still way too close for comfort, would even need a slight northward adjustment then you've got a Florida hit

From the NHC track the Turks and Caicos looks like they are going to get very close to a hit in about 48hrs time, looks like we are going to see a major hurricane slam the islands, prayers goes out to them.

[tolakram]

[Sanibel]

South of trop points. GFDL verifying (by how much we'll see).

[Scorpion]

People need to quit focusing on what could happen in 5-7 days and focus on the short term. The models will change, they always do. Anywhere from Cuba to North Carolina can be hit.

[HURAKAN]

Something also scary is that the hurricane will be slowing down as it apporaches our area. Extremely scary.

[Bocadude85]

Im going to go ahead and say I think it will pass through the keys... I think I will be fine up here.. this happens all the time.. seems these storms steer away from S Fla

[gatorcane]

Im going to go ahead and say I think it will pass through the keys... I think I will be fine up here.. this happens all the time.. seems these storms steer away from S Fla

What are you talking about? Not the right attitude my friend.

[tgenius]

Something also scary is that the hurricane will be slowing down as it apporaches our area. Extremely scary.

Sandy... I noticed that too... will make the time of effect last alot longer if that were to happen...

Even on that path Miami would get some pretty nasty conditions.

[Air Force Met]

Didn't mean to upset you by misquoting you, as a matter of fact I didn't use any quotes, just stated the obvious. For the record,it was WXMAN57 that said that.

Though you did say the "Floyd-like track +/- 100 miles" several times, that would be a turn to the north before or right at Florida's east coast, correct? To me, you thought it was going to go further north than what the models are showing now. I simply wanted to see if you still think that and/if your reasoning had changed and why. I did not throw words in your mouth nor was I trying to insult you in any way... take a chill pill


Also, I want to thank you, and all the pro-mets on here. I guys are 10000x better than most of the Mets on TV! You don't get paid to post here, and I, as well as most users on this site, appreciate your time to post.

And I totally agree with your "crazy talk" post on the models flopping over the place, which is exactly why I posted my original post to ask if you had any new views on the storm.

Well...at the time I made those statements early on...I did call that before the models did...then late Wed and Thur they came into line with what I was thinking....so yesterday...I was pretty close to the models...and the NHC for that matter. I was ahead of the trend to the N. Now...the trend is back west...and I missed that. I did see the Euro go that way...and I even told my customers to expect a change today (this afternoon) if that trend continued: Either the EURO was leading the way in a trend...OR...it was having a bad run (this was yesterday afternoon)...it was too early to call. Now I can say the Euro was obviously out ahead of the trend (take that all you EURO bashers...GFS lovers!!! ).

As far as taking a chill pill...just wanted to make sure I am on record here. Your post will get quoted by someone else...and so on...and before you know it...I was the idiot who bet money on a recurve...completely missing the US. Its happened before...and even to me before.

Mets have enough problems being right 50% of the time with a handicap.

[Bocadude85]

Im going to go ahead and say I think it will pass through the keys... I think I will be fine up here.. this happens all the time.. seems these storms steer away from S Fla

What are you talking about? Not the right attitude my friend.

Dont get me wrong Im still going to watch Ike I just have a feeling that he will go south of the mainland

[Trader Ron]

People need to quit focusing on what could happen in 5-7 days and focus on the short term. The models will change, they always do. Anywhere from Cuba to North Carolina can be hit.

Exactly !

Models have been changing every 12 hrs. Dang, 120 hrs to go.

[DanKellFla]

People need to quit focusing on what could happen in 5-7 days and focus on the short term. The models will change, they always do. Anywhere from Cuba to North Carolina can be hit.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

It isn't to early to make preparations. IMHO, I don't see how anybody in the cone can not take this seriously.

[Bgator]

The models after recon gets there are the ones to look at. Any pro mets have an opinion on the models shifting to missing fla to the south? Do you guys buy it yet?

[KWT]

The NHC track is sort of like one of the worst case set-ups for the keys in general it seems, can't really imagine a major hurricane smashing into the region head on...

Also the NHC track is still so close that they'd need a hurricane warning I'd guess even if it remains a small cored hurricane which is looking proabable.

Sadly we are reaching the time for the T&C which is very bad for them in that the models probably are very well forecasting the track within 48hrs and the NHC is so very close to them.